Archive for May 2011

EMERGING MARKETS OVERTAKE RICH NATIONS BY 2025 SAYS WB

May 26, 2011

EMERGING MARKETS OVERTAKE RICH NATIONS BY 2025 SAYS WB

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good news has played harmonious cords for the world’s emerging markets recently, as the World Bank released its most honest forecast that they will equalize wealth production with the richest nations by 2025. This wonderful forecast alone is very good news that is cause for celebration this early, as it means the era of hegemonism by the weathiest nations is coming to an end.

Richest nations often than not refer to the members of the OECD which has the G7 nations at the top. OECD economies, during their heydays, produced 60% of the world’s wealth, so you could just imagine their clout. They bullied developing economies no end, and they used the thuggish IMF as the institution to slam bang the poorer nations into submitting to their dictates of authority measures.

That era of OECD hooliganism is now drawing to a close, as the emerging markets make waves as growth drivers of the global economy. Emerging markets are those countries with (a) big populations, (b) growing consistently at a range of 5%-10% per annum, and (c) have a very significant numbers of families earning middle income range of U.S. $6,000-30,000 per annum.

Philippines, my beloved nation, has a population of past 94 Millions as of end of 2011, has been growing at an average of 5% for a decade now, and has 15% of its population at middle incomes (using the global middle-class yardstick). It is clearly among the emerging markets, and is a trend setter in the ASEAN together with the other emerging markets Indonesia and Vietnam.

Other trend-setting emerging markets across the globe are: China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Mexico, Egypt, and Pakistan. Let’s cross our fingers that the likes of Bangla Desh and Nigeria will mutate into emerging markets very soon.

Taiwan, Singapore, and Hongkong do not qualify as ‘emerging’, as they are classified as ‘dragon economies’, besides they are already wealthy. Malaysia and Thailand have relatively small populations, so they don’t qualify as ‘emerging markets’ but are classified among the ‘tiger economies’.

The ASEAN is surely a fortunate region as it has Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam among its emerging economies, aside from wealthy Singapore, the ‘tigers’ Malaysia and Thailand, and small but wealthy Brunei. It is now recognized as a regional powerhouse, and will be a global economic power before this decade’s end.

Producing aggregate income of $1.8 Trillions as of end of 2010, which will double in 2016, ASEAN is surely bound to be a pillar of the global economy. China already reached that status, and India is on its way there too. Japan was the only economic global pillar in Asia by the 20th century, but that situation had radically altered as China surpassed it recently.

For the emerging economies of the world, bon voyage to your journeys to global acclaim and wealth!

[Philippines, 18 May 2011]
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INDIA-PAKISTAN BETTER HARMONIZE TIES FOR YOUNG GENERATIONS’ SAKE

May 25, 2011

INDIA-PAKISTAN BETTER HARMONIZE TIES FOR YOUNG GENERATIONS’ SAKE

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Both India and Pakistan are considered as ‘emerging markets’. The global economy is being driven upwards today by ‘emerging markets’, and so it pays for two such economic powers to finally say goodbye to their antiquated enmities and shift to the high gear towards cooperation, synergy, and mutual respect.

I am no citizen of both countries but rather that of an outside observer. As a development expert who is a strong advocate of the Asian Dream, I reserve my right to opinionate on the state of affairs of my region and continent, and so I strongly go for a harmonized relationship among all countries for the sake of our young and future generations of Asians.

Indians and Pakistanis alike better face it: they belong to ‘emerging markets’ and have the responsibility to build the image of each one of them. Such an image must be one that is emulated by other countries in Asia and more so in other continents who’s very own peoples are looking up to the ‘emerging markets’ today as the saviors of the global economy.

Indians and Pakistanis have new responsibilities on their shoulders, and so they better say goodbye to old enmities. A drastic de-linkage from those enmities and their sources must be quickly undertaken, consensus built the quickest time possible, and bilateral talks for economic cooperation be concurred quickly.

One of the areas for bilateral talks would be the concurrence for interconnecting both countries via land, air, shipping, and railways. Such an effort would render both countries as builders of the New Silk Road, which as I was saying in a previous article must be built today by Asians.

The New Silk Road will give the planet a new breathing space, a new life in an Age of Hope, and so efforts to quash down old enmities must be taken at all cost. By perpetuating the enmities between these economic might of countries that are both scions of Akbar the Great, India and Pakistan are only showing the way to deterioration and Dark Age.

Both India and Pakistan better review the life of Akbar and the Mogul emperors, as the Moguls infused principles of efficiency, planning, cooperation and synergy by diverse stakeholders within the Empire. Those are golden lessons coming from Akbar, and such lessons became parts of the cultural templates of South Asians that make the jewels worth the admiration by other nations.

Akbar stands for efficiency, constructivism, cooperation, prestige projects, urban planning, architectural wonders, and more. Isn’t it great that each of the states of India and Pakistan build their governance institutions following an ‘Akbarian route’?

By persisting on their mutual bellicosity and fuming noses prepared for next wars, I will infer such behavior as ‘Nero complex’, and any Nero is dangerous for Asians. Indians and Pakistanis, please make the choice now: either take the Akbar route or Nero route. There can be no in-between route.

[Philippines, 17 May 2011]
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$67.8 BILLION FOREIGN EXCHANGE BY PH STILL RISING

May 24, 2011

$67.8 BILLION FOREIGN EXCHANGE BY PH STILL RISING

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

A truly good news, making PH as an endeared country for investments by both domestic and foreign stakeholders. $67.8 Billions—end of Apri 2011 Forex—is equivalent to nearly 14 months of imports, a fact that should make Filipinos happy a bit, more so that the forex reserves is coupled with a strong peso that is among the darling currencies of Asia.

The forex reserves is still rising by the way, and is following the general trend in East Asia. There is no better choice for PH to go then to continue to shore up its forex reserves, as the level of international trade, which surpassed the $100 Billion mark couples of years back, will breach the $200 Billion level of two-way trade (imports & exports) by 2015.

PH good performance in forex is for me a cause for celebration, amid the cacophonies of bad political news circulating on a daily basis. Economics had already sealed itself off from bad politics through a firewall, and so no matter what political fires there are, the economy will continue to grow and prosper. The ancient malaise of poverty hopefully would benefit from the sustained growth going on.

PH came from a very long history of lackluster performance as far as the forex level is concerned. Always short of the foreign monies, the International Monetary Fund found every reason to discourage foreign financiers, bankers, and investors from getting into the country. Low forex reserves also became part of the rationale for imposing austerity measures on PH, the effects of which are still felt today even if the country already graduated from the IMF program.

Low forex reserves also went hand in hand with Balance of Payments or BOP deficits. And may we add to the downgrading list the lingering low current accounts deficits. Add to the list the high level of public debts, which at one time threatened to bring back the economy to the stone age.

Those list of ailments have been addressed, thanks to the critique raised by patriotic economists on the present monetary and fiscal policies. The Bangko Sentral (central bank) also continued to strengthen its institutional capacities and regulatory grid, thus ensuring better inflows and reserves of foreign exchange.

By and large, exports comprise the biggest chunk of forex, at past $50 Billions per annum. Overseas remittances (workers & business profits), tourism, foreign investments (FDIs & portfolios), new money from external loans comprise, and ODA comprise the other gross sources. Minus the payments for imports, loans/credit, FDI repatriation of remittances to mother countries, and that gives you the net balance at any given time.

Converting the impressive forex reserves to loan-ready credit is a problem of the Bangko Sentral. The availability of low-interest credit for the poor folks, through micro-finance and cottage industries, is a challenge. Fat purses shouldn’t be made idle for long, as that would mean the high forex reserves is contributing to mass poverty which is a gloomy paradox if that will indeed happen.

[Philippines, 16 May 2011]

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PH MURDER OF CONSERVATIONISTS COULD TRIGGER ECO-FASCIST ARMING

May 22, 2011

PH MURDER OF CONSERVATIONISTS COULD TRIGGER ECO-FASCIST ARMING

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good day from the boondocks west of Manila!

A chilling, cryptic news about the murder of a forest ranger of the University of the Philippines in Los Baňos or UPLB struck a hard cord on the public mind recently. Elpidio Malinao, forest guard for the UPLB that owns and manages the entire Mt. Makiling, was gunned down while doing his sworn duty to help protect the most valued mountain.

Mt. Makiling used to be owned by the late general Miguel Malvar, one of the revolutionary leaders in the wars versus Spain and America. Malvar then donated the highland estate to the budding university over a century ago, as the colonizing Americans built the campus as the agriculture and forestry branch of the newly established University of the Philippines (then based in Padre Faura, Manila).

Measuring thousands of hectares in all, Makiling is home to a highly diversified flora & fauna, which renders it among the world’s prized natural environs. Unfortunately, illegal settlers built domiciles within it, a phenomenon of squatting that also took place in the 555-hectare U.P. Diliman campus (the flagship campus from 1949 onwards). And so the forest guards had to keep busy monitoring the valued mountain against illegal logging and smuggling of rare biological species.

Malinao is just a tiny fraction of a long list of environmental protectors who sacrificed their lives in the act of duty. And that list is getting longer by the month. It counts among them Prof. Leonard Co of UP Diliman and two (2) co-partner professors in UPLB, who were gunned down my army troops while they were gathering specimen for the Lopez-owned energy corporation.

A radio broadcaster, doctor by profession, was gunned down by an assassin in Palawan, just couples of weeks after the Co murder. Way before Co and fellow consultants were murdered, a priest in Mindanao went through the same path to death, his death being among the most celebrated in the island down south.

Those who died for Mother Nature in the Philippines are the true conservationists and guardians of the natural ecology, just to stress the point. There are pretender or quack environmentalists in the country who are photocopies of their equivalents in the West, are paid by sponsors from the Anglo-European oligarchy, and whose blabbermouth contentions for ecological balance come with sums of fat pays.

The quack environmentalists form a part of the rising global eco-fascist movement, who profit by demonizing humanity as the cause behind the deterioration of the natural ecology. Their burnt out verbiage echoes Prince Charles’ “humans are virus” madness, which now translates to classified foreign policies in the USA and EU to see to it that human population be brought down to a manageable 2 Billion by 2050.

PH’s eco-fascist could be emboldened to arm themselves, or even to secretly harbor a ‘call to arms’ mobilization in the coming months and years. While they prepare for the next rounds of conferences and churn out more rubbish press releases, the true nature guardians will die by the ‘muzzle of the gun’, notably the Indigenous Peoples or IPs, fisherfolks, and marginal planters.

[Philippines, 15 May 2011]

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EUROZONE’S PATHETIC 0.8% GROWTH

May 20, 2011

EUROZONE’S PATHETIC 0.8% GROWTH

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Pathetic! This is what I can say of the latest 0.8% growth for the Eurozone during the 1st quarter of 2011. The figure seems to echo the growth for Greece during the same period, of 0.8% growth in growth domestic product or GDP.

As I’ve been saying for a couple of decades now, based on a pattern that was started from 1990 onwards yet, Europe is flat on its back, and that flatness just doesn’t seem to be changing at all. I already heralded the alarming trends way back in the 1990s, as a professor at the University of the Philippines Manila, and shared my notes to tv and radio audiences whenever I was invited as guest resource speaker on economics and social development.

When the Euro was launched, simultaneously with efforts to politically integrate Europe, I saw the opportunity for a slight correction of the stagnant situation of Europe. But monetary solutions to non-monetary problems will only be temporary, and sooner or later this solution will falter. Then the entire stagnation trend will ensue.

The ‘fall of Europe’ economically traces back to the radical return of the obsolete doctrine of liberalism laissez faire. European nations rose to wealth and fame based on physical economy doctrines, so it is best to reconstruct those doctrines the moment that stagnation and decay would take place. But to junk entirely those strategies and policies that brought Europe to where it was till 1990, is to champion madness in the economic terrain.

The same radical embers of liberalization, privatization, deregulation, and reinforcing policies (tax reforms, decentralization, currency liberalization, decreased budgets for social services) were enforced in the United States and Japan, and look at where those powers are today.

Well, the same ‘mad economics’ policies were imposed on the developing economies like the Philippines’, and the results of the austerity measures that were used as sticks to enforce them redound to mass poverty, endemic unemployment & underemployment, low or sub-optimal wages, and hunger. The ‘dragon’, ‘tiger’, and ‘emerging market’ economies have learned their lessons the hard way, and they are today the drivers of the world economy.

Look at these degenerative results of the obsolete ‘mad economics’: (a) de-industrialization, (b) agriculture decay, (c) deterioration of infrastructures, (d) decline of cutting edge in S&T (science & technology), and (e) deteriorating transport facilities. Destroy those sectors mentioned, and you destroy a nation’s economic foundation altogether.

That was exactly what happened to the North—Europe, Japan, U.S.A.! Just make a close scrutiny of Greece, where de-industrialization alone factored so strongly to bring down growth, degrade labor to paltry wages (down by 35%-40%), and saw its remaining wealth looted by greedy, demonic financial predators. The same financiers that looted Asia and led to its financial meltdown in 1997, have destroyed the North and will continue to do so.

Eurozone’s technocrats are mentally bankrupt and should be lined up in the Hall of Shame. Like the Mad Nero that fiddled in the roof as Rome burned, the technocrats and politicians of the entire European Union or EU have been fattening their purses and meteoric prestige rise, while Europe’s folks grovel in the dire effects of austerity measures imposed by the financiers’ puppet bank IMF.

[Philippines, 14 May 2011]

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PACQUIAO VOWS FIGHT VERSUS POVERTY

May 18, 2011

PACQUIAO VOWS FIGHT VERSUS POVERTY

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good morning from the Pearl of the Orient!

Manny ‘Pacman’ Pacquiao, world’s best boxer pound-per-pound and the greatest boxer of the century, just defeated California’s prized fighter Mosley. The fight didn’t only highlight the prowess of the world’s best—and that best could extend to being the world’s top athlete today—but more importantly it heralded Pacquiao’s vow versus poverty in the Philippines.

“Boxing isn’t the greatest fight of my life,” declared the Pacman in front of media. “More than boxing, the greatest fight of my life is to end poverty in the Philippines,” he succinctly proclaimed. For a man who originated from the ‘poorest of the poor’ and who rose like a phoenix in a meteoric ascent to global fame and glory, he knows what he is talking about.

I am optimistic the Pacman will give muscles to his words, walk the talk, and redistribute wealth through two sources: (a) the personal wealth he gained from boxing, entertainment, and modeling for commercial products, a wealth that will continue to accumulate in the years ahead; and, (b) national budgetary appropriations, which he will partly approve as a member of the House of Representatives.

Truly one of the most colorful personalities of this century, Pacman’s value formation seems to have molded him well. From out of his personal wealth, he shares bounties to the poor folks—from the athletes who became poor with their decline from fame, to the underclasses who receive benefits through his foundations. He is a compassionate fighter and citizen, making him one of the exemplars for our youth all over the planet.

Poverty and hunger are ailments that been badly addressed in the Philippines across the many decades of development (the development programs began in 1948 yet). Now a middle class economy, the Philippines just might be trapped in the middle class category as it continues to falter in addressing mass poverty.

The factors contributing to poverty & hunger are complex, as they range from the public policy through institutional strength factors. And there’s the demographic factor of rapid population growth, as 2,000,000 new babies are born each year in the country alone (that doesn’t include those born to the 10 Million overseas Filipinos). Such factors continue to drag down PH esteem as it suffers from unimpressive credit ratings, high corruption index, low global competitiveness, and related global ratings.

Sometimes a country would need some superhero types to shore up the drive to salve lingering ailments. And for the Philippines, luck had struck it as one such exemplary figure, the Pacman of the planet, is dipping his hands to enable the achievement by poor folks of the Impossible Dream.

[Philippines, 12 May 2011]

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ASIAN ECONOMIC POWERS BETTER BUILD THE ‘NEW SILK ROAD’

May 16, 2011

ASIAN ECONOMIC POWERS BETTER BUILD THE ‘NEW SILK ROAD’

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

The recent finalization of the 450-kph bullet train of China is among the top great news showing the positive, constructive life going on in Asia. Such a life has been led by the ‘emerging markets’ of the continent and seconded by the ‘dragon economies’. Altogether, the economic powers of the region are exhibiting to the world what is meant by the idiom ‘truly human’: constructive, cooperative, life-giving.

Now that Asia’s powers have shown that Asians are indeed humans—and not those “halfway between monkey and man” as imperialist White racists once regarded them—it is time to interconnect the whole of Asia via a New Silk Road. That ‘silk road’ could later interconnect with Africa and Europe, but first of all the priority must be to interconnect Asia in order to catalyze synergy and complete the development goals of all member countries of the continent.

The Old Silk Road once linked the Middle Kingdom, at one time the greatest civilization on Earth (circa 600-900 Before present), to the countries west of it, all through the Persian dominions and Arab dominions, and onwards to Byzantium and the Balkans. Ceaseless warring by the abominations of Europe—the mercantile and oligarchic powers of Venice and Normandy on top of the list—closed that road forever.

Those ignominious Dark Ages are way behind us now, though a new Dark Age is now enveloping the planet through the latest destructive pursuits of the Anglo-European oligarchy. Before the Dark Age would come to fruition, it would be best for Asians to bond together, exhibit cooperation and synergy, and build the New Silk Road.

In today’s context, a ‘silk road’ would comprise of a mesh of interconnecting roads, shipping lanes, and railways. Island Southeast Asia, among the dynamic economies of ASEAN, would benefit immensely from this new form of ‘silk route’ that interconnects roads, ships, and railways.

The prototypes of new bullet trains and maglevs should immediately be erected down the ground, while the stakeholders of Asia talk with each other to map out the Silk Road Plan and implement them phase by phase. ASEAN, India, China, Pakistan, South Korea, Japan would in the best position to lead the talks, both on bilateral and multilateral arrangements. Other countries, such as Nepal, Mongolia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, would follow suit the moment that the talks would yield actual results towards an integrated inter-looping Silk Road for the entire continent.

Surely a Damocles sword hangs by the planet today, threatening to unleash terrible woes as weapons of mass destruction will pummel and destroy nations in a new global conflagration. Needless to say, the Western powers are the ones orchestrating the compass towards this new Dark Age, sick as they are with the polarized minds they inherited from their ancestors.

But it’s never too late to decelerate the forces leading to the new Dark Age, and nothing can stop those forces better than Asia. And I would say boldly, that the New Silk Road will be among the best means or strategies to bring a new Age of Hope to planet Earth, humans, flora, fauna and resource endowments.

[Philippines, 07 May 2011]
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