POWER SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST NOW COMPLETE

POWER SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST NOW COMPLETE

 

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

Gracious Day to you fellow global citizens!

 

“Young Man, Go East!” was John Naisbitt’s challenging call unto the youth of the west who are eager to search for opportunities in life. In the late 90s yet, he released his social forecast book Megatrends Asia, which sums up macro- trends happening in Asia that all point out to the compass of economic and cultural growth of the 21^st millennium: East will be center of global development.

 

Futurologists or social forecasters from the West, beginning with Oswald Spengler and Arnold Toynbee a century ago, forewarned the West of the eventual decline in the future. Toynbee used a cyclical wave model to show that a civilization or ‘high culture’ lasts only for 2,000 years, after which it will decline rapidly.

 

Indo-European ‘high cultures’ were nearing the end of that 2000-year cycle in the early 1900s, which prompted futurologists to write daring forecasts of what’s in store for the West in general. Though accordingly the West will sustain the momentum towards high levels of technological development, the overall civilizational maturity has been reached as was nearing the terminal end phase.

 

The American sociologist Daniel Bell followed up on the social forecasts in his brilliant discourses on the Post-Industrial society. Writing in the 1950s yet, upon seeing some Asian economies jettison their amazing industrial growth, predicted that the end of the Western prominence, both techno-economically and culturally, is already at hand. He daringly registered that the year 2013 will be the precise year of the civilizational shift.

 

It took yet younger social forecasters, notably Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt, to follow up on the emerging global developments and observe the amazing rise of Asian ‘dragons’ and ‘tigers’. By the 1990s, both thinkers held the convergent opinion that Asia will be the trend-setter techno-economically and culturally in the forthcoming 21^st century.

  

To complete the picture of global rise to prominence of Asia, Immanuel Wallerstein, then president of the American Sociological Society, explained in the late 1990s that civilization was actually moving towards the East by the 16^th century yet. Tragically, the Western powers intervened to undercut that process, colonized the East via imperious methods of encumbrances, and ended what could have been a gargantuan awesome experience of East-led global development.

 

As Western imperialism, colonialism, and hegemonism considerably declined by the latter part of the 20^th century, so was the momentum of techno-economic, political, and cultural development propelled in the East.  By the latter years of the 1990s, there was no more doubting the predictions made by social forecasters that indeed the compass of civilization will soon move to the East.

 

Upon the catastrophic entrapment of the economies of Europe, USA, and Japan in short recessions that congealed into a Great Recession in 2007, the momentum was finally lost on the West. Japan was only partly saved due to its Asian location and trade positioning strategies, though its economy was flat since 1994 yet. By early 2008, Western global observers released their consensual evaluation that Asia already overtook the West in cutting edge technologies by the end of 2007.

 

By global observers I mean those coming from international magazines, thinktanks, and academe. The economic analysts of the Time Magazine, Far Eastern Economic Review, The Guardian, and Newsweek, for instance, came up with that very upbeat observation, as Asia was growing while the West was stagnating technologically and crashing down economically.

 

It’s now 2014 and many developments that boggle the mind did happen since 2007. As far as wealth production from the ‘physical economy’ is concerned, Asia is leading and showing the way towards keeping the global economy afloat. The West, on the other hand, is mired in ‘bubble economy’ or ‘virtual economy’ cul de sac, which promises only short-cycle growths that can burst again in the near future.

 

The power shift is now complete, though the shift doesn’t mean that the East will supplant the West in global importance. The Eastern mind thinks in terms of inclusive development, in contradistinction from the Western mind that is binary/dichotomous, zero-sum in practice, and pursues development at the expense of the small nations of East and South.

 

Western peoples better accustom themselves to the emerging reality and cease to be bellicose and hostile towards the Eastern peoples whom they pejoratively condescended upon for centuries as “monkeys” or “halfway between man and ape.” Civilization’s root word is ‘civility’, and that means if some nations become prosperous, so must all nations be some day, all marching together in a global ethos of goodwill and cooperation rather than destroying the weaker ones.

 

[Manila, 01 January, 2014]

MANILA: ASIA’S FASHION & SHOPPING CAPITAL, GRADUATES TO DESIGN CAPITAL

MANILA: ASIA’S FASHION & SHOPPING CAPITAL, GRADUATES TO DESIGN CAPITAL

 

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

Good Day to you fellow global citizens!

In 2011, I published an article titled “FILIPINO FASHION DESIGNERS IN HOLLYWOOD: SHOWCASING MANILA AS ASIA’S FASHION CAPITAL” (See: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com/2011/02/filipino-fashion-designers-in-hollywood.html). In that article, I highlighted the maturity of Filipino fashion design, so much that it had reached a level of continental and global acclaim.

Manila has been the fashion and shopping capital of Asia for over a decade already. It once enjoyed that status alongside another ASEAN city, Bangkok. Unfortunately, or tragically, a huge flood beset Bangkok fairly recently, which caused the pull out by many global industrial investors based in it. Bangkok’s own fashion designers left on a diaspora, which took Bangkok off the list of very important cities in the global fashion circuits.

Manila henceforth enjoys a celebrity status for being the sole Fashion Capital. In the latter part of the 20^th century, that envious status belonged to both Tokyo and Hongkong. But as the Bob Dylan poetic line “the times they are a-changing” hauntingly reminds the big players in all fields, so did Manila move up to overtake both Hongkong and Tokyo in the fashion field.

As the title suggests, Manila is also the Shopping Capital of all Asia. That means from East to West, North to South of the continent, Manila is THE SHOPPING CAPITAL. Shopping malls in Manila have the best mall architectures in the whole continent and count among the world’s best, e.g. Gateway Mall’s winning the World’s 11 Best Mall Architectures couples of years ago, which enhanced the power of Filipino fashion and Manila’s shopping magnetism.

That title of Shopping Capital used to belong to both Hongkong and Tokyo as well. So you could just imagine the slide of both cities to 2^nd fiddle as Manila and Bangkok zoomed up meteorically to take that crown, though sadly Bangkok did slide down (God forbids that it will lost the crown that it enjoyed for a short 10 years).

 

Today, there’s another milestone event that is shaping up: Manila’s graduation to a Design Center for the whole of the ASEAN at least. That’s just a minimalist statement coming from the industrialists of ASEAN. Come to think of it, a country or city that had reached Fashion & Shopping Capital continent-wide will likewise get the crown of Design Capital for the whole of Asia.

Filipino consumers might be wondering where are all those Filipino fashion designs being bandied by the tri-media and cyberspace. Well, fellow Filipinos, you only see fashion via the RTWs viewed by your focals every week in the shopping malls, and RTW fashion constitutes only 16% or 1/7^th of the totality of work by fashion designers in the Philippines.

84% of all Filipino fashion designs are generated for the couture business. Many fashion designers in fact do sub-contracting for some bigger fashion design firms whose very own end-users are individual couture fashionistas and corporate retail outlets. With all the great fashion designs going around in Manila and Cebu, all that a Filipino needs to do is get ideas from them, design their own clothes, and look for good cutter and ‘sastre’ (tailor or dress maker) in the wet market to finish the product.

By being a Design Capital means that Filipino fashion designers will  train fashion designers from across Asia and the oceans and also welcome those emerging designers from other countries to do sub-contracting for the big players in Manila. Hopefully fashion institutes will catch up for installation and training of the young designers across the world.

In my own honest opinion, the top universities in Manila—University of the Philippines, Ateneo De Manila University, De La Salle University—should launch fashion departments within their own backyards. It is now time to do so. Pitoy Moreno, top fashion designer, already won his National Artist award, so that recognition should translate into the university’s adopting of the fashion as a line of the arts.

Let’s all expect exciting developments to come regarding the fashion world and it’s partner institution the mall retail business. If generating great fashion sustains the enticement of retailers to ever build majestic mall architectures, then shall there’s joy and fun indeed in visiting Manila and the Philippines by enthused tourists both domestically and internationally.

[Manila, 08 November 2013]

PHILIPPINE ECONOMY TOPS ASIAN GROWTH, FIREWALL AMIDST POLITICAL TURMOILS

PHILIPPINE ECONOMY TOPS ASIAN GROWTH, FIREWALL AMIDST POLITICAL TURMOILS

 

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

For this particular note, I will go back to my reflections on the Philippine economy, while I look forward to expand to ASEAN concerns as ASEAN integration nears by 2015. Philippine economic growth tops ASEAN, which makes it the leading ‘tiger’ of the region today.

 

For a recall, Philippine economic performance showed past 7% growth for the last four (4) quarters already. As of middle of 2013, PH growth was at par with China’s which seems to show some sputtering after past two (2) decades of double digit growth. China’s very own growth pattern may decline even more in the years ahead, thus permitting the PH economy to be on top if it shows a sustained trend over the next couples of years.

 

Economic performance can only be as good as the economy players themselves. While economic policy environment, which is the terrain of politicians and bureaucrats, plays a very vital role in stimulating economic development, in the last instance it is the performance of economic players that counts most.

 

As a matter of fact, it is on the side of the state—with poor expenditures for infrastructures during the first two years of the Aquino administration—that produced a lackluster economic growth. Bad governance stalks the Philippine state, which ends in an overall Weak State, though governance reforms are in order.

 

Incidentally, across the decades, the Philippine economy built a ‘firewall’ that protects it from political caldrons here and abroad. Along with other Asian economies, the Philippines also built a ‘firewall’ against turmoils in the global economy that are caused by the economic weaknesses of the North (Japan, USA, EU).

 

As economists put it, the Philippine economy just entered a ‘virtual cycle’ of growth, thus ending a long arduous history of ‘boom & bust’ cycle. Much of the growth comes largely from the domestic demand itself, showing the great purchasing power of domestic institutions, households, and individuals when combined. Income from international trade plays only a secondary role in the country, which enables it to outsmart the vagaries of the unstable global economy.

 

In the past decades, so much of ‘organization re-engineering’ and corporate governance were infused into the Philippine business structures and processes. Business culture was also properly addressed by internal stakeholders, chambers of commerce, and management professional societies. The result, of course, is better adaptive capacity thru better competitiveness and higher productivity.

 

The trend in Philippine manufacturing had so far shown a consistent generation of high value-added by its labor force, followed by services. The two sectors have shown dynamism so far, thus making them the big drivers of the domestic economy. Agriculture is very sluggish in this respect, which challenges food producers to make up and move up their labor force’s value-added capacities.

 

Note also the trend of consistently high Net Factor Income from Abroad, which will continue to grow in absolute terms over the next decades. Remittances from overseas Filipinos (workers/professionals) continue to grow, contributing past $20 billions annually to the national income. Furthermore, overseas Filipino investments are growing by the year, in highly diversified concerns, so let’s anticipate the repatriations of profits from such business concerns to surpass remittances from overseas workers in the foreseeable future.

 

So far the credit standing of the Philippine economy has been moving up. Fitch’s, Moody’s, Standard & Poors’, and other institutions have been optimistic about the Philippine economic performance and good governance measures, which made them shore up the credit ratings nearer and nearer to the triple A mark.

 

The Philippine economy is still a Middle Income economy as of this moment. It if grows consistently at 7% per annum for succeeding years, then it can double its size in every 6 years. By 2025, PH economy will be 4 times its present size. At the end of that year, PH economy will have entered a ‘mature’ developed economy, and joins the club of 1^st world nations.

 

[Manila, 28 October 2013]

HIMALAYAS’ GREEN TECH BOOMS, WHO OWNS IT?

HIMALAYAS’ GREEN TECH BOOMS, WHO OWNS IT?

 

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

We have a gladdening news about the Himalayan region regarding the potentialities of renewable energy or RE as impetus for economic prosperity. Eight (8) countries in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region particularly manifest high potentials for RE-driven growth.

 

The question that is now rising from the emerging green tech boom there is: who owns the said RE boom altogether? Who is in control, who pays up the greatest for the boom, what yields will there be for the peoples of the 8-country region?

 

Without such a control over the boom’s compass and yields, there is always the danger of financial predators using the RE boom to  extract the greatest profits out of their greedy pursuits, which will cancel out the people-prospering side of development.

 

Below is a report on the subject from the SciDev.net.

 

[Philippines, 27 December 2011]

 

Source: http://www.scidev.net/en/news/himalayan-countries-urged-to-own-their-green-tech-boom.html

Himalayan countries urged to own their green tech boom

Smriti Mallapaty

21 November 2011

[KATHMANDU] Himalayan countries should support and invest in green technologies if such initiatives are to succeed and bring benefits to the economy in the long term, a meeting has heard.

Eight countries in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region are making progress in development and uptake of renewable energy technologies, which can maintain sustainable economic growth for mountain communities, a workshop in Kathmandu heard earlier this month (2–4 November).

Further investments could provide environmental, social and economic benefits to mountain communities, experts told the meeting, which was organised by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

But it is uncertain whether poorer countries could sustain investment in green technology development without external support and this dependency on donor funding could hamper the progress made so far, experts warned.

Suresh Kumar Dhungel, senior scientist at Nepal National Academy of Science and Technology, told SciDev.Net: “The sad part is that Nepal’s efforts are not solely ours, it is all guided by funds from international donor agencies. Policymakers need to realise the importance of a green society.”

Golam Rasul, head of ICIMOD’s economic analysis division said: “The initial cost of renewable energy is high compared with fossil fuel based energy. The technology we are using now is not very cost-effective. Technologically advanced countries should support research in this field.”

Rasul said regional cooperation and transboundary energy trade could offer a way out.

“Bhutan and Nepal have huge hydropower potential but lack technical capacity and large markets, whereas India and Bangladesh are power hungry,” Rasul said.

Ghulam Mohammad Malikyar, deputy director-general of the National Environmental Protection Agency, of the Afghanistan, told SciDev.Net climatic environments may need different green technologies, appropriate for local circumstances.

Prem Pokhrel, climate and energy programme officer at the Alternative Energy Promotion Centre, Nepal, said that almost a million households in Nepal are benefiting from micro-hydro power plants, improved cooking stoves, domestic biogas plants, and solar home systems. This saves an estimated 12 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions each year.

Pokhrel described an ‘energy ladder’ of rising income, where households transition from wood and animal-based fuels to electricity and other clean energy, as they get richer. This also translated into better health for women and children, said Pokhrel. He added that uptake of clean energy can also help generate better income.

ICIMOD organised a conference on Green Economy and Sustainable Mountain Development: Opportunities and Challenges in View of Rio+20 in September, which produced a concept paper ‘Green Economy for Sustainable Mountain Development’.

One of the key recommendations to the national governments from the concept paper was to “adopt alternative forms of energy such as hydropower, wind power, biogas, and solar energy to reduce negative impacts from the use of fossil fuels and fuel wood”.

Link to ‘Green Economy for Sustainable Mountain Development: a concept paper for Rio+20 and beyond’

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UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES IS NO. 34 IN WORLD’S BEST UNIVERSITIES IN ENGLISH

UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES IS NO. 34 IN WORLD’S BEST UNIVERSITIES IN ENGLISH

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good day from the Pearl of the Orient!

The University of the Philippines or UP, my country’s national university and among the esteemed world universities in ASEAN, recently landed at No. 34 rank among the world’s top universities in terms of English instruction, besting many world universities in the West and Asia. This is a gladdening news not only for my country and ASEAN, the news likewise glows my heart to euphoria as I am a sanguine alumnus of the noble UP.

Please note that UP’s English instruction goes further than instruction, as many of its professors and alumni dominate the prestigious literary and scientific writing awards in the country, such as the Palanca award. The UP is also home to professors who are holders of the very prestigious National Artist, National Scientist, and Ramon Magsaysay Awards.

UP’s professors, in other words, are active creators of ideas and ‘best practices’, a legacy that they have passed on to their students. Since the late 1990s, 1/7 of all the country’s patents and copyrights in any given year are those registered by professors, researchers and experts of the University of the Philippines.

Such a high level of instruction, creation, and practices by UP’s professors, who stand out in articulation and philosophic discourse, is a legacy of the American professors of colonial-era history. UP’s first professors were largely Ivy League alumni, seconded by alumni of top state universities in the USA. They were among the first professional volunteers to render immense service of enabling Filipino minds to meet the challenges of the modern world.

UP was envisioned, since the time of the Filipino revolutionary government of Aguinaldo yet, as the premier university that will train tomorrow’s leaders for the country. The American educators took off from that vision, as they were the ones mandated to chart the destiny of the university and provide it with the foundational professors.

The same professors brought along with them AngloSaxon philosophy, culture, and language. The AngloSaxon tradition had stayed with UP ever since, which begins with the perfection of English articulation (oral & writ), mastery of AngloSaxon philosophy (empiricism, positivism, pragmatism, analytic philosophy), critical thinking, debating method & style, and conversational savvy for high culture (legacy of Victorian culture).

UP’s language articulation belongs to the ‘school of Elegance’. The same American professors ensured that discursive elegance will endure, and they succeeded in their noble tasks. Till these days, amid the greater stress for social responsibility in UP, a trend that began in the ‘60s yet with the rise of campus radicalism, which could have shifted articulation to the ‘schoof of Simplicity’, elegance had persisted.

Having been in UP for a long time as student (bachelor’s to graduate school) and faculty (social sciences), I can share endless testimonials to the discursive rigor that one has to pass through in my alma mater. One has to learn elegance first of all and employ the same elegance in practice, with preponderance for your profession’s argot while in the company of professional peers.

Simplicity in articulation comes as you face a broader audience among social clientele, such as the marginal sectors and layman. Sure, learn to talk and write with simplicity as you’d face broader audiences and readers after leaving the UP’s august halls. But first of all, learn to be elegant.

And don’t forget, discourse with depth, be as recondite as the philosophical thinkers that shaped your mental bank and professors that mentored you. Perfect your English, be elegant, be philosophically recondite, and you’ll end up being well cultured and highly-bred.

Passing through UP’s language training is akin to entering an eye of a needle. It is truly tough, yet very psychically rewarding. At least the former dictator Marcos, whose English and philosophical sophistication are as polished as Berkeley’s or Hume’s, won’t scoff at your simpleton-sounding language if you happen to be an activist who wished imperialism and tyranny away, thus earning you astronomical insults from UP’s alumni stalwarts.

By the way, the Ateneo De Manila University, another world university and the country’s best private university, landed at No. 35. De La Salle University, an international-class institution, landed at No. 51. UP, Ateneo and De La Salle form a consortium, and they comprise a triune of universities whose alumni are a class in their own, class sui generis.

Big kudos to the UP, Ateneo, and La Salle for the triumph in the AngloSaxon language!

[Philippines, 12 July 2011]
I

PH AN EMERGING POWER PER UK PRONOUNCEMENT

PH AN EMERGING POWER PER UK PRONOUNCEMENT

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good day to you fellow global citizens!

Just recently, a team from the British diplomatic corps made an unusual pronouncement in Manila: that Philippines is an emerging power. For a world power that once conquered Manila during the world war between the empires of Spain and Britain, the UK remark is truly unusual.

Cordially and tactfully delivered, the remark hopefully could open up more floodgates for greater investments between the UK and PH. UK better bring in more investors—bringing in more FDIs (direct foreign investments) than hot money capital—and show sincerity in relating to its partner in the ASEAN.

Known for profligate engagements in derivatives operations and related speculations, UK has been the center of operations of known predatory financiers led by the Rothschilds and fronted by George Soros, a fact that has been causing chagrin on and ambivalence towards the British by developing countries. UK diplomacy better change that image and change it fast.

On the other hand, it is time for Filipino investors to move into London and Northern Ireland with greater capital intensity. Sure, there are a lot of Filipinos in the UK, with circa 200,000 located there, albeit largely for domestic work. It is time that the population composition of Pinoys in UK better change, with greater numbers of professionals, investors, and aid volunteers (to developing countries) deciding to seek domicile there.

As to the numbers of British citizens located in PH, the number is 10,000. Composed largely of retired seniors, the number is also reinforced by diplomatic professionals, business executives, philanthropic aid workers, artists and students. The composition may need to change soon, as PH is an open society and its multi-cultural environ is a plus factor for British and other Europeans to seek domicile here.

Let’s go back to the contention of emerging power. This contention was culled from the observation of PH as an emerging market, which together with other emerging markets will equalize the OECD powers by 2025 as per World Bank forecast. Emerging markets have large populations and significant middle income consumers (earning $6,000-$30,000 per annum).

PH has around 19 Millions out of its 94 Millions of warm bodies as comprising that global middle class. Small for now and seemingly stagnant, the 19 Millions can be made to grow, and the number is significant vis a vis the total population. All over the ASEAN, a total of past 100 Millions of people are in that category today.

The USA has 160 Millions in the global middle income category. It is no wonder that the World Bank made the forecast, knowing the sustained growth that the emerging markets have been showing. As the USA stagnates along the way, ASEAN will surpass it in terms of doubling its middle income to past the 200 Millions warm bodies before 2025 yet.

With Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam showing the way to what emerging markets are in the ASEAN, it is no wonder that traditional world powers are in a hurry to re-chart the directions of their foreign policies, aimed at creating long-term modus vivendi with the emerging markets.

PH political clout will most likely increase along the way as its economic clout also strengthens. The domestic stakeholders better take note of the new perceptions of OECD powers such as UK on PH, and widen that latitudes for rapid growth and wealth redistribution to accelerate the creation of a middle class past the 50 Million mark soon.

This time around, PH shouldn’t miss out on the emerging global opportunities and perceptions of multi-polarity. Stakeholders should put up or shut up in meeting the gargantuan challenges at hand.

[Philippines, 02 June 2011]
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PH BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SURPLUS DOING GOOD!

PH BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SURPLUS DOING GOOD!

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Magandang araw! Good day!

Another great news from Asia’s emerging market Philippines has been ringing across economic sectors of late. This pertains to the end of April report of a net BOP (balance of payments) surplus of over $1 Billion.

The situation of a BOP surplus has been consistent since the begging of 2011 yet, thus rendering total BOP surplus at over $4 Billions. Add this BOP surplus to the strong peso, high foreign exchange reserves of $67.8 Billions, positive growth of over 5% for the 1st quarter, manageable debt burden (good fiscal health), and one can see a relatively good performing economy as far as macro-indicators are concerned.

The BOP surplus has been largely accounted for by the continuous inflows of foreign remittances by overseas Filipinos and the portfolio capital inflows. This hasn’t translated yet into transforming PH credit standing to A+ high credit grade, but so far so good. The credit standing has already been elevated to a notch in fact.

BOP measures the balance between inflows and outflows of capital, currency, and trade receipts. In the past, BOP deficits have been used by creditor institutions notably the IMF to bamboozle the country into submitting to harsh conditionalities. Now that BOP and other indices have been doing appreciably, the reason for creditors and investors to be stingy or cruel on the country has been reduced.

Since the country has been registering BOP surpluses for some time now, there is no more reason to be lackadaisical about reducing poverty and increasing the numbers of middle income earners. The graduation of around 32% poorer families in the CDE classes to middle income status (U.S. $5,000-$30,000 per annum) will make the country into a true economic powerhouse as an emerging market.

Today, merely 19% of our families fall within the middle income yardstick, and it had stagnated there for years now. Adding 32% to 19% yields 51% of total families at middle income, a status that Brazil attained during the noble Lula’s presidency yet. How much can the private sector can do what it can towards that end, using the gains of BOP surpluses and others, is the big challenge facing the market stakeholders.

[Philippines, 21 May 2011]
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CLOSE DOWN THE IMF, IT’S A PREDATOR BANK!

CLOSE DOWN THE IMF, IT’S A PREDATOR BANK!

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

The world watches as the director of the International Monetary Fund or IMF, Strauss-Kahn, was arrested for rape case. As the case proceeds, talks have been circulating concerning the reform of the IMF, with the option of enlarging the voting powers of the developing countries in it.

Reforming the IMF for this long-time development worker and analyst isn’t the option. Knowing the IMF as a harbinger of cruel austerity measures on debt-burdened member countries, the option for me is the closure of this inutile bank.

IMF conditionalities, imposed upon member countries that are on IMF programs via ‘letters of intent’, have resulted to appalling pauperism on the debt-burdened countries themselves. Studies done in the 1980s and 90s have shown that many countries put under the IMF programs declined in incomes to as low as half of their previous GDPs or gross domestic products.

The same studies have also shown that wherever the IMF made its presence so strong, more people slide down below the poverty line. Often than not, these were struggling developing countries or DCs such as the Philippines that have been under IMF programs for many decades. Today European countries such as Greece are among the IMF guinea pigs for austerity, and already wages were slashed by 30% as part of the austerity measures.

The IMF, in reality, is an ensurer for the stakes of global financiers whose have installed their puppet technocrats to the echelon of the bank. That it is always headed by a European, notably French, is testimony to the nature of the IMF as a criminal bank that legitimizes the lootings by European financier oligarchs of currencies and assets, legitimized via enforced liberalization, privatization, and deregulation policies.

It used to be the sole definer as to whether a DC can qualify for new rounds of IOUs from western creditors. The latter, acting as a syndicated group, would then compel debtors to pay the loans at unreasonably usurious rates, which alone guarantees that the same DC debtors will be so burdened with debts their fiscal health will falter for a long time to come.

Low fiscal health, high debts, and low foreign exchange reserves are then used as yardsticks by investors to decide against investing in the affected DCs. Those foreign companies that are already inside the DCs concerned, may decide against diversifying investments or even pull out their investments altogether.

Knowing the dire impacts of IMF programs on my own country, and likewise knowledgeable about IMF’s thuggish reversals of development trends in other countries, I can only but fume with contempt every time I think of this criminal organization. Not only should the IMF be foreclosed, its leaders should be criminalized and punished, while its assets be redistributed back to the member countries.

There is no room for this predatory bank in the new multipolar global economy emerging. Close it down before its too late that more countries will experience grinding poverty among its masses due to the predator’s policies.

[Philippines, 18 May 2011]
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EMERGING MARKETS OVERTAKE RICH NATIONS BY 2025 SAYS WB

EMERGING MARKETS OVERTAKE RICH NATIONS BY 2025 SAYS WB

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good news has played harmonious cords for the world’s emerging markets recently, as the World Bank released its most honest forecast that they will equalize wealth production with the richest nations by 2025. This wonderful forecast alone is very good news that is cause for celebration this early, as it means the era of hegemonism by the weathiest nations is coming to an end.

Richest nations often than not refer to the members of the OECD which has the G7 nations at the top. OECD economies, during their heydays, produced 60% of the world’s wealth, so you could just imagine their clout. They bullied developing economies no end, and they used the thuggish IMF as the institution to slam bang the poorer nations into submitting to their dictates of authority measures.

That era of OECD hooliganism is now drawing to a close, as the emerging markets make waves as growth drivers of the global economy. Emerging markets are those countries with (a) big populations, (b) growing consistently at a range of 5%-10% per annum, and (c) have a very significant numbers of families earning middle income range of U.S. $6,000-30,000 per annum.

Philippines, my beloved nation, has a population of past 94 Millions as of end of 2011, has been growing at an average of 5% for a decade now, and has 15% of its population at middle incomes (using the global middle-class yardstick). It is clearly among the emerging markets, and is a trend setter in the ASEAN together with the other emerging markets Indonesia and Vietnam.

Other trend-setting emerging markets across the globe are: China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Mexico, Egypt, and Pakistan. Let’s cross our fingers that the likes of Bangla Desh and Nigeria will mutate into emerging markets very soon.

Taiwan, Singapore, and Hongkong do not qualify as ‘emerging’, as they are classified as ‘dragon economies’, besides they are already wealthy. Malaysia and Thailand have relatively small populations, so they don’t qualify as ‘emerging markets’ but are classified among the ‘tiger economies’.

The ASEAN is surely a fortunate region as it has Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam among its emerging economies, aside from wealthy Singapore, the ‘tigers’ Malaysia and Thailand, and small but wealthy Brunei. It is now recognized as a regional powerhouse, and will be a global economic power before this decade’s end.

Producing aggregate income of $1.8 Trillions as of end of 2010, which will double in 2016, ASEAN is surely bound to be a pillar of the global economy. China already reached that status, and India is on its way there too. Japan was the only economic global pillar in Asia by the 20th century, but that situation had radically altered as China surpassed it recently.

For the emerging economies of the world, bon voyage to your journeys to global acclaim and wealth!

[Philippines, 18 May 2011]
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INDIA-PAKISTAN BETTER HARMONIZE TIES FOR YOUNG GENERATIONS’ SAKE

INDIA-PAKISTAN BETTER HARMONIZE TIES FOR YOUNG GENERATIONS’ SAKE

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Both India and Pakistan are considered as ‘emerging markets’. The global economy is being driven upwards today by ‘emerging markets’, and so it pays for two such economic powers to finally say goodbye to their antiquated enmities and shift to the high gear towards cooperation, synergy, and mutual respect.

I am no citizen of both countries but rather that of an outside observer. As a development expert who is a strong advocate of the Asian Dream, I reserve my right to opinionate on the state of affairs of my region and continent, and so I strongly go for a harmonized relationship among all countries for the sake of our young and future generations of Asians.

Indians and Pakistanis alike better face it: they belong to ‘emerging markets’ and have the responsibility to build the image of each one of them. Such an image must be one that is emulated by other countries in Asia and more so in other continents who’s very own peoples are looking up to the ‘emerging markets’ today as the saviors of the global economy.

Indians and Pakistanis have new responsibilities on their shoulders, and so they better say goodbye to old enmities. A drastic de-linkage from those enmities and their sources must be quickly undertaken, consensus built the quickest time possible, and bilateral talks for economic cooperation be concurred quickly.

One of the areas for bilateral talks would be the concurrence for interconnecting both countries via land, air, shipping, and railways. Such an effort would render both countries as builders of the New Silk Road, which as I was saying in a previous article must be built today by Asians.

The New Silk Road will give the planet a new breathing space, a new life in an Age of Hope, and so efforts to quash down old enmities must be taken at all cost. By perpetuating the enmities between these economic might of countries that are both scions of Akbar the Great, India and Pakistan are only showing the way to deterioration and Dark Age.

Both India and Pakistan better review the life of Akbar and the Mogul emperors, as the Moguls infused principles of efficiency, planning, cooperation and synergy by diverse stakeholders within the Empire. Those are golden lessons coming from Akbar, and such lessons became parts of the cultural templates of South Asians that make the jewels worth the admiration by other nations.

Akbar stands for efficiency, constructivism, cooperation, prestige projects, urban planning, architectural wonders, and more. Isn’t it great that each of the states of India and Pakistan build their governance institutions following an ‘Akbarian route’?

By persisting on their mutual bellicosity and fuming noses prepared for next wars, I will infer such behavior as ‘Nero complex’, and any Nero is dangerous for Asians. Indians and Pakistanis, please make the choice now: either take the Akbar route or Nero route. There can be no in-between route.

[Philippines, 17 May 2011]
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$67.8 BILLION FOREIGN EXCHANGE BY PH STILL RISING

$67.8 BILLION FOREIGN EXCHANGE BY PH STILL RISING

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

A truly good news, making PH as an endeared country for investments by both domestic and foreign stakeholders. $67.8 Billions—end of Apri 2011 Forex—is equivalent to nearly 14 months of imports, a fact that should make Filipinos happy a bit, more so that the forex reserves is coupled with a strong peso that is among the darling currencies of Asia.

The forex reserves is still rising by the way, and is following the general trend in East Asia. There is no better choice for PH to go then to continue to shore up its forex reserves, as the level of international trade, which surpassed the $100 Billion mark couples of years back, will breach the $200 Billion level of two-way trade (imports & exports) by 2015.

PH good performance in forex is for me a cause for celebration, amid the cacophonies of bad political news circulating on a daily basis. Economics had already sealed itself off from bad politics through a firewall, and so no matter what political fires there are, the economy will continue to grow and prosper. The ancient malaise of poverty hopefully would benefit from the sustained growth going on.

PH came from a very long history of lackluster performance as far as the forex level is concerned. Always short of the foreign monies, the International Monetary Fund found every reason to discourage foreign financiers, bankers, and investors from getting into the country. Low forex reserves also became part of the rationale for imposing austerity measures on PH, the effects of which are still felt today even if the country already graduated from the IMF program.

Low forex reserves also went hand in hand with Balance of Payments or BOP deficits. And may we add to the downgrading list the lingering low current accounts deficits. Add to the list the high level of public debts, which at one time threatened to bring back the economy to the stone age.

Those list of ailments have been addressed, thanks to the critique raised by patriotic economists on the present monetary and fiscal policies. The Bangko Sentral (central bank) also continued to strengthen its institutional capacities and regulatory grid, thus ensuring better inflows and reserves of foreign exchange.

By and large, exports comprise the biggest chunk of forex, at past $50 Billions per annum. Overseas remittances (workers & business profits), tourism, foreign investments (FDIs & portfolios), new money from external loans comprise, and ODA comprise the other gross sources. Minus the payments for imports, loans/credit, FDI repatriation of remittances to mother countries, and that gives you the net balance at any given time.

Converting the impressive forex reserves to loan-ready credit is a problem of the Bangko Sentral. The availability of low-interest credit for the poor folks, through micro-finance and cottage industries, is a challenge. Fat purses shouldn’t be made idle for long, as that would mean the high forex reserves is contributing to mass poverty which is a gloomy paradox if that will indeed happen.

[Philippines, 16 May 2011]

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ASIAN ECONOMIC POWERS BETTER BUILD THE ‘NEW SILK ROAD’

ASIAN ECONOMIC POWERS BETTER BUILD THE ‘NEW SILK ROAD’

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

The recent finalization of the 450-kph bullet train of China is among the top great news showing the positive, constructive life going on in Asia. Such a life has been led by the ‘emerging markets’ of the continent and seconded by the ‘dragon economies’. Altogether, the economic powers of the region are exhibiting to the world what is meant by the idiom ‘truly human’: constructive, cooperative, life-giving.

Now that Asia’s powers have shown that Asians are indeed humans—and not those “halfway between monkey and man” as imperialist White racists once regarded them—it is time to interconnect the whole of Asia via a New Silk Road. That ‘silk road’ could later interconnect with Africa and Europe, but first of all the priority must be to interconnect Asia in order to catalyze synergy and complete the development goals of all member countries of the continent.

The Old Silk Road once linked the Middle Kingdom, at one time the greatest civilization on Earth (circa 600-900 Before present), to the countries west of it, all through the Persian dominions and Arab dominions, and onwards to Byzantium and the Balkans. Ceaseless warring by the abominations of Europe—the mercantile and oligarchic powers of Venice and Normandy on top of the list—closed that road forever.

Those ignominious Dark Ages are way behind us now, though a new Dark Age is now enveloping the planet through the latest destructive pursuits of the Anglo-European oligarchy. Before the Dark Age would come to fruition, it would be best for Asians to bond together, exhibit cooperation and synergy, and build the New Silk Road.

In today’s context, a ‘silk road’ would comprise of a mesh of interconnecting roads, shipping lanes, and railways. Island Southeast Asia, among the dynamic economies of ASEAN, would benefit immensely from this new form of ‘silk route’ that interconnects roads, ships, and railways.

The prototypes of new bullet trains and maglevs should immediately be erected down the ground, while the stakeholders of Asia talk with each other to map out the Silk Road Plan and implement them phase by phase. ASEAN, India, China, Pakistan, South Korea, Japan would in the best position to lead the talks, both on bilateral and multilateral arrangements. Other countries, such as Nepal, Mongolia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, would follow suit the moment that the talks would yield actual results towards an integrated inter-looping Silk Road for the entire continent.

Surely a Damocles sword hangs by the planet today, threatening to unleash terrible woes as weapons of mass destruction will pummel and destroy nations in a new global conflagration. Needless to say, the Western powers are the ones orchestrating the compass towards this new Dark Age, sick as they are with the polarized minds they inherited from their ancestors.

But it’s never too late to decelerate the forces leading to the new Dark Age, and nothing can stop those forces better than Asia. And I would say boldly, that the New Silk Road will be among the best means or strategies to bring a new Age of Hope to planet Earth, humans, flora, fauna and resource endowments.

[Philippines, 07 May 2011]
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CHINA’S 450-KPH BULLET TRAIN IS WORLD’S FASTEST!

CHINA’S 450-KPH BULLET TRAIN IS WORLD’S FASTEST!

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good afternoon from the Pearl of the Orient!

A stunningly good news was recently released concerning the success of the test drives for the bullet train of China. Built by the Foton state corporation, which also manufactures cars, buses, and a whole line of transport vehicles, the bullet train accordingly capped the 450 kilometer per hour speed.

That speed is the world’s fastest today for the bullet train. I extend my Big Kudos to China and the Foton group for the successful tests!

Let us all recall that Western analysts were of the consensus that the year 2007 was the turning point when Asia surpassed the West in terms of cutting edge technologies. Since then, sector after sector of the economy, from consumer goods to capital goods industries, the East’s cutting edge over the West had been breached.

The 450 kph bullet train is another one of those milestone events that shows the upward ascent of Asia at a time when the West is on a rapid decline. Since the prototype of the Foton bullet train is now perfected, after so many tests were done, it is time to build the commercial prototypes, and the launching of the said trains could come just couples of months away from now.

Japan used to hold the record for building the first bullet train tracks, commercializing the maglev or magnetic levitation technology for trains, and launching the bullet trains right on its very island groups. Those trains ran as fast as 250 kph, and traversed 500-kilometer distances in just over two (2) hours to a maximum of three (3) hours.

Germany followed through with the maglev tech and bullet trains, and launched its own versions of the same right within its territorial confines. Since then, Germany has commissioned to build maglevs cum bullet trains of other countries, following from the successful experiences of Japan about the same development.

It is irrelevant to talk of the USA concerning maglevs, as America neglected the development of its railways, a sector that has been in rut there for six (6) decades now. Fact is, America just erected its first maglev, which runs along the California-to-Nevada corridor, and that project was done by an external player.

However, China’s 450 kph speed is a recent development, showing that it had eclipsed the cutting edge of both Japan and Germany. Such a development is very important, as it practically slaps the arrogance of the OECD countries to which Japan, Germany and USA belong to. Increasingly, the braggadocio and condescension of OECD countries is turning more into ‘wet chicken’ self-pitying mien, as the once mighty coalition of filthy rich countries is on its way down.

As China and Asian countries are erecting and launching projects such as the latest maglev & bullet train, Western powers are raining bombs on Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq, and who knows what country would be the next target of weapons of mass destruction or WMD. Clearly, the difference between Asian cooperation and Western polarity is being felt across the globe today.

[Philippines, 06 May 2011]
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PRINCESS KATE WILL STUMBLE UPON DRUGS & BUSINESS LINKAGE

PRINCESS KATE WILL STUMBLE UPON DRUGS & BUSINESS LINKAGE

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Magandang araw! Good day!

As the honeymoon of Williams and Kate goes on with sweetness reserved only for royalty, facts across the globe will begin to clean themselves of dust. Exposed into clean air, sooner or later the new princess could uncover dark truths lurking behind the shadowy operations of Windsor, royalty and cronies.

Drug trade by British operators surrounding the Queen can be among those items in the closet that Kate will stumble upon. And, the dreadful thing about it: that drugs are used by royalty itself both for leisure and for spiritual ritual purposes. By royalty we mean here the gamut of noble houses and pretenders of cronies in the entire Europe.

As already mentioned in previous articles, royalty in Europe and cronies across continents constitute a hierarchy of evil called the Committee of 300 or C300. As exposed by former British MI6 spy John Coleman (see his book Committee of 300), the C300 was patterned to the hierarchy of the defunct British East India Company or BEAC, a giant conglomerate that had its own army separate yet from the British Army.

Drugs and business do directly relate across the Atlantic, as drug money profits are used to prime up investments in (a) portfolios (stock markets, financial derivatives) and (b) long-term investments. The latter investments are those in banking, manufacturing, import-export, retail, leisure industries, infrastructures, and more.

Without drugs, Western economies couldn’t have become what they are today. Narcotics has a stabilizing function on the Western economies, compliments of drug users across the world where British drugs can get supplies through.

Name the biggest banks in Europe particularly, and mind you, don’t ever get the shock of your life if you’d find out that their investment pools connect directly to the drug trade. The exposes about the matter are summed up in the Executive Intelligence Review or EIR (www.eir.com), so you can go ahead and surf the site of the EIR for your own discovery purposes. From there you can move on to other sites, inclusive of The Guardian, The Economist, and controversial sites.

Most likely the new princess Kate d’ William will get to know the truth behind the drug trade and where the money from it goes to. She will come to know that the big banks in Greece, Spain, Ireland that went agog recently, were bankrupted via financial derivatives by the cronies of royalty acting as frontmen. And to her own shock, the same cronies actually own the very banks that some other cronies are now trying to bring down.

So what’s the rub? Well, simple. Bankrupt the banks, and then let governments save the same banks using taxpayers’ money. The same banks that were used as sharks to loan to taxpayers at usurious rates for diverse purposes, such as housing and car loans, are now being bankrupted, and who saves them? Taxpayers of course!

So while the regulators get busy investigating dirty operations by speculators on bankrupted businesses, the drug trade will continue unhampered. And the same narcotics will fund more businesses to come, including those that are yet to be born.

[Philippines, 03 May 2011]
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COME VISIT PROF. ERLE FRAYNE ARGONZA’S WEBSITE!

COME VISIT PROF. ERLE FRAYNE ARGONZA’S WEBSITE!

The very positive news about the launching of Prof. Erle Frayne D. Argonza’s website was already heralded to the world just recently.

A sociologist, political economist, development consultant, and self-development guru, Prof. Argonza had demonstrated a broad range of capabilities built across his years of professional career development.

To you endeared partners in development and global peace, Prof. Erle Frayne Argonza Website is: http://www.erleargonza.com.

For stakeholders who wish to avail of Prof. Argonza’s services in project development, social marketing, capacity-building, enterprise development, and self-development, please visit the Prof. Argonza website and contact him through the addresses provided thereat. You can also communicate your noble intentions directly through the contact page in the website.

Goodwill and good faith always!

Argonza & Associates

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Come Visit E. Argonza’s blogs & website anytime!

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