Archive for January 2009

2009 ECONOMIC FORECASTS: DEPRESSION, INTERVENTIONISM, REVERSAL

January 26, 2009

Erle Frayne Argonza

Magandang hapon! Good afternoon!

2009 will be another bleak year economically, more so for the North (USA, EU, Japan are topmost). The recession that began with the subprime mortgage bubble burst in America in 07, will ensue with even mightier turbulence, as there are no coherent policy solutions of a strategic nature that can salve the economic ailment on a global scale.

As already articulated by this economist/analyst in various articles, the policy environment must be changed and regulatory mechanisms strengthened to immediately gain business confidence and reverse the tide of catastrophe. On the domestic front, the solution begins by following a New Deal type of policy set, which will bring back the fervor of production-driven growth and full employment. On the international/global front, a new financial architecture must be agreed upon via a global summit called for the purpose, akin to a New Bretton Woods.

The only intervention mechanisms we observe today are bailouts of failing financial and business institutions, which are toxically immoral as those criminal oligarchs are even rewarded for their sordid looting and corrupt practices. Only Russia and China have openly resorted to a New Deal type solution, in consonance with the practices of the late regime of Franklin Delano Roosevelt of the USA. As far as the international-global front is concerned, the concurrence of a new treaty that will resonate a new financial architecture is nowhere in sight.

In the absence of genuine solutions that can stabilize ailing economies on both the domestic and international fronts, the downward spirals will continue, until the economies of the North will hit rock bottom depression that will be worse than the one that crashed the USA, UK and Germany almost a century ago (USA, UK, Germany were then the world’s top industrial & military powers). In the absence of capital control policies up North, capital flight will ensue at dizzying speed, draining their respective countries of trillions of dollars and/or euros at levels far higher than the 2008 drain.
The smart money that will sneak out will find better shelters in the South (emerging markets notably East Asia + India).

The possibility of North-based companies transferring their headquarters to the South is not entirely ruled out. The other option is for the corporate owners to transfer domicile from the North to the South, leaving their ailing mother companies in the hands of trusted stewards. The era of distance remote control-type management by corporate owners could very well begin this year, which will modify corporate governance by no small means.

The positive light for the global economy is that finally the corporate and state leaders will see light at the end of the tunnel and call for a global conference to carve out a new financial architecture. Laissez faire, a cadaver doctrine before the 2nd world war that was revived by the monetarists and greedy financiers, will finally lay to rest as it gives way to dirigist or interventionist economics.
Stronger regulatory mechanisms may be charted this year too, at least on paper.

New Deal, Keynesian, and welfare state doctrines will be blended together to produce an eclectic admixture. Since New Deal has an international facet into it thus rendering it more comprehensive, as the late FDR cogitated the need for international cooperation and development for all countries to end all wars and foment lasting peace, this doctrine will more or less be followed. We will not be surprised if, after the Davos conference, the shape of the future will already be definitively of the New Deal type.

Conclusively, even if the Northern economies will flatten down to zero and/or negative growths, the downward spiral may stop by the last quarter of the year. The full effects of the intervention solutions won’t be felt this year though, as it will take some more years to get them to galvanize. So let us brace for more turbulent winds, while hoping that the storm would finally stop so we can enjoy a delightful holiday season comes December.

[26 January 2009, Quezon City, MetroManila]

Advertisements

GAZA: NEO-CONSERVATIVES’ HATCHERY FOR LARGER CONFLAGRATION

January 25, 2009

Erle Frayne Argonza

Magandang gabi! Good evening!

Modern Israel had ceased to be an underling state that it used to project itself during its early historic phase. It had grown into a regional power, its military might made possible by massive infusion of western aid and the economic prosperity resulting from that external intervention. It has 300 nuclear warheads, per intelligence reports and revelation by former US president Jimmy Carter, and is a key pawn of the Western financier oligarchs in their political pandemics worldwide.

The ascent of the neo-conservatives in the USA, led by the likes of Cheney, had surely been a great boon to the fascistic forces within the Israeli Establishment whose appetite for aggression has been driven by obsessive desires to carve out new territories—for the rambunctious nation—outside Israel’s borders. A convergence of mindsets between two fascistic forces, in the USA and Israel, would surely fit into the mad plan of hegemonistic Anglo-European-American oligarchs to ignite another world war, which coincides with the crashing recessionary economies in their backyards.

To contend that the latest conflict between Israeli forces and the Hamas is merely a brawl between neighbors is idiocy fit for the blind and simpletons. The neo-conservative agenda, hatched by Cheney & comrades, is to hook up Israel in an alliance with Sunni Arab states and pit the alliance against Shiite Islam led by Iran. Israel was simply compliant with agreements already preset as early as late 2007 yet, when neo-cons officials frequented the region and forged this Zion-Sunni.

That the conflict has already quite spread to a new domain, namely the Israeli-Lebanese rebel conflict, shows that some hidden forces are working to expand the conflict to one that is region-wide. A terrorist 3rd force in Lebanon, which the British & American intelligence could have created (just as they did in my own country by creating and funding the Abu Sayyaf), was hatched with the purpose of widening the latitudes of the conflict.

Now that the neo-conservatives were effectively booted out of power, the world community can dowse water on this mad conflict which doesn’t serve the welfare of both Israeli and Palestinian peoples. Let us hope that the new US president, Barack Obama, will be informed and advised more wisely by cooler and saner officials in Washington about the real score in Western Asia: that the conflict better end up and a ceasefire declared.

Let us also hope that the leaders of Israel, Palestine, Eqypt, and Jordan, who are all stooges of the Anglo-European financier oligarchy, would recognize to some fresher insights about how to attain stability in the region, by listening to new leaders in Washington who, in turn, should work to veer away America from the mighty clutch of the same oligarchic cabal. The prophetic timeline for World War III is not a fixed one, but rather a flexible timeline that can be changed, leading us away from abominable conflagration to world peace and cooperation.

[25 January 2009, Quezon City, MetroManila]

WELCOME 2009!

January 24, 2009

Erle Frayne Argonza

Hello Fellow Earthans! Hello world! Welcome 2009, the Year of the Ox!

This economist, sociologist and self-development guru has been hibernating for awhile as part of a year-starter contemplation period. I’m now formally ending this hibernation, and will resume sharing my thoughts about world events and wisdom.

The holiday season is surely a period of excitement and fast-moving events comprising of parties, reunions, and chows. Like everyone else, I was swept away by the enchantment of this unique period, and ended the year with over 10 pounds of extra weight.

In January 1-4 I took some time out to visit the Sabang Beach of Puerto Galera, Mindoro. An excellent place for scuba diving, this spot is just contiguous to two (2) other wonderful sites, the La Laguna Beach and Coco Beach. I spent the tour with my cousin Evadne Argonza-Bautista and her other half, Rudy Bautista, chief engineer and overseas seafarer, who brought along their two starseed kids Raissa and Randoll. I also had a reunion in the beach with my cousin Ricky Argonza, a master scuba diver, who manages the Garden of Edens resort (German-owned).

I was just about to begin orienting myself to the new year, by detailing my annual battle plan (goals) and burning the excess fats gained from the holidays, when my Dad’s 2nd wife (Lorna Argonza) suddenly died last January 15 while travelling back by bus Manila. Being the only son of Dad (Steve Argonza) who’s here in Manila (all of my sibs are in the USA), I had to conduct my filial duties and be the burial event organizer-operator for my old man. The lady, Tita Lorna, was finally buried last 20th of the month. The day after, the 21st, saw me hit by allergic rhinitis, a recurring ailment, after all the stressful though preparations for the burial.

Still nursing my rhinitis, I finally am finding the time to catch up on my goal-refinements, fat burning gym sessions, and reflections about global events. The year opened up with Gaza (a spill over from late 2008), the pessimistic facet, and the installation of Barack Obama as US president, the optimistic facet. We will all be watching the aftermath of these two events for sure, as they contribute to the shape of 2009 as a whole.

We’re also preparing for the celebration of the start of the Year of the Ox, which is a legacy of the Chinese culture. I’ve already bought new crystal materials for balancing my home, and an ox figurine for my work room & study. A positive year this will be in terms of bountiness, as the underlying Tao philosophy of the celebrations so explain.

Well, Fellows, let’s hope for the better for 2009 in terms of moving out of the economic and politico-economy cul de sacs that our planet has been seemingly entrapped into. Welcome the Ox Year with a Big Bang!

[24 January 2009, Quezon City, MetroManila]