ZAIBATSU & WESTERN OLIGARCHS’ ALLIANCE CRAMBLES, WAR LOOMS!

ZAIBATSU & WESTERN OLIGARCHS’ ALLIANCE CRAMBLES, WAR LOOMS!

Erle Frayne Argonza

Magandang hapon sa inyong lahat! Good afternoon to you all!

Just about a few weeks back, the world was shocked (as per media sensationalism) by the failures of new Toyota models on the road, leading to deaths of over twenty (20) riders in the USA. Within hours of the news, panic arose among riders, congressional investigation began, and Toyota was compelled to pull back 7-digit cars-in-use from the roads for retrofitting works.

The world watched as Toyoda-san, scion of the Toyota zaibatsu founder, wept before the congressional committee that investigated the fiasco and near-to-maelstrom in the markets caused by it. I wished I could have extended commiseration to Mr. Toyoda, but knowing the cold-blooded greed of the oligarchs made me adopt the scientific attitude of detachedly observing a species exhibiting behavior under duress.

My take of the matter, which some economists and investments analysts in the USA incidentally confirm, is that an organized bashing of oligarchs of Asian origin the West is in progress. Using typical Freud-type analysis, I’d say the bashing is very large-scale, with the Toyota- and Hyundai-bashing representing merely the tip of an iceberg, or better still a mere scratch in the skin surface.

My preliminary thought on the matter is that the Anglo-European oligarchy, led by the greedy financiers whose notoriety in looting the portfolio & derivatives markets led to the recent global financial meltdown, is calling it quits with their long-time partners from East Asia. The marriage is over, and so we better expect de-mergers and hostile take-over by the Western oligarchs of the assets and/or enterprises of their East Asian counterparts.

To recall, after the World War II, humanity was confronted with a new polarization forged as the Cold War between capitalism and communism. New spheres of influence have to be crafted pronto by the world powers, with the West securing Japan’s zaibatsu loyalty through sticks (force, de-militarizing Japan) and carrots (permitting Japan to achieve industrial prosperity, but subordinated to the West).

The zaibatsus (Japan), chaebols (Korea), emerging oligarchs of Taiwan and the Far East, zamindars (India), and more, or those landlord-gentry elites who were enticed to invest in industries and emerging commercial enterprise, sooner or later found no better recourse than to ally themselves with Anglo-European oligarchs (bankers, financiers, industrialists, rentiers) in order to preserve family wealth and elevate these to new levels.

Fast-forward to the 1980s, when the zaibatsus reached their peak of prestige brought about by the gigantic strides of Japanese firms, globalization became the buzz-word as Japanese technocrats cajoled the West into creating a borderless world economy. Zaibatsus thus made headway in their merger schemes with Anglo-European businesses, and nary a conglomerate in the West refused the sweet offers of the likes of Sony and Toyota to name some representative East Asian champions.

The last of such waves of mergers and ‘Asian offensives’ in the west saw the Indian tycoons such as Mittal investing heavily in the western backyards, and merging with western businesses when opportunities do open up (e.g. Mittal steel). Asian emerging markets’ own companies followed through this wave, with the likes of San Miguel Corp of the Philippines buying NatFood of Australia at one time (before reselling/divesting).

It seems that the ever-predatory financiers of the West will have nothing like a permanent alliance with the Asian taipans & nascent oligarchs. Just like in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies among global corporate owners. What is nasty about the matter is that the western oligarchs are showing their fascistic, if not racist propensities too soon.

The Toyota-bashing will sooner or later find its equivalent in other industrial and commercial concerns. The goal of the western financiers is to eventually take over the eastern assets, such as what the Mittal steel exemplifies, where Lakshmi Mittal is but the nominal controlling shareholder of a steel giant that is actually now owned and controlled by the pals of George Soros & House of Rothschild.

Whether the zaibatsu-bashing will sooner or later lead to a crack in the Trilateral Commission—created by the same predators to consolidate the wealth and powers of the Northern oligarchs (West + Japan)—remains to be seen. The zaibatsus won’t take slights that easily, and surely enough they won’t take betrayals from their Western counterparts lightly.

The zaibatsus possess enormous quantities of precious wealth that the Western financiers (whose wealth is largely useless debt papers and bills) could only salivate upon: gold bullions. Such bullions were amassed by the Imperial Japanese state in Asia during the heydays of militarist onslaughts (‘36-‘45). Stashed safely inside underground bunkers and cross-island tunnels, they were utilized to bankroll the industrialization of Japan (by zaibatsus, with Emperor Hirohito’s blessings). These must must be worth hundreds of trillions of dollars today, if we estimate them to be at least two (2) million tons.

Whereas the western financiers cannot operate alone as they have to collaborate with each other (e.g. Venetian, Dutch, German, English financiers coming together in gigantic trusts), the zaibatsus can go it alone and wage business offensives using their enormous assets. The same zaibatsus can also finance wars so facilely, such as they’ve done for the USA’s wars in Iraq (early 90s & 2001-02).

The zaibatsus can always choose to go their own way, foment new militarism in Japan, and create a new sphere of influence that can rival the western powers’ (if one can call bankrupt states in the West as powers). Note that at this time, within a span of less than a year, Japan can create nukes arms and unleash its version of the Tesla Earthquake Machine (TEM), simply by employing networks of yakuza and global mafia families to get their WMDs to terror groups, while reserving their own military assets for more ambitious confrontations.

How the latest brickbats between the western oligarchs and zaibatsu-Asians will figure in the forthcoming Philippine elections is something worth observing by strategic research analysts. Whether the Philippines remains in the sphere of influence of the western oligarchy, or move closer to zaibatsu orbit via covert maneuverings, will be contended in the next polls.

The Philippines may decide to install a nationalist government, and stay clear from the line of fire between two potential oligarchic adversaries. And, hopefully, the new government in Manila will sharpen its observation of changing oligarchic templates, and position itself to forge the ASEAN into a regional power later free from encumbrances with the aforesaid contending oligarchic factions.

[Philippines, 23 March 2010]

RP MAIN TARGET OF GLOBAL OLIGARCHY’S MACHINATIONS

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good day! Magandang araw!

The global oligarchy, alternately called New World Order (NWO) or ‘Committee of 300’ or Military-Industrial Complex, is again hatching a contingency move across the planet. Little do East Asians know that the same elites have moved closer to home to fulfill their latest catastrophic plan, as exemplified by my Filipino compatriots who are as somnambulistic as the herds of the planet.

As already alluded to in earlier articles, the global oligarchs are using the 2010 elections in the Philippines to mask their plan. Being both scientist and mystic, I have the privilege to use both empirical-analytic and mystical-paranormal methods to buttress my claims, and in this note I’d share some of my meditation visions about their plot.

Over the last three (3) years or so, I articulated about the coming collapse of the global economy, the attempt to unify Europe under a neo-Bonapartist state, the modus Vivendi of the EU & US to install a 4th Reich, and the launching of a 3rd World War. The oligarchs & military-technocratic-political subalterns have hatched the plan apparently fairly well, through their organizational platforms –Bilderberger Group, Trilateral Commission, Council on Foreign Relations, Royal Institute for International Affairs, and NATO.

The global economic collapse already took place, while its flames still rage strongly in the USA-Europe-Japan trilateral zone. However, the plans to install a Bonapartist Europe, a 4th Reich, and launch a 3rd World War (via Sunni vs Shiite conflict) have been stalled. To simplify the matter, saner and more enlightened leaders inside the states, markets, and civil societies of the trilateral zone have prevailed, and have effectively neutralized or at least delayed the elites’ evil plans.

Indubitably, the oligarchy is terribly alarmed at the audacity and effectiveness of the opposition mounted against them. Alarmed more so to find out that the opposition is uncoordinated, launched as they are from more circumscribed interests of nations and social sectors fighting for survival against the predatory onslaughts of the greedy elites.

It isn’t difficult to realize that a determined predatory force will fight tooth and nail to maintain its ascendancy worldwide, and will plan a contingency move anew. Where the next focused target lies is everyone’s guess. Would it be Latin America? East Asia!? Africa?

RP is home to the hyperspace portal serving as short-cut to galaxies, and this portal (per my visions) has been re-opened by Light Forces after being closed for a long time. Any predatory force fighting for its survival, in the light of the entry of a 3rd Force (galactic fleets of higher dimensional order and superior firepower) arriving en masse on Earth, would be forced to reckon with the Philippines first of all as a possible escape route (NASA program’s being revived for this classified purpose to bail out the elites to other planets and star systems).

Philippine nationalism is also rising, and this has to be check-mated once and for all in the oligarchs’ perception. This nationalism is intersecting with the rise of the ASEAN as a region-state, and it won’t be long before the Philippine nation and its neighbors will realize that their region was formerly the Majapahit Empire, that they were thus duped by the Western powers into believing for some time that they were separate nations and states (nations crafted by the same powers). They are one nation, and they will prevail.

Lastly, there are the huge hoards of gold the country possesses. No, the hoard doesn’t belong to the Marcos family, but comes from diverse sources. A large amount of the bullions were a heritage of the Majapahit Emperor and passed on to descendents, many of whom are Filipinos. Some other large hoards remain unearthed, but lie secured deep within the surface, created a long time back by friendly forces—underground civilizations (cities) and elemental life-forms (certain forces possess the alchemical powers to convert ordinary stones into gold). I’ve done meditation visions before on the gold hoards, and was almost overwhelmed at the sight of the precious metals filling up large bank vaults specially designed for them (these are the bullions traceable to the Majapahit princes).

The oligarchs’ financial empire—created through liberalization, deregulation, privatization, globalization, and bubbled through legitimized looting and swindling—is now eroding rapidly, and it won’t be long before massive risings across the globe may lead to the overthrow of the oligarchic puppet states, confiscation of properties (watch oligarchs’ assets sequestered in Russia), and decapitation of the perceived criminals and their subaltern war criminals. Before the total collapse of the NWO’s global empire happens, drastic moves have to be done. The predators badly need the gold to bankroll their assets and sustain ascendancy of power.

Amid all the synergized anarchy-–or synarchy—across the globe perpetuated by the same predatory oligarchic families, moves are now being made to get the Philippines at all cost. The Pentagon’s men are moving to possibly install puppet generals to power in a failed election scenario, while the Anglo-European financiers eye the installation of liberal candidate Noynoy Aquino and crocodile factions to power.

Meanwhile, very surreptitiously crystalline receptors were installed in Luzon notably the Laguna Lake area, under the guise of ecology projects. I was able to monitor this move through visions, even as I was almost duped by a Caucasian lady who contacted me through email to join their installation of ‘healing crystals’ in a lakeshore town in Laguna (the lady’s name and email messages are still with me). These receptors will be used to re-echo submarine earthquake vibrations detonated by possible combination of nuke and Tesla Earthquake Machine or TEM.

It is a likely eventuality that a quake can be calibrated to yank the Marikina fault a bit that can ruin Manila into flattened debris. Producing 1/3 of the nation’s wealth, a flattened Manila means total devastation to the nation that is struggling hard to end mass poverty and achieve development maturity by 2016 or so.

The devastation of the Philippines via submarine nuke and TEM could also distort or warp the electromagnetic field or EMF of the islands and keep the cross-galactic Light Forces at bay, at least for a while. This will give the elites a window of opportunity to escape thru another route, as the galactic reinforcements will take a bit longer to traverse space via longer routes.

The possibility of a Galactic Force or G-Force intervening for Earth humans or Terrans, whom they possibly bred several millennia back, is becoming more manifest by the day. World powers are being urged to reveal their classified research information about the matter, yet they refuse to do so, even if the Vatican itself (via its department of UFO studies headed by a cardinal) already did its subtle message for the UK, USA, and Russia to broadcast the revelations (Vatican already released its report about alien bones and skull in its collection). The elites are obviously scared of this G-Force and are planning to hide underground and/or escape by space.

Just exactly what will happen to this broad contingency plan is worth our watch. Let us begin monitoring, and sharing information about the matter. Meanwhile, my fellow Filipinos sleep, amid murmurs of catastrophe.

[Philippines, 23 March 2010]

FAILURE OF POLLS: WHO GAINS

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good day to you all!

Manila’s mass media has been filled with news recently about the possibility of a failure of the May elections. The failure scenario is being forecast at a time when Filipinos will have a first taste of computerized elections.

For everyone’s clarification, the failure to computerize previous elections had got nothing to do with absence of expertise locally who could design software and hardware systems customized for poll purposes, since our infotech sector here had reached maturity sometime back in the 1990s yet precisely due to high-level expertise here. Our computerization has failed because dirty politicians (who were accustomed to cheating) and poll officials (COMELEC) have been exhibiting a ‘cultural lag’ in adapting to rapidly emerging technologies, hence their effective barring of poll computerization in the past.

Finally here we are, dangled with the state-of-the-art poll tools and methods, now ready or so it seems to face the polls with the new game. Albeit, in the process of the preparations for the polls, obstacles kept on cropping out from the mouths of poll execs, thus rendering the entire exercise as low in credibility in terms of public trust.

To make matters worst, the post of Chief Justice (CJ) of the Supreme Court has been rendered vacant. So crucial is the CJ as the magistrate is the one mandated to formalize the oath-taking of execs who win in the polls. Capping this rather toxic issue is the controversy in the choice of the next magistrate.

The clear scenario is that, after the polls, the positions of all the top state posts will be vacant, leaving no one to steward the nation during the brief transition to the time when execs will be declared winners and will then begin their respective incumbencies. To add incendiary overtones to the already heated discourses on the matter, which were spiced up with protest rallies of late, a state official (USec Planas) pronounced the possibility of a take-over by the military as a pre-emptive measure to avoid anarchy during the period of vacancies.

Belaboring the obvious, like unto some kindergarten quacks, political stakeholders have already started accusing palace officials as the diabolical plotters and greatest beneficiaries of a poll failure. Supposedly, military’s top chief Gen. Bangit takes over government, and then declares outgoing Gloria Arroyo as president on an extended term, thus perpetuating the governance by the ruling Arroyo family.

What is less obvious, which many would fail to realize, is that the neo-conservatives or ‘neocons’ who are well entrenched in the US Defense establishment is again into another set of synarchic destabilization in the region, and they are using their pawns inside the Philippine military to do their bidding. The country’s military maintains its organic ties to Pentagon and is ever-ready for some destabilization from the top (Washington & Europe).

The neocons and global oligarchic operators have been behind the institution of insurgent groups in the country, to create a situation of perpetual polarization and anarchy. Insurgencies are part of the politico-military games of the global elites (military-industrial complex is another term), and the game goes to the extent of our own military being cajoled to sell arms to the insurgents in order to renew armed confrontations, leading to more arms sales and ballooning the wallets of corrupt military & state officials.

If indeed Arroyo is amenable to being re-instated as chief exec on an extended term, she knows the arrangement as entirely hatched from Washington DC. Whatever role she performs in the latest political fiasco is only peripheral, she being just another pawn in the broader agenda of the neocons and global elites for the southeast.

The possible election of a nationalist regime, led by the noblesse senator Manny Villar, is perceived as a threat to the neocons and global oligarchs. Such a regime would put an end to the insurgencies most likely, an act that would snuff off the polarity games of the elites and hurt the pockets of corrupt military & state officials who would lose their contract payolas and gains from arms procurements.

Another scenario that could happen is that a people power by the Yellow Forces will be launched, bringing us back ala déjà vu to 1986. Seeing that the mass rising is unstoppable, the generals would then opt to support the civil disturbance and the presidency of Noynoy Aquino, even if it turns out that this mediocre candidate tails in survey ratings and poll returns.

Noynoy is the candidate choice of a greater wing of the global oligarchy led by the Anglo-Dutch financiers, with their puppet personages active in the Makati Business Club. The clerico-fascist wing (which has links with the Vatican) is with this conglomerate, with one of their leaders at the helm of the CIA-initiated Namfrel.

A hyper-convergence of the efforts of these unholy puppets of the global financiers/oligarchs and their militaristic subalterns (neocons) isn’t far-fetched a reality, as one ought to recognize. Since the neocons faction has been marginalized with the recent pre-eminence of the liberal-to-left factions of oligarchic subalterns (eg. Democrat victory in the USA), it is most likely that RP’s generals will play the game and ride the wind whichever it will go, and will not attempt to put up a junta that is too autonomous from their Pentagon sponsors’ agenda.

With just around seven (7) weeks before poll day, the plot is unfolding fast and making the polls more colorful though threateningly crisis-filled. Let’s see whether the cry-wolf propaganda about failure & military take-over will spoil the polls at all.

[Philippines, 21 March 2010. See: https://unladtau.wordpress.com, http://erleargonza.blogspot.com%5D

POVERTY: PHILIPPINES‘ ACHILLES HEEL

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Poverty is the Achilles’ heel of the Philippine state, and will be so for at least two (2) more decades. Amid the appreciable growth the economy has sustained so far, with the national economy doubling in just eight (8) years during the incumbency of president Gloria Arroyo, poverty remains very high.

If we go by the yardsticks of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Bank, the Philippines has been performing fairly well on wealth production as a whole, so much that the country graduated to a middle income status by the turn of the century. No more a poor economy by world standards, yet the country’s poverty increased from 28% in 2001 (when Arroyo took over the presidency) to 33% today (per latest government statistics).

Paradoxical, come to think of it, that while the economy has been growing and had moved to middle income status, more people have become poorer. Tough, very tough, is the task of mining for the ‘gini in the bottle’ that would reduce poverty considerably to a negligible 5% or less, a level that is easily manageable and where state and communities can simply decide to fully subsidize the remaining poor.

Whether the Philippines can meet the UN’s Millenium Development Goal of cutting poverty by half in 2015 seems much clearer now to social forecasters: the dream is elusive and unattainable. Not even if the economy will double again from mid-2009 to 2015 which is a most likely development.

The Philippines’ poorest happens to be the rural populations, notably the fisherfolk sector where malnutrition runs the highest rate (2/3 of children/families). Rural population is now down to 34% or 1/3 of the population, while the urban peoples comprise 66% or 2/3. Urban to rural poverty ratio is 1:2.5, meaning that for every 1 poor person in the cities & towns, there’s an equivalent of 2.5 persons in the countrysides.

The message is clear to the next government (formed by the new president after the May polls this year) that the attack zone on poverty should be the rural population. Both antipoverty and anti-hunger programs should be initiated at very high levels in the countryside to be able to bring down total poverty by a large degree.

Failure to solve rural poverty in the long run redounds to perpetuating insurgency. Even if the present insurgent groups would concur peace pacts with the state, new insurgent groups will emerge again in the foreseeable future should the rural folks remain paupers.

Urbanization is now moving up, and with its growing eminence has come the rise of new cities. Citification has seen the incomes of communities treble by leaps and bounds, thus permitting the same communities to spend on infrastructures and social development.

Left to themselves, without massive migrations from rural folks, the cities can accumulate enormous income surpluses to solve unemployment, poverty, and malnutrition (both hunger and obesity). Philanthropic groups consequently rise from civil society and market players, and boost surplus production for solving poverty.

However, such is not the case even as the migration of the poor from the countryside to the cities continues in steady waves. So this brings us all back to the challenge of solving poverty right at the backyards where the poorest are most concentrated. This means that the food producers shouldn’t be left out in the development game, even as rural development should be brought to its next level.

Goal-wise, the realistic target is to reduce poverty from 33% in 2009 to 25% by 2015, or an average of 1.33% reduction per annum. Means-wise, an appreciable mix of good governance, right socio-economic policies, and strengthening of institutions would do a long way to bring down poverty altogether in the short run.

Urban population will grow to 70% around 2015, while rural population will go down further to 30%. With lower rural populations to manage by then, there is no more reason for government not to be able to do something to solve poverty. And we say government, because the increase in poverty largely came from governance-related factors such as poor absorptive capacity (to handle large budgets), inefficiency, graft, poor inter-governmental coordination, and low political will to pursue audacious solutions to daunting problems.

In 1989, this analyst wrote an article “Prospects of Poverty Alleviation in the 1990s,” a piece that I delivered as a symposium lecture at the University of the East (Prof. Randy David was also a speaker). At that time, poverty was a high of 49%, while urban to rural poverty was 1:2.1.

Since 1989, we have seen poverty reduced from 49% to its present level of 33% (a 5% increase since 2001 though), although rural poverty moved up paradoxically during the same period. Poverty reduction is not really impossible, as evidenced by the huge reduction across a 20-year period. Bringing it down further to 25% by 2015 is a doable target.

So let us see how the nation will fair under the next government of the republic (after May polls), when we see a new set of political leaders and cabinet members installed to power. As I’ve mentioned in earlier articles, my standpoint is that a nationalist coalition, such as what the present candidate Sen. Manny Villar, is most equipped with policy paradigm and tools to deal with the Achilles heel of pauperism, aside from the competence and visionary acumen of the noblesse senator.

By nationalist, I mean that of moving towards a regulated market and fair trade, with high propensity for ‘physical economy’ policies. We can no more return to the days of liberalization policies that saw the economy crash down in ’83-’85, stagnate for a time and grow again before hitting the next recession in ’97, and finally move up to middle income status only after a turtle pace struggle taking three (3) decades.

Liberalism and its propensity to be pro-Big Business and Big Landlord is a big no in our fight against poverty, whether in the Philippines and other nations of the globe. In my country, nationalism is the antidote paradigm and social technology watershed to reverse decades of liberal policies and solution to poverty. I’ve been echoing this theme since my teenage years yet, and remains steadily anchored on it.

[Philippines, 20 March 2010]

PHYSICAL ECONOMY IN RP’S 2010 POLLS

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

The debates by presidential candidates have been reverberating the media audiences in the country for couples of weeks now. The issues have ranged from those that are social policy-oriented (subsidies to poor, health, education, housing, jobs) to macro-economic policies (sustaining growth, accelerating development) and moral policies (corruption, reproductive health). Some articulations of foreign policy were also heard from the competing gentlemen.

Seemingly confusing in their broadness, somehow the various forums for the debates (not actual debates but simply presentation of each one’s opinion about policy questions) did give a semblance of information-based campaigns by enthused candidates. This is already quite a departure from previous polls when debates were sparse and superficial, and should be lauded by observers.

What this analyst, who is a public policy expert, wishes to see clearly in the debates is the economic issue of whether to highlight the physical economy policies versus the virtual economy in the management of jobs and wealth creation by the next government. I raised this same question in the last presidential poll in the USA that pitted Senators Obama and McCain in a neck-to-neck fight. I shared my own assessment then that Sen. Obama resonated nearest to a physical economy inclination and should be supported by USA’s voters.

To reminisce a bit, the national economies saw the radical ascent of Reaganomic policies of privatization, deregulation, liberalization, and reinforcing policies beginning in 1980. Such policies led to the rapid integration of nations into a global economy, liberalized the cross-border flow of financial and monetary assets, and eventually led to the predominance of the ‘virtual economy’ based on predatory finance.

In the mid-90s, the Philippines saw its investments structure alarmingly imbalanced, with 86% or 6/7 of total comprising of portfolio capital, and only 1/7 or barely 16% in real or physical economy investments inclusive of FDIs (direct foreign investments). As early as 1989, I already raised the alarm bells that excessive radical liberalization of the economy could jeopardize the financial sector in the short run and lead to an economic collapse that could be far worst than the 1984-86 Depression of the Marcos era.

When a situation comes that the virtual economy dominates over the physical economy (agriculture, industry, S & T, transport) and subordinates the latter, a bubble is created. A bubble economy is one that grows on the basis of speculations in stocks and predatory operations of financial derivatives (secondary debt papers traded in the global market), and is bound to collapse when a burst comes since it isn’t based on tangible goods.

Surely enough, when the bubble burst in Thailand in June 1996, the ‘butterfly effect’ of a mini-flapping of wings created a storm across a vast region. We then dubbed that crisis as the ‘Asian financial meltdown’. The economies and financial institutions that had the greatest exposure to portfolio finance suffered the most.

The worst was yet to come though, as the USA had to wait for 2007 before it would experience its own crash, a catastrophic crash that spread to Europe and Japan (twas barely out of a decade-long recession). The same bubble economy and its predictable burst led to the crash, a recession that hasn’t fully retreated yet. Europe is still in flames today (watch the financial flames in Greece, Spain, Finland), while Japan remains as flat as it was during its 10-year crisis (1994-2004).

The fact of the matter is that, in a virtual economy, the predatory financiers (bankers included) gain the most, while the people pay the price for the collapse. And the payment comes in the form of ‘stimulus package’ that are derived from tax revenues. So the equation is that financiers run away with the massive loot, and the people pay for the cost of the looting crime. The culprits then run away largely unpunished, while the people face the punitive flames of massive business closures, retrenchment, unemployment, and bad debts.

In my book Fair Trade & Food Security (Kaisampalad publication, 2005/07), I emphatically stressed that we have to reverse the free market and free trade policies to be able to regain economic wellness. Reversal means we have to go back to the principles of regulated economy (production, trade, distribution, consumption), and replace free trade with fair trade in our international trade.

Strong regulatory frameworks, coupled with strong institutions and good governance, will redound to bringing back the physical economy into place. With the economy based on the physical or real economy, this country and any country for that matter will weather any economic storm both local and global. There is ample funds to pay national debts, balance the budget, fund social programs, create jobs, and increase wages.

Among all presidential candidates, only that of Senator Manny Villar so far resonates the strongest in terms of echoing the physical economy. This resonance could be explained by the fact that the noblesse legislator immersed himself in housing & infrastructures for the longest time of his life as an entrepreneur, and only fractionally engaged in speculative engagements. Besides, he was witness to the maelstrom on the realty sector caused by the bubble burst of ’97, a burst that wasn’t of his own making as it was the maneuverings of George Soros & pals via currency attacks (monetary markets) that led to the meltdown.

I hope you would agree with me that the slogan for this year’s polls would be: “It’s the physical economy, stupid!”

[Philippines, 19 March 2010]

ERAP CANDIDACY: CHINESE MAFIA RETURNS WITH VENGEANCE

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

The world may be aghast at the latest eventuality where a jailed ex-president of the Philippines, Joseph Ejercito or Erap, was allowed to run again as president of the country. Overthrown in 2001 after massive plunder of the public coffers led to a near system collapse, and having served couples of years in jail for his sordid crime, Erap is back again in the campaign trails, wooing the rural and urban underclasses that serve as his voters’ base.

To recall, the public knew and highlighted the rather obvious plunder of the coffers by the Erap regime then. What was less visible, with evidence more of circumstantial (to use legalese parlance), was the ballooning role of the Chinese mafia, or Triad, in East Asia as a result of the victory in the Philippines of a coterie of organized crime operators led by no less than the President Erap.

East Asia has been largely a backyard for drug traders for nigh centuries, even as such operations were largely in the hands of the (a) British drug traders and (b) Triad operators. The said traders operated on a modus vivendi modality, and maintained a ‘balance of drug trade’ as partners in crime. Any imbalance in the trade—caused by the over-bearing domination of the same by the Triad—would be highly prejudicial to the British traders from whose hands depend the operations of British & Dutch financiers and the wellness Western economy for that matter.

Simply put, any imbalance in the trade in favor of the Triad & Asian organized crime partners would greatly impair the flexibility of maneuverings by the Western financiers who, as we all know, comprise a cartel that had yoked the global and national economies in their predatory pursuits. Financier operations are dependent to a large degree on underworld operations of gold trade that is tied up to the drug trade—the linkage being that drug traders often than not trade in gold more than in paper bills (dollars, pounds, euros).

What peoples of the world knew so little about was that the Erap regime was galvanizing the Philippines into a mafia state where government was merely a paper institution. Power was about to be brokered or exercised entirely by Triad & Partners godfathers, and should the same regime been allowed to stretch a couple of more years to govern, the domino effect could have seen Triad puppet states rising in Asia and elsewhere.

To say that the Erap overthrow was merely one of historical accident—accomplished by Filipinos via people power—is to overstress mass ignoramus by a dumb Herd of folks. Erap’s overthrow was determinatively and deliberately plotted by the Western financiers or global oligarchs (they’re the same by the way), whose Filipino puppet operator was Fidel Ramos and certain local technocratic-oligarchic circles embedded in the Makati Business Club.

Thus, the Erap overthrow returned the ‘balance of drug trade’ in the ‘ecology of organized crime’, so to speak. … That is, until the 10th of May 2010, when the next presidential poll comes.

As of this writing, the poll ratings of Erap have again been moving up. Whether this upsurge can be factored to Erap’s popularity alone is highly contentious. My intuition tells me that behind the scene, mafia operators are silently working to bring fresh cash and patronage gifts to the underclasses—funds that don’t pass at all in the hands of the Erap campaign organizers—by way of gargantuan drug sales, large parts of which are funneled to covert grassroots operators.

Is it really coincidental that tons of cocaine were dropped off in haste from sea vessels, with large amounts landing in the hands of fisherfolk? Wouldn’t it be more appropriate to recognize that vessels were in the act of transacting with local mafia operators—aimed at flash and lightning-speed transactions to gain funds for the traders and surplus for the underclasses as well?

With the return to the electoral arena of Erap the mafia godfathers’ favorite subaltern, Triads & Allied mobs have to quickly put into place a contingency plan that may facilitate their installation of puppet regimes in the region. Such regimes’ presence would instantly magnify the incomes of the criminal operators, and will enable them to buy more state officials and business groups across Asia, with the end-goal of completely erasing the divide between legitimate business and criminal operations.

Such an erasure of the distinction between legitimate business and mafia operations was excellently institutionalized in Russia, where the oligarchs are likewise mafia operators themselves. This happened during the country’s rush to privatize state firms, under the aegis of the British financiers’ puppet president Yeltsin. Already deeply ensconced in Russian life, the 9,000 mafia groups were the only ones who possessed the money to buy state firms.

At one juncture in the early 90s, 80% of Russia’s enterprises was in the hands of organized crime, and was alarming to say the least. It was just a matter of time before the ballistic missiles and modern armaments of Russia would land in the hands of the oligarchic mafia lords, and the situation proved far tougher to deal with than the previous situation of brining down the Stalinist state.

It has to take some Draconian measures from the dreaded KGB (renamed as FSB) to checkmate the powers of the criminal godfathers in Russia. And the power struggle between the mafia and KGB continues up until these days, with the KGB taking the upper hand when its agent Putin ruled the country and began jailing oligarchs as cautionary reminder to criminal godfathers that the Russian patriots will not be sitting ducks to the predatory plunder of the nation’s wealth and arms by demonic malefactor gangs.

Will such a situation galvanize in the Philippines too? How many votes can be mustered by Erap in the next polls remain to be counted and seen. What this analyst sees clearly is that every vote of Erap is a vote for the mafia godfathers and the consequent erasure of the business-criminal syndication divide. Conversely, every vote against Erap means a vote of repudiation against that demonic future of mafia-state unity.

[Philippines, 19 March 2010]

ASEAN INTEGRATION AND THE SUCCEEDING PRESIDENCY

Prof. Erle Frayne D. Argonza
Consultant-Development Center for Asia Africa Pacific

[13 December 2009]

BACKGROUND
Foreign policy should not be left unaddressed by any aspiring presidential candidate. The absence of foreign policy in the platform of a candidate could prove disastrous, as it indicates the parochial mind of an aspirant who is over-focused on domestic policy and governance.

Chief issue that could very well occupy the debates would be the ASEAN integration (circa 2015). The concordance of treaties on climate change and economic policies (whether to stress on fiscal stimulus or strengthening regulations) are now ongoing, at a time when Europe had consolidated through the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty. The EU-type regional integration will be a stronger agenda for emerging markets in the short-run and will lead to modifications of each one’s foreign policy architecture.

PAST FOREIGN POLICY FOCUS
Prior to 1986 (ascendancy of the revived democracy), there was largely a dis-focus in the foreign policy field. This was an area of policy drift, so to speak, as the country had no independent foreign policy to speak of. Our foreign policy agenda then were dictated by the USA (concerning alliances and enemies) and the World Bank-IMF group (concerning development and economics).

Breaking out of the foreign policy chain was the greatest challenge from 1986 onwards. The Aquino regime promised to pay all of our debt obligations, thus ensuring our encumbrances with the global financial cartels. On the other hand, the Senate abrogated the US-RP Military Bases Agreement in 1991, a noble act that served as impetus for configuring a new foreign policy architecture.

The Ramos and Erap regimes continued the same subservience to the IMF-World Bank group (representing global financiers) and U.S.-centered alliances, even as the Senate signed the Visiting Forces Agreement or VFA within that two-regime period (1992-2001). The VFA was a setback to efforts by foreign policy quarters (diplomatic corps) to help us all procure a condition of independence in foreign policy, even as US troops continue to make presence in key areas of the archipelago.

The Afghan and Iraq wars was a watershed to our international alliances and efforts at achieving independence in this regard. Though committed to sending troops at the inception of the wars, the GMA regime later withdrew troops in both countries. Not only that, the same regime also re-carved the focus of foreign policy from one of gaining alliances and cooperation with other states, to one of advancing the welfare of overseas Filipinos. Our graduation from the IMF programs was also witnessed during this regime, which brought us nearer to independence in terms of international economics and development.

CHALLENGES TO THE NEXT PRESIDENCY
The efforts aimed at achieving independent foreign policy, as re-assertion of our national sovereignty, should be ensued by the succeeding presidency. The shift from external relations to overseeing the welfare of overseas Filipinos is a clear victory of the sector concerned (overseas Pinoys) and should be respected. A renewed assessment of our standing via the IMF (which imposed the disastrous austerity programs in the past) should be done, to ensure that we have indeed exited from its programs and impositions (via its ‘letters of intent’). The clamor to abrogate the VFA should be ensued while the momentum is there.

It is argued that the area where the next presidency can make a dent—foreign policy-wise—is the concurrence of a new treaty leading to the economic integration of the ASEAN at the least, and commitments to an eventual political integration at the maximum. The Philippines must re-assert its leadership in the region, a leadership that eroded due to the perceived rampant graft of government. Hopefully, a new presidency will revive our standing in the international community, and bring back our image as the leading nation in the region.

Among other things, the presidency should ensure the installation of regional institutions, to note: (a) regional executive body (with rotating chairmanship), and (b) regional central bank. The tacit concurrence of Asian countries to launch an Asian currency and an Asian Monetary Fund should also be concretized, with the ASEAN serving as the hub for finalizing the setting up of such institutions. The political parties in the region should also be encouraged to form coalitions and alliances, in preparation for a future ASEAN parliament. There also is the travel & tour agreement of non-visa passports for cross-border travels by citizens and legitimate stakeholders of the region.

Towards the tail end of the presidency, the launching of an ASEAN-wide taxation system, such as the VAT and Tobin Tax (for cross-border financial transactions), should be undertaken. Needless to say, the presidency should lead in galvanizing trade agreements and implementing them region-wide, along a win/win situation for the diverse stakeholders.

The presidency should not forget the forging of a regional identity, which should be buttressed by a massive campaign to develop regional loyalty by the citizens of the region. Along the way, people-to-people interactions, exchanges and cooperation should be encouraged.

NOYNOY: CROCODILES’ SMOKESCREEN

Prof. Erle Frayne D. Argonza

[07 January 2010]

Noynoy Aquino, presidential candidate of the Liberal Party, has been projecting an image of an anti-graft crusader for some couples of years now. To recall, he was cajoled by his Mama, the late president Corazon Aquino, to join the anti-GMA movement precisely on the issue of good governance.

After his Mama’s death, public sentiment blew the winds of electoral fortune for Noynoy to take on the Aquino’s unblemished mantle and run as president of the republic. Seeing this groundswell of public sympathy arising from his Mama’s departure, vested interests of every shade found a window of opportunity to reap future rewards as largesse of a would-be victorious campaign of Cory Aquino’s son.

Indeed, as shown by preliminary information that reached my ears late last year, Noynoy is surrounded by diverse vested interest groups that (a) couldn’t see each other eye-to-eye and (b) are in active search for a smokescreen for their largesse pursuits. Some of the leading elements were former Ramos- and Erap-era bureaucrats, while others served GMA during her early heydays. Some others represent ideological blocs that are known for their classic opportunism, obstructionism, factionalism, and ‘termite behavior’.

Anyone who is interested to do serious empirical studies on graft and rent-seeking is advised to start with the Noynoy camp. There are couples of circles surrounding Noynoy, all of which the bachelor has no control over.

• Friends and kins comprise a ring of influence-peddlers. This ‘circle’ alone comprises a diversity of “we-bulong” factions that somehow show a semblance of goodwill though on a superficial level. A Noynoy presidency would serve as bread-winning opportunity for the crocodiles within them, in case Noynoy wins.

• Experts comprise another ring of potential state carpetbaggers. While the first ring shows semblance of mutual goodwill, the experts’ ring hardly shows such goodwill at all. During the crafting of Noynoy’s platform, the factions couldn’t even see each other eye-to-eye to iron out the agenda. No wonder that the final platform turned out as a hodge-podge of mother statements that was haphazardly finished to meet the deadline of the Comelec for registration. All of these factions are crocodile nests.

• Civil society groups comprise yet another ring. The Black & White Movement, largely a social democratic-controlled coalition, seems to have the strongest “bulong power” which renders the other social democratic or ‘soc-dem’ factions ‘outside the kulambo’. The unconsolidated state of these diverse groups make it so tough for volunteers to join the Noynoy camp, as they are pressed to identify first of all which faction could be most friendly to them. The top crocodile here is led by a former GMA cabinet member whose coalition received funds from treasuries when her sibling was finance secretary.

• The Liberal Party comprises the final inner ring. Final, because this serves as Noynoy’s homebase group being a party-mate. Fr. Intengan’s ‘soc-dem’ cadres are well entrenched in the directorate and think-tank of the party (even as another Intengan ‘soc-dem’, Norbie Gonzales, is in the GMA camp). The same ‘soc-dems’ possess a lifeline in Europe—the Eurosocialists and Jesuits—who can use them for Europe’s own Bonapartist agenda. Meanwhile, other kibitzer liberals, who are simply eager to waft in the energy of the Noynoy upsurge to gain respective electoral mileage, are just that: kibitzers whose fragmentary opinions wouldn’t weigh as much as the Intengan Euro-bonding puppets and the stalwart oldies.

I was almost lured into the Noynoy trap right after the burial of the Tita Cory. But after receiving information about the inner rings and realizing the power of the Primal-Corruptitious among the crocodile leaders, I decided against this pro-Noynoy option.

Maybe Noynoy should present clear credentials of a true-and-honest saintliness that may make his words worth the salt of the earth. He is hardly any perfected human who merits my attention, which makes it all clear that the country needs a leader—a true leader who’s most experienced, prepared, and has made enormous sacrifices as prelude to his preparation for a feat with Destiny—other than Noynoy.

GLOBAL ELITES FOR NOYNOY AQUINO

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

[21 January 2010]

This analyst has been a keen observer of the behavior of the global elites (‘military-industrial complex’ was coined for them in the 1950s) and their maneuverings in the Philippines and Southeast Asia. In a borderless global economic order, all the more have the global elites been flexing their muscles, with the aim of destroying nation-states in order to advance their pecuniary pursuits.

Come to think of it, this country never really was able to fully exercise sovereignty so as to effectively dis-engage itself from the global elites. As signatory to the Breton woods agreement that created the World Bank-IMF Group, this country had created enormous constrictions on its own growth and prosperity drives as greedy global oligarchs control its strategic business interests and loot its finances via liberalized currency and financial trading that the IMF-World Bank enforced.

The same oligarchic cabals (note the plural), through the Tri-Lateral Commission, were the ones who orchestrated the overthrow of the autocrat F. Marcos for stubbornly refusing to submit to their dictates. There was that juncture when Marcos released enormous amounts of gold in the global market, which effectively crashed the price of gold and angered the British-Dutch financial cartels.

The lynchpin personages in the country—political and business leaders—who serve as agents of the global oligarchs, are now aging, their influence plummeting in both public and private spheres. You can see the ‘who-is-who’ among these key crocodile players during the forum of the Makati Business Club, including that old hag of a technocrat who was World Bank’s chief operator in liberalizing the key sectors of the economy to equalize the playing field for foreign oligarchs such as those connected with George Soros (see Quantum fund investors).

My observation of unfolding political events shows that the global oligarchy is consolidating its support in just a single political team: the Noynoy Aquino-Mar Roxas Team. Noynoy recently spoke like a local George Bush who promised a friendly tax policy environment for Big Business, thus echoing the Jurassic Reaganomics policies of liberalization, privatization, deregulation, tax reforms, less subsidies for social services, and wage freeze.

Noynoy and the Liberal Party serve the interests of the global elites, they being the civil libertarian face to oligarchism. We wonder how the liberal agenda would cohere with their ‘bayan muna bago lahat’ cliché, since the same agenda serves oligarchic interest by creating an open door political context which will serve as the sweetener for uncontrolled greed by global looters and plunderers. Liberalism serves egotistical, self-aggrandizing pockets and not the nation & people.

It is pure and empty sophism, this liberal agenda so-called, the same sophism that served the interests in antiquity of the elites of Athens. The same Athenian oligarchy then waged ceaseless wars, with political sophists serving as public blinders for their true agenda: loot and ravage polities everywhere where their dirty hands can dip unto. Those wars—Pelopponesian Wars—led to the catastrophic decay of Greece and the destruction of its classical culture.

The agenda of the global oligarchy is to keep RP and diverse client-states into ‘weak states’ and ‘failed states’, so that eventually they can break up our nation and others into mini-states. Each mini-state will become private property of certain gigantic corporate groups, with their own corporate armies coming to their defense. The same oligarchs have already succeeded in fragmenting former Yugoslavia, and there’s no reason why they won’t proceed to bring such demonic successes to new levels such as to balkanize the Philippines.

Nationalism, not liberalism, is the ideology that can serve to galvanize us into a strong nation with strong institutions, and empower us to effectively neutralize the destructive agenda of the global oligarchy. We Filipinos need to stand together firmly against those forces that have been striving to destroy us from within and with-out, our bonds thus cemented by genuine nationalism patriotism.

VILLAR: EMBODIMENT OF ‘PHILIPPINE DREAM’

Prof. Erle Frayne D. Argonza

[08 January 2010]

The social forecaster J. Naisbitt, among the sharpest observers of cultural innovations worldwide, declared in his book Megatrends Asia that the ‘Asian dream’ is the global dream of the moment.
Realizing this gigantic power shift, Naisbitt challenged the youth of the West to “go East!”

If we were to localize the global trend of ‘Asian Dream’, we can find this in the capsule term ‘Philippine Dream’. This is the dream of any struggling child to live a future of abundance, a dream that was once championed in America (‘American dream’) but which has been lost along the way, a dream that has found root finally in our own motherland.

My contention is that, if the Philippine state would refurbish its nauseating image as a ‘weak state’, it would find a fresh start in electing a president who is an embodiment of the ‘Philippine dream’. Luck of all luck, the Nacionalista Party’s own top leader, Manny Villar, fits squarely into this ‘Philippine Dream’ mold.

The Manny Villar narrative is practically saying to our compatriots that nobody has to leave the country for overseas job in order to live abundance in everyday life. Stake it out in the country, live to learn well, be daring to be innovative and pioneering, and one will rise like a phoenix from the ashes of poverty.

Do not wait for opportunities to drop from the sky like ripe guavas descending on the mouth of a proverbial Juan Tamad. Build the opportunities, and be daring to re-engineer yourself in the process to keep on bringing you up to the next level of success.

Such is the sterling truth exemplified by the Villar narrative, which is indeed splendidly impressive and worth a plethora of accolades. Only Villar fits this mold among the couples of presidential candidates, most of whom are the typical coño kids who treat the poor folks as utilitarian objects for vote-gathering purposes. Not only did Villar soil his hands in creating opportunities for housing and urban development, he was also among those noblesse legislators who built enabling measures to widen the latitudes of social equity and economic prosperity. And yet no coño kid is he amid his abundant life!

I remember the coño kids on campus as highly scorned spoiled brats who are in the university largely to display wealth and who condescendingly regard their schoolmates as lizards and rats. A few of them did I make friends with, those who can be remolded to a life of social relevance, even as I was among those self-supporting students (I was a full scholar) and grew as a militant activist. Well immersed among fellow intellectuals, I only had but expletives reserved for the coños.

Today I am among those who ask: what right has a coño to be president of the republic? A person who grew up in a mansion and couldn’t soil his hands in work deserves to be a leader of colonial era government, and such an era is long gone!

I would ask the same for a vice-president: what right has a coño to be vice-president of the country? Isn’t Loren Legarda, who now teams up with Manny Villar, the most fit for the job since she embodies the ‘Philippine dream’ and all the sterling qualities of a talented and competent Pinoy who has risen from the hovels and lead a prosperous life?

An emerging market such as the Philippines has most to gain from electing highly competent top officials who embody the ‘Philippine dream’ and/or ‘Asian dream’. Conversely, it would be disastrous to elect Inquisitionist coño kids who in fact are mere smokescreens for crocodiles.

I am a firm believer in the ‘Philippine dream’ or ‘Asian dream’, and I go for a Villar-Legarda team for 2010.

VILLAR VICTORY: KEY FORECASTS

VILLAR VICTORY: KEY FORECASTS

By: Prof. Erle Frayne D. Argonza
Development Center for Asia Africa Pacific
[11 December 2009]

BACKGROUND

This political economist and social forecaster foresees an eventual presidential victory for Manny Villar in the 2010 national polls. The forecast is based on the observations concerning the weaknesses of the other candidates. Most observable weaknesses of the Noynoy Team, as per information from within, buttress this forecast most of all. The popularity of Noynoy Aquino is merely transitory, even as voters will eventually choose Villar whose strengths are his very cutting edge for victory.

SITUATION ANALYSIS

Prior to the filing of COCs by the presidential candidates, the four (4) strongest contenders to the presidency were (in alphabetical order): Aquino, Escudero, Estrada, and Villar. To be considered a strong contender, a candidate must first exceed the minimum statistic of 8.5% (level of significance). A double-digit means the candidate’s public standing is very significant (notably 20% and above).

Public perceptions do change, and change so rapidly depending on prevailing circumstances. Before the filing of COCs yet, Sen. Escudero already pronounced his retreat from the presidential contest, thus rendering his supporters at a lost as to whom they should cast their lot on. Meanwhile, one can also see the decline of Aquino’s rating from a top of 60% to a recent 47%, evidence of short-term perceptual change.

The current situation points to the high level of indecision on the part of voters. Based on impressionistic information from the ground, voters who previously went for Aquino have already shifted to Villar. It is most likely that those who chose Escudero will go for Villar, assuming that the proper social marketing strategies and public projection are in place and operational on sustained basis.

It will take till the end of April yet for 90% of voters to firm up their choices, and another month later for the rest of the 10% of undecided to firm up theirs. By projecting the weaknesses of the Noynoy Team onwards throughout the campaign, it is possible that the tide will turn back for Villar even before the end of April, thus ensuring Villar’s victory.

DEBACLE IN THE AQUINO TEAM

A fractious team comprising of fragments of hardly unconsolidated factions is what characterizes the 1st layer of persons and groups surrounding Noynoy. Practically caught flat-footed by the upsurge of popular clamor for his presidency, Noynoy was so unprepared for the challenge, and ditto was his party. As of late November, Noynoy’s platform couldn’t be ironed out yet, precisely because the factions of experts and partisans who were tasked to produce each aspect of the agenda couldn’t see each other eye to eye.

Fractious and fragmentary indeed are these groups, that Noynoy is hardly in a position to get them to act together. A man unprepared for the presidential mission is likewise bereft of that credibility to call the shots within his backyard during a presidential derby. Unable to call the shots well, Noynoy is likened to Erap Estrada who was also regarded as a mere pawn by entrenched interest groups.

Finally, Noynoy’s platform was released in early December. But so glaring is the hodge-podge nature of the platform. The statements are mere motherhood statements comprising of lines that were already said time and again, providing no innovative thought about the huge challenges of solving poverty, attaining full employment, achieving fiscal balance, and getting the country closer to a 1st world economy by mid-2016 (or attain ‘development maturity’).

Till these days, volunteers are having a tough time getting through the Noynoy campaign lines. To be able to get inside, a volunteer has to study first the diverse groups comprising the pro-Noynoy forces, identify which group could be most friendly to the volunteer, and then finally decide to join. This tedious and circuitous process will drag down the Noynoy campaign altogether, and will prove disastrous during the middle of the campaign period. Lacking a solid machinery, the campaign will flounder, causing much chagrin on insiders. A chaotic campaign it will be, which will prove catastrophic in terms of securing voters’ fidelity and finality of choice.

Furthermore, the platform of Noynoy is so focused on domestic policy, with nary a statement about foreign policy. This expert is of the opinion that the ASEAN integration, which will happen during the next presidency’s incumbency, is a gigantic event for the nation and its neighbors, so that we can ill afford to be lackadaisical about it as a central feature of our foreign policy. The ASEAN integration is one that should be led by the Philippines no less, being the most credible country member due to its esteem as the 1st independent nation-state in Asia, and should, to repeat, be the central feature of the next presidency’s foreign policy agenda.

Aside from the above, there is the lack of experience of Noynoy in diverse facets of governance and relatively weak leadership in the public policy field. His charisma is largely an attribution of transference of his deceased parents’ charisma, which could hardly suffice to rally constituencies and his own supporters to support radical measures in the future.

STREAMING VILLAR’S VICTORY

Noticing such weaknesses quickly, and projecting them in the sharpest possible manner, will enable the Villar Team to recoup the temporarily lost grounds in public perception. Villar is clearly on top of his machinery, is most prepared in terms of a coherent platform, is most experienced both governance and policy-wise, possesses a charisma that flows from within rather than ‘inherited’ from departed parents, is the greater visionary and patriot than any of the other candidates. These strengths of Villar should be projected in crescendo fashion across the campaign period, thus ensuring victory at the end.

The mix of tactics and methods must be configured soon enough, with Villar himself at the helm of all the planning, generation of cognitive maps, and determination of the compass of the campaigns. It should be stressed that the campaign lines and substance must be high-level at all times, and only minimally ‘below the belt’. Villar, Legarda and the senatorial candidates should focus on high-level, principled campaign, leaving the ‘below-the-belt punches’ to other supporting personalities and groups within the Villar machinery.

Across the campaign period, diligence must be done in sustaining the building of the machinery (both the party and the multisectoral coalition) and the propaganda efforts. The Team should veer away from the clash between the Erap Team and the Gilberto/Lakas Team, which should go ahead and be allowed to devastate each other till they self-destruct. Along the way, the endorsement by cultural-political blocs with large command votes should be sought, notably the mainstream Left and INK. The endorsement by Sen. Escudero will count a lot for sure, which will provide light to his supporters about whom they should vote for.

Lastly, it should also be noted that the old conflicts among the Cojuancos are re-surfacing, the new morph being the Noynoy-Gibo divide. Noynoy will most likely be slam-banged by the Teodoro camp relentless, even as it has to parry the hard blows from the Erap camp. The Villar Team should maneuver to stay clear of these hardball confrontations, and focus on projecting positive, principled campaign lines and substantive debate lines along the way.

To conclude, realistically the contenders for the presidency will tail behind in the exit polls as their machineries and campaigns efforts puff up, flounder and lose steam. This will pave the way for heightened trust and confidence of voters on the Villar leadership whose presidency they will galvanize in the poll precints later.