EMERGING MARKETS OVERTAKE RICH NATIONS BY 2025 SAYS WB

EMERGING MARKETS OVERTAKE RICH NATIONS BY 2025 SAYS WB

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good news has played harmonious cords for the world’s emerging markets recently, as the World Bank released its most honest forecast that they will equalize wealth production with the richest nations by 2025. This wonderful forecast alone is very good news that is cause for celebration this early, as it means the era of hegemonism by the weathiest nations is coming to an end.

Richest nations often than not refer to the members of the OECD which has the G7 nations at the top. OECD economies, during their heydays, produced 60% of the world’s wealth, so you could just imagine their clout. They bullied developing economies no end, and they used the thuggish IMF as the institution to slam bang the poorer nations into submitting to their dictates of authority measures.

That era of OECD hooliganism is now drawing to a close, as the emerging markets make waves as growth drivers of the global economy. Emerging markets are those countries with (a) big populations, (b) growing consistently at a range of 5%-10% per annum, and (c) have a very significant numbers of families earning middle income range of U.S. $6,000-30,000 per annum.

Philippines, my beloved nation, has a population of past 94 Millions as of end of 2011, has been growing at an average of 5% for a decade now, and has 15% of its population at middle incomes (using the global middle-class yardstick). It is clearly among the emerging markets, and is a trend setter in the ASEAN together with the other emerging markets Indonesia and Vietnam.

Other trend-setting emerging markets across the globe are: China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Mexico, Egypt, and Pakistan. Let’s cross our fingers that the likes of Bangla Desh and Nigeria will mutate into emerging markets very soon.

Taiwan, Singapore, and Hongkong do not qualify as ‘emerging’, as they are classified as ‘dragon economies’, besides they are already wealthy. Malaysia and Thailand have relatively small populations, so they don’t qualify as ‘emerging markets’ but are classified among the ‘tiger economies’.

The ASEAN is surely a fortunate region as it has Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam among its emerging economies, aside from wealthy Singapore, the ‘tigers’ Malaysia and Thailand, and small but wealthy Brunei. It is now recognized as a regional powerhouse, and will be a global economic power before this decade’s end.

Producing aggregate income of $1.8 Trillions as of end of 2010, which will double in 2016, ASEAN is surely bound to be a pillar of the global economy. China already reached that status, and India is on its way there too. Japan was the only economic global pillar in Asia by the 20th century, but that situation had radically altered as China surpassed it recently.

For the emerging economies of the world, bon voyage to your journeys to global acclaim and wealth!

[Philippines, 18 May 2011]
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WESTERN BOMBING ADDICTION OBFUSCATES LIBYAN PRO-DEMOCRACY

WESTERN BOMBING ADDICTION OBFUSCATES LIBYAN PRO-DEMOCRACY

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Civil war rages on in Libya as of this writing. Western powers’ bombing sorties did change the compass of the conflict, as they destroyed armored arsenals and aircraft of government forces, thus weakening Kadhafy’s position. However, the bombing addiction is turning more spurious, even as it obfuscates the legitimacy of the pro-democracy forces.

In previous articles, I already sounded off my resonance with the youthful generations of the Arab world in their just and legitimate campaigns to overthrow republican tyrannies and antiquated kingdoms & sheikhdoms. In the case of Libya, I was amenable to seeing a coalition of forces from Africa (e.g. African Union) and the Arab League help out to flash Kadhafy off his turf.

To recap, Kadhafy responded with sadistic carnage to the peaceful pro-democracy protesters, and that genocide is simply inhumane, demonic and unacceptable by any yardstick of civility. And so he must be ousted by a synergy of external and internal forces, till the opposition will be given the opportunity to construct a new government.

I was surprised by the rapidity with which the Western powers responded and took the cudgels of external intervention, which I did observe with detached coldness for a while. But now, seeing that the ugly ogre of power hegemonism has reared itself, I can see that the bombing obsession could turn the conflict to directions other than what the pro-democracy forces themselves opted to sojourn at the commencement of the campaign.

Obama just seems too over-focused on his own obsession, the same obsession he is now projecting on the leaderships of the USA, France and UK. Just exactly where that obsession will lead to, must be forecast and anticipated with opacity. Obama might revive the already dying Pax Americana which most countries vehemently oppose, revived precisely by the entry of American ground troops to Libya.

Cameron is puppet of the British financiers who have enormous stake in Libya’s oil, so we can expect more of UK intervention in the war. It isn’t remote that the British oligarchs will call the shots by secretly moving to bankroll the war while America provides the ground troops for the oligarchs’ pursuits. It’s Iraq and Afghanistan all over again, and that spells real danger.

Remember, the Anglo-European oligarchy had planned all along to orchestrate the waging of a 3rd World War, by pitting a Sunni-Zion alliance versus an Iranian-led Shiite coalition. The Arab conflicts got their abominable plan almost off-track, so they are recasting their tools and orchestrating opportunities in the Arab conflicts in their favor, so that their apocalyptic agenda will hold through.

As far as American politicians are concerned, Libya has no strategic significance to America’s interests, so they are befuddled by Obama’s obsession with bombing Libya and his subterfuge agenda to land ground troops there. Obama’s divergence from mainstream hegemonistic compass in America would reveal him as a closet Confederate who works unabashedly to align America’s hot wars to the abominations of the Anglo-European oligarchs.

African countries should better act quickly so as to secure the initiatives in orchestrating the external intervention in Libya. Acting out too late, the bombing addicts of the West would transform the conflict into a grotesque holocaust of sorts that could ignite a gigantic conflagration.

[Philippines, 31 March 2011]

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Come Visit E. Argonza’s blogs & website anytime!

Social Blogs:
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MADNESS IN WISCONSIN: HARDLINERS JUNK LABOR RIGHTS

MADNESS IN WISCONSIN: HARDLINERS JUNK LABOR RIGHTS

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Madness masquerades as rational-legal in today’s postmodern context. The fiasco over the collective bargaining issue in Wisconsin, a state in the USA, is strong evidence of the erasure of the boundary between madness and rationality.

Industrial relations modalities of the moment have already graduated to a higher ground since the early days of management science. During those ancient days—of the likes of Taylor, Fayol, Weber—it was still customary to debate over how management should treat labor. Times have changed since then.

Collective bargaining as a sacrosanct ‘best practice’ has attained granite-rock acceptance as a social technology. It is the bedrock of industrial relations or IR. Needless to say, it had ceased to be an issue whether to accept that collective bargaining has full import in inducing productivity, efficacy, and efficiency in the work sphere.

As a social technology expert and analyst, it surely comes as a shock to me that collective bargaining has been put on the drawing board of decisional chips in a state of the USA, and debated whether it should even exist in that state at all. As far as the Philippines is concerned, where industrial peace has prevailed for two (2) decades now, collective bargaining is a sacrosanct tool, even as it is underpinned by human development paradigm championed by global institutions such as the ILO.

Even when Martial Law prevailed in the Philippines—under dictator Marcos—trilateral talk between state, market (business), and trade unions (civil society) was already at the height of institutionalization. It was followed through by best practices of labor-management dialogue in the micro-setting that led eventually to the industrial peace we are now experiencing here.

The same best practices were highly lauded by the International Labor Organization or ILO, and were adopted as some of the core practices recommended by the same magnanimous body to its member countries. Those same practices were hatched in the University of the Philippines’ School of Labor Industrial Relations or SOLAIR, an institution that had championed the generation of social technologies for the work environment.

The move by Jurassic politicians in Wisconsin, who maneuvered to junk collective bargaining supposedly to prime the state’s coffers and enable the payment of $3 Billions of debts, betrays a lack of understanding of the human condition and IR best practices. That the work force of Wisconsin has to serve as sacrificial lamb to be able to pay debts shows the degenerative madness that has permeated the mental banks of the politicians there.

I can only state one word to describe the Wisconsin condition: appalling! The protesting professionals and workers there were right when they said that the world is watching the Wisconsin fiasco, and yes indeed we are watching. There is no way we can allow a domino effect of that political madness to other democracies, and I do hope my own fellow Filipinos in America will make a strong voice in protest over such a madness by conscienceless policians.

Such madness is indicative of the Fascism that had encroached in almost all known sectors of the United States, a mindset that almost justified a martial law by the former president Bush. To use democratic institutions (e.g. legislation) in order to stifle workers’ rights is plain fascistic behavior, and should be exposed and junked pronto before the fascistic precedent spreads to other countries.

The hardliner politicians in Wisconsin better go back to their kindergarten lessons and get some crash courses in industrial relations, if it isn’t too late a thing to do this corrective measure. They should also be reminded of the lessons of America’s history, whereby the Civil War erupted precisely because of polarization over how to treat human resources there: whether to enslave or to free the colored peoples of the south.

[Philippines, 11 March 2011]

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Come Visit E. Argonza’s blogs anytime!

Social Blogs:
IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com
UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com

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ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com
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U.S. GOVERNANCE FRAGMENTS, OBAMA’S RATIONALITY DWINDLES

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good day to all ye global citizens! Magandang araw sa mga kapamilyang global!

The Republicans have recently slam dunked the Democrats in the House electoral contest. This update event has put a closure to Democrat dominance in US governance, an event that will highlight brinkmanship of a dangerously destructive path.

News have been disseminated worldwide that Obama fired his highly trusted economic aides. With no team to recline on in the White House, Obama is compelled by the situation to rely more and more on the likes of Gates of the defense community, Clinton for foreign policy, and other powerful figures inside the cabinet and senate other than the economic aides.

The people whom he relies upon at this time represent distinct voices of diverse ideological persuasions. The defense Establishment is very strongly neo-conservative (read: fascist), the diplomatic community is Wilsonian liberal (center to Left), and the Senate Democrats are liberal obscurantists.

The nationalists, or those articulators of regulation and protection of American economic interests in domestic and foreign policies, have been marginalized all of a sudden. Perhaps their advocacies will be taken over by the more Rightwing Republicans in congress and the bureaucracy, Republicans whose protectionist mindsets translate to protectionism for Big Business and the oligarchy.

Obama’s feat has been to curb the ceaseless economic downspin via the stimulus program. However, unemployment and poverty incidence continue to rise, indicating the flaws in social policies. Health care and war commitments continue to generate rabid detraction.

The question we’re raising this time is: how far governable is the government of the United States? The potency of governance institutions is being weakened by the year, and the direction of that weakening is towards a fragmentation of governance altogether.

I do recall having endorsed Obama’s candidacy to Filipino-Americans and their compatriots there. The reason was that being unencumbered to oligarchic interests, Obama can make a change in policy directions both domestically and internationally. A re-institution of New Deal policies, hopefully, can be effected by his regime, an audacious act that can be emulated by the other countries.

I expected that the Obama regime will re-carve U.S. policy environment towards re-structuring the economy, reviving the physical economy, and quashing predatory finance. Alas! Signs are aplenty that the feats didn’t go that far as expected!

Now the Republicans are back in the legislature and local governments, and so observers better anticipate brinkmanship jettisoning to higher altitudes. The result would prove catastrophic to America altogether, as the exacerbation of lowly governable state surfaces.

A similar fragmentation is now happening among European states and Japan, a development that could prove to be frightening. The situation will also be enormously puzzling to political scientists and sociologists who are deeply mired in ‘re-inventing governance’ paradigm line, a paradigm that is replete with flaws and imprudent peddler of the illusion of ‘end of ideology’.  

Political scientists and sociologists hold a similar contention that America’s civil society had badly fragmented. Such a lamentable situation has eroded the ‘social capital’ of citizens and folks, thus disabling their capacity for leveraging the state and market for greater social goods and services.

With state institutions and governance further weakened and an economy that has deteriorated across the decades, a weak civic life for Americans means they have to anticipate the worst yet to come in their access to social, economic, and public goods.

Obama’s very own sanity or psychological health could be deteriorating now, a fact that will undermine his own capacity to grasp grassroots reality and facts-of-life. Such a deterioration of psychic ‘wealth’ is the least that Americans expect nor dream of, and bodes a dark age for the Saxon power up north.

[Philippines, 29 November 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

WESTERN MAN’S SOCIOPATHY IN CHINA-BASHING

Erle Frayne Argonza y Delago

Good day to my fellow global citizens!

The USA and European states have been raising the alarm bell recently of a China that has been manipulating its currency to undermine the economies of the former. That is the perception coming from the West, a perception that is dangerously warped, so let me share some reflective thoughts about the matter.

The Western Man, nay the White Man has been manifesting a shared abnormality of sorts: that of resorting to a ‘bogey man’ discourse in order to justify an invasion or destruction of another nation and its people. The malady lies at the very root of the collective psyche of the Western Man, and seems to be incurable.

‘Bogey man’ discourse means the Western Man has the penchant for looking for someone or some country to blame for its own defects. It is a case of collective projection of their defects on other peoples, whom they would then demonize without let up as part of a collective catharsis. The catharsis could then break up into a great war in the foreseeable future which will be conducted with sadistic passion that is no longer human but ‘demonic’.

Didn’t the West recently create Jihad terror groups that they used for some time in their campaign against their collective nemesis, the former Soviet Union? Then, eventually, the jihad movements became the very ‘bogey man’ targets of the Western Establishment to justify the destruction of nations and peoples, such as what they demonstrated versus Iraq and Afghanistan.

Not even contented with the anti-jihad rhetoric that the Western media had hyper-hyped, the Western Man has been into every Asia-bashing ‘bogey man’ discourse over the last five (5) years or so. The Japan-bashing discourse led to the humiliation of the Sony Corp owners and the inflammation of anti-West passions right inside Japan itself.

There also is the increasing resort to India-bashing rhetoric in the West, which has been coming at a time when Indians are being murdered by the hundreds every year in Australia (a Saxon nation). Indian investors and executives are the targets of media attacks and dis-information by the very same White oligarchic forces that have been salivating for a control of the ‘smart money’ coming from India.

At this juncture, the West with the USA as the lead force has been elevating to crescendo level the China-bashing discourse. Multiple issues are being highlighted by detractors, such as the Tibet issue, human rights issue, and the hyper-valuation of the yuan/renminbi.

As already shared by experts across the world, the economic malaise of the West is largely an internal malady.  Their very own economists, led by Joseph Stiglitz, have repeatedly pinpointed the structural defects of the economy, defects that are not being addressed properly as the Establishment has a different perception altogether (i.e. it is a cyclical problem).

In the late 90’s, I was among circles of political economist in the Philippines who foresaw the structural defects in Western/Northern economies. We forewarned the public of the coming failure of globalization and another depression that would hit both sides of the Atlantic.

Liberal economic reforms that began with the dropping of the gold standard yet (c ’72) and widened with the Reagan-Thatcher privatization initiatives, gave rise to the ‘virtual economy’ founded on predatory finance. The same predatory finance led to massive de-industrialization, agricultural decay, decline of S & T investments and new innovations, erosion of infrastructures, and neglect of transportation & communications. The latter sectors are the very foundations of the physical economy, the very ‘real economy’ that provides for jobs, social security, ‘safety caps’ for the masses, and long-term economic stability.

But predatory Western Establishment will have nothing to do with the facts, and will do everything to conceal the facts from the general public. The sociopathic elements, which sadly could afflict all of the key echelon people in the Establishment, are fascistically inclined to bamboozle and destroy every external polity and people that they can identify and project their defects unto.

So many peoples were already mass terminated and brutally killed on account of the same sociopathy of the Western Man. Just count how many hundreds of millions died due to the 1^st and 2^nd World Wars, add to the 37 millions that were killed due to America’s post-war military adventurisms.

The Western peoples should better forge a level of unity to solve problems by addressing the problems directly and reforming structural defects within their backyards. Nothing will be gained from flowing with their psychological defects that could lead to another round of mass terminations due to a global war that could explode soon.

[Philippines, 30 October 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

OBAMA’S AIDES DEPART, WHERE BLOWS PUBLIC POLICY?

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Magandang gabi! Good evening!

Obama’s aides—who have been with him all the way since electoral campaign days—are departing. We do hope to get to the bottom of the real reason behind the departures, such as those of his ideologue chief-of-staff, but it seems the answer will be confined to the White House as classified information.

What we ought to reflect on is, after the departures, where does the wind of public policy—domestic and international—blow for Obama’s government? Will the oversight/regulatory powers be reinforced somehow, to checkmate the intrusive manipulations of financiers in America’s economy? Will the Wilsonian inclination for democracy cum civil rights be sustained in foreign policy?

The North’s economists have already pronounced their evaluation of America’s and Europe’s economies, with pessimistic-to-gloomy forecasts of both continental economies over the next two (2) years. The stimulus package has clearly backfired, unemployment has ballooned to past 9% (may hit 10% by 2011), and poverty incidence has gone up to 15% (from the pre-crisis 12% level).

Meantime, Clinton is entrenched as foreign policy executor, and her presence bodes well for the Wilsonians who have always held sway in the state department. How much can Wilsonian clout remain till the rest of Obama’s term will be up for observation, more so that the midterm election is bound to erode the Democrats’ congressional seats.

To get straight to the point, with Republicans forecast to re-dominate both houses of legislature, both domestic and foreign policy directions are bound to alter. On the foreign policy front, the isolationism of traditional Republicans may come back, thus undermining the ‘engagement policy’ of the Obama regime in the short run.

How many Obama aides are bound to depart soon we can only surmise for now. But it seems that as a forecast fallout of Democrats increases by the day, so shall the Obama aides get to have some quantitative reductions too.

The quantitative reductions in aides could tip the balance inside the White House in favor of a certain policy initiative. So we observers have no choice but to stay glued to the changes right within Obama’s headquarters. We can only hope that a resurgence of the neo-conservatives, who hold sway in Pentagon & Defense, won’t be in the offing.

With the USA’s possible spiral down a 2^nd recessionary dip, a return of the hawkish neo-cons to power (they’d be dictating terms for Obama behind closed doors) would spell the doom to America’s prestige worldwide. A neo-cons return would coincide with Israel’s unilateral plan to strike down Iran in hot warfare, an act that could take Obama down the global esteem ratings if he will resonate with the hawks.

The electoral campaigns are now heating up as the polls near, so let us monitor the events very closely in the USA. Just exactly who those Republican additions are in both houses will galvanize very soon, bringing along with them the Jurassic solutions of Reaganomics cum Bush tax cuts, along with Federal Reserve antique tool of interest rate intervention.

[Philippines, 06 October 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AMERICA’S & EUROPE’S TOP TERRORISTS ARE INSIDE ESTABLISHMENT

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Magandang araw sa inyong lahat! Good day to you all!

The White House had recently delivered remarks concerning reports about the latest terrorists in the USA. The report from the top pinpointed supposedly independent small groups scattered across the continent and acting autonomously of each other, thus disseminating terror in far greater ways than before.

Across the Atlantic, Europe’s own leaders have already delivered the same line: that terrorists are independent groups scattered across the continent, sowing dread and damages at scales that are heretofore unprecedented.

We can observe in the bylines of the political-military elites a copycat version of each other. As Europe speaks of the line, so will America copycat it. If America says a line—about terrorism—Europe’s leaders will copycat it. Never mind all those semblances of independent-minded leaders across the Atlantic, that’s only a semblance as the leaders themselves have spin doctors behind them who come from the financier oligarchy of the West/North.

I wish I was born in the ‘cave man’s era’ to believe those sickening line about terrorists across the Atlantic. Having keenly observed global realities since my adolescent days yet (as a student of sociology and political economy), I know all too well that the terrorists who appeared in the political-military landscapes across the decades were criminal elements recruited and commanded by rouge elements within the Establishment.

The terrorists’ tactics may have varied across the decades, but one thing hasn’t varied at all: the financier oligarchs and their political-military subalterns were behind the recruitment, training, indoctrination, and deployment of the criminals-turned-ideologues whose missions shall come at their behest.

From the time of the radical Mazzini up through Russia’s Lenin & Trotsky, we have observed the same pattern: a circle of wealthy oligarchs utilizing operators for sleazy tasks to recruit assassins and malefactors who can be converted to ideologues. Lenin and Trotsky, as per research findings, were both funded by the Rothschildes and their elite circles, tasked with the mission to overthrow the Tsarist line for the refusal of the latter to succumb to the plan of creating a unified Europe under the Habsburg tutelage. Lenin & Trotsky then recruited malefactors of all kinds, notably from the rabble, and the rest was history.

Across the Atlantic, in the USA, the same phenomenon had flourished. White supremacist groups notably the Ku Klux Klan or KKK were directly manipulated by elite circles in the union, circles that added Nazi elites during the Great Depression era. Do you even want to believe that the KKK is dead at this time, supposedly as civil liberties have become granite rock solid since after the assassination of Martin Luther King?

Fast forward to the 9/11 event, and we have the same phenomenon being churned out to repack terrorists supposedly in a new cloth: Islamic jihadists. True, the jihadists came from outside the USA, but the spin doctors of the jihadists were well embedded within the Establishment. These are the true terrorists, those who have been calling the shots in defense and foreign policies particularly, whose faces remain behind masks till these days.

Move back to Europe, examine the likes of the Red terror cells, Carlos the Jackal, Irish Republican Army, and onwards to the jihadist cells, and you’d find the same pattern like some Xerox copies of the US precedents. In ecological language, we call that isomorphism in the politico-military niches.

Terrorists are important to the financier oligarchs for the following purpose: terror attacks in any part of the world create financial-monetary panic in that area, and induces heavy financial flows across borders. Since the financiers have portfolio exposures in that part of the globe, then expect that they will benefit the most from the ‘velocity of financial flows’ induced by the terror attacks.

With the stock markets of both the USA and Europe sputtering again recently, there needs to be a re-oiling of financial flows to take advantage of the situation. And that will be done precisely by unleashing terror groups in both continents to shore up their bourses and derivatives markets for that matter.

What has been alarming for me is that Obama himself seems to be inclined into believing the lie coming from his own spin doctors. Does Obama seriously know the consequences of his own pronouncements post-9/11 commemoration?

[Philippines, 02 October 2010]

 

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

ANOTHER STIMULUS PACKAGE BY OBAMA?

ANOTHER STIMULUS PACKAGE BY OBAMA?

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good evening from the paradise boondocks south of Manila!

The weather in this tropical area where I reside right today has been so fine for almost two (2) weeks now, and this is unusual for the month of September when four (4) storms pass over the country on the average. At any rate, this makes me a bit happy, enough to ruminate again about the global economy specifically the White House policy pronouncements.

I was among those analysts and development experts in my country who made a go for stimulus packages as core ‘pump priming’ strategy for staving off the ill effects of the global recession. To recall, I even went to the extent of saying my kudos for America’s own stimulus package that was pronounced late by then president Bush and then extended by the new president Obama.

Being all to familiar with pump priming, as I had been witness to how this tool was wielded every time we experienced the pains of spiraling crash right in my own country, I have been all too eager to see the tool be employed judiciously in the Northern countries (EU, USA-Canada, Japan) that have either remained flat growth-wise for successive years or crashed calamitously such as what the USA went through in 2002 and 2007.

The Obama administration had its chance of employing this tool, with no less than $800 Billion as war chest for its execution, and somehow the pump priming proved to have stopped the catastrophic collapse that went on after the implosion of the realty bubble in ‘07. As per my own textbook orientation in macro-economics, it takes two (2) years for a stimulus program to optimize the economy back from appalling sub-optimal performance accountable to a recessionary crash.

The two (2) years since the package was begun by Bush yet will end this month, as far as I can recall the beginnings of it. After the two (2) year gestation period is over, it is standard task for policy-makers and stakeholders to evaluate the overall performance of the measure. The evaluation will unveil what kinks remain that were largely un-addressed by the measure.

It is surprising on my part to learn of the latest pronouncements from the White House that the US president is again ready to launch a new stimulus package on top of the existing one, coming at a time when the first package has never been evaluated to the fullest. The next package includes tax cuts that are but a rehash of the Bush-era stimulus for big business.

I just hope that the pump priming won’t be misconstrued as rendering the stimulus tool into a permanent policy tool. Just by pronouncing that a new stimulus package is on the drawing board can already send jitters to business stakeholders as the pronouncement is a tacit acceptance of the failure to revive the economy as a whole, and that a new round of recession could be in the offing.

Maybe the White House has in mind not only the US economy but also that of its Atlantic partner Europe. Hasn’t the USA been handling fresh cash to Europe to mitigate the bursting of bubbles and gnawing crisis there? Did the White House or Federal Reserve even bother to submit a report to the US Congress about the subsidies to Europe, subsidies that should be hands-me-down to America’s laborers who continue to suffer from the ballooning unemployment in the homeland?

The White House pronouncement is also sending bad signals to Asia’s emerging markets that have already been growing appreciably over the past eight (8) months of the year. Asia’s own stock markets, financial and money markets are trembling over the Obama stimulus news, and there are now silent moves inside board rooms to map out contingency measures in case that the USA will go thru another round of recession in the aftermath of the failure of the first stimulus package to induce totally recovery.

If there is anything I can advise to the White House and Federal Reserve technocrats at this point, it is to desist from making such an untimely measure. Ensure that the most optimal results from the first stimulus package were achieved first of all, report the results to the US congress and the world community, and show clear patterns of transparency in the dealings regarding the pump priming.

If a stimulus package is utilized largely to fatten the purses of corporate executives and owners, who will then use the same to buy new yatch and spend most luxuriously for their board meetings, then the clear message is this: forget about stimulus package!!!

[Philippines, 14 September 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

EURO-AMERICAN BANKRUPT COMPANIES ARE LEPERS, ASIANS BE WARY!

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Leper Companies, Inc. could very well describe the so many huge corporate entities in the West that are now expectantly waiting for some investors to breath fresh life into them. The compass of that search points to Asia as the source of the badly needed ‘smart money’.

What a mess indeed had Western economies turned into, as their respective enterprises have been crashing to bankruptcy levels after liberal policies have become granite rock in them since the Thatcher-Reagan era. De-industrialization, massive loss of jobs, and measly investments in S&T have made elephants out of huge companies such as the once mighty Bethlehem Steel.

“Bankruptcy! Bankruptcy!” would be an apt line in a classic opera production in New York and London, save that even classic opera groups of the West might even go the bankruptcy route. From manufacturing to culture industry, inclusive of Hollywood stalwarts, Western companies are going down the drain one after the other.

Insatiably greedy financiers are of course waiting in the wings to dip their hands into those crashing industries, waiting for the moment to buy them at dirt cheap prices. They did that after the 2^nd world war, a war that the global oligarchy created, when they bought so many European factories at rummage sale. Their war chest had been reinforced by slash funds past $3 Trillions circa 2007 yet, so they’re ready for the ‘ukay-ukay’ transactions any time (‘ukay-ukay’ is Filipino term for re-sale of used clothes at cheap dirt prices).

The same financier oligarchs did the rummage buying spree on former Soviet bloc economies’ flattened factories groups, with mafia groups joining the fray for purchase of the rummage sales. At one instance in the early 90s, Russia’s mafia groups owned and controlled 80% of the rummage industries, thus prompting patriotic KGB chekka to replace then incumbent president Yeltsin, a puppet of the financier oligarchs, with Putin.

Asia has been the undisputed driver of the global economy more so when both USA and Europe began burning economically as early as 2007. Logically, the compass of SOS for fresh investments and loans would be Asia notably the China-Korea-ASEAN-India corridor.

The involvement of the Indian group Mittal in purchasing Alcelor of Europe is classic case of Asian buys. Bookkeeping accounts seemed to have served Mittal right then, with the merger not exactly draining down the stock value of Mittal in the bourses. Mittal-Alcelor came to be born as the largest steel producer, churning out a total volume of 100 tons of steel every year (toppling Korea’s POSCO as top producer).

That was then. The times have quite changed in an era when changes happen so rapidly. Western enterprises, notably those of the USA’s and EU’s, are magnets for perceptions of being leper corporations. Getting associated with them could burn down an Asian company’s own par value, and whether the trend could be reversible is something that is tantamount to launching a Herculean PR campaign to reduce negative perceptions owing to buy-ins/mergers.

Enormous window dressings have to be applied to the accounts of the leper companies too so as to sweeten their toxically sour values and make them more palatable to Asian investors. Whether Asia’s negotiating agents are naïve to the window dressings is something worth researching.

Caucasians still have that perception—conscious and/or unconscious—of Asians as “monkeys with no tails” (subhumans) who can be lured into traps without the latter noticing it. Western financier oligarchs led by the likes of the UK-Netherlands royal houses and Rothschild empire will brook no quarters in condescending on Asians who they regard as cattle or eaters worth controlling, subordinating as Mandingos, and short-changing in business transactions.

Such a perception hasn’t changed. Look at how the Indian executives of Mittal et al are perceived in Europe today not just by the oligarchs but by the White executives in their payroll. Why don’t you examine case studies in Western business schools and find out for yourself whether Asian groups are worth studying at all in the West. It’s the same old Victorian perception of racial hubris and arrogance at work!

That may just be what western ‘corporate social responsibility’ is all about: to continue derisively condescending at former Asian colonies by dangling carrots to poor communities in Asian backyards. In exchange, Asian ‘smart money’ moves to the West to ensure that leper companies keep on churning out more funds, with 1% of the profits later to allocated for ‘corporate social responsibility’.

Is that what we can regard as an impeccable fair exchange?

[Philippines, 13 August 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

CURRENCY: PERSIA’S OVERKILL WEAPON VERSUS NEW ROME (EU-USA)

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Observers may be wondering about what revived Persia (Shiite empire) possesses that serves as its leverage in a Manichean ‘clash of civilizations’ with revived Rome (EU-USA). Nukes and petrol (Iran cuts down oil pumping levels) are the most easily identifiable at the moment, and those with Jurassic linear thinking are inclined to forecast these possible leverages.

New Rome (EU-USA) itself has been projecting a rather alarmist tone that had overstressed those leverages as the weapons of its revived ancient enemy. In my analysis, this projection is just a cover-up or ‘decoy’ propaganda by new Rome whose technocratic-military-oligarchic elites know too well the real leverage that Iran possesses.

My contention is that currency will be new Persia’s most powerful weapon versus its ancient adversary. Iran’s ayatollahs and partisan ideologues aren’t dumb, they’ve been preparing for this weaponry a long time ago yet (since after Islam’s take-over of Teheran in the early 80s), and they will use this weapon with determined zeal.

The U.S. intelligence community had actually created dollar-manufacturing machines outside the USA to churn out humungous volumes of the currency that will escape the inquisitive eyes of Congress. The dollars are used for covert operations overseas—to buy weaponry, drugs, gold, and stash assets elsewhere beyond Congress’ prying eyes.

Sadly for the USA and New Rome, one such machine—located inside Iran during the regime of the Shah—fell into the hands of Islamic revolutionaries after the overthrow of the Shah. It would be overstretching naïve posturing if one thinks that Shiite Islam won’t use the machine for its purpose: to produce dollars by the mighty lot.

The Western oligarchy had shown its competence at destroying economies via currency attacks. Recall the devastation of the Asian economies when Soros & cronies waged an organized campaign of currency attacks beginning in June 1997. The offshoot was the Asian ‘financial meltdown’ as we called it then.

It isn’t difficult to recognize that Persia will use the same currency attack to take down the economies of its adversaries. New Rome is already teetering on the edge of a deeper economic collapse that could send it down to 3^rd world infamy in the short run, a fact that Persia’s experts and strategists are watching so closely with glee.

Persia may decide to rain dollars on the world’s coffers as a pre-emptive attack versus its ancient enemy. Let’s better take this scenario very seriously.

The moment that dollars will flood the global coffers, by which the dollar will become a mere over-the-counter commodity, both the Euro and Yen will go down in value as well. All those financial, monetary, and merchandise commodities that are dependent on the said currencies will come crashing down from economic roofs as well.

Bellicosity towards Persia will prove to be New Rome’s folly, as we will see later. It may prove more worthy for Rome to cajole its ancient enemy via carrots (diplomacy and merchandise leverages) rather than sticks that can only lead to the eventual destruction of the West in a hot war versus Iran (see previous article).

Even East Asia, which is the global growth driver today, will be severely affected by a crash of the dollar via a Persian currency attack. With gargantuan stocks of dollars stashed in their vaults, a badly devalued dollar will suddenly de-stabilize their domestic economy and external trade as well.

It is futile for the Anglo-European-American oligarchy to decide on nuking Iran in order to destroy its dollar-making capabilities. Vaults upon vaults full of the currency are most likely stocked up all over the planet via the agents and friends of Shiite (that includes mafia operators, corrupt state officials, and dirty bankers) from where the currency can be released like relentless rocket attack weapons.

The Manichean ‘war of the worlds’ betwixt ancient enemies Rome and Parthia will prove to be the most catastrophic of all wars. No one power will win this war at all, although Persia will end up having the last laugh as the West gets fragmented and destroyed.

[Philippines, 24 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

PERSIA RE-AWAKENS TO CONFRONT REVIVED ROME (EU-USA)

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good day! Magandang araw!

In previous articles I have articulated about ancient racial consciousness that could awaken at some juncture after a long dormancy period. The dormancy could be 2,000 years approximately, which coincides with Arnold Toynbee’s 2,000-year civilizational life.

The revival of ancient Roman consciousness had already been galvanizing, with the European Union and USA (w/ Canada) serving as the two (2) sections of the New Rome. Brussels is the capital of the revived Rome, a fact that is now well established. The revival of Bonapartism, also articulated in previous articles, is also unfolding at this moment, with war policy serving as option to abolish nations.

As such an eventuality is happening, another ancient power, Persia (Romans termed it Parthia) is also re-awakening. To recall history, Persia/Parthia challenged Rome with devastating results, and Rome was never able to conquer the Persians who continued to harass Roman provinces in Asia till the beginnings of Byzantium.

If there is any one power that knows the agenda of Rome (knows it instinctively or unconsciously), it is Rome’s ancient enemy Parthia. Parthia is now rising like a phoenix, and it is preparing to face New Rome in an offensive manner. ‘Offensive’ means confronting an adversary from a position of strength, just to stress the point.

New Rome has already prepared the Semitic coalition (tackled in previous articles) which it will use as a buffer against a marauding New Parthia. Both Sunni (gulf states) and Zion are armed to the teeth and are showing a semblance of an offensive coalition as well, though it remains to be seen whether the coalition will indeed be able to demonstrate muscle in a ‘clash of civilizations’ with revived Parthia.

A forecast Zion-Sunni versus Parthia conflict could indeed take place any time now, with New Rome (probably using American assets) igniting the war at its inception. But on the unconscious level, Zion & Sunni isn’t what Parthia will be staking claims on.

Parthia is after Rome (EU primarily, USA secondarily), and it will use the conflict with Zion & Sunni precisely to scourge the latter so that its scared peoples will migrate westward in massive herds. Waves after waves of Semites (largely Arabs) will move by land, water, and sea to Europe, the most likely new home, to escape Parthia’s wrath.

Berbers, Hamites, Arabs and black Africans will also most likely take sides in such a conflict, even as many of their scared peoples will move northwards to Europe from Africa in massive herds. Whoever the African hordes will be siding with, the result will be the same: tens of millions of its peoples buzzing off northwards to perceived safe havens.

The possible destruction of Iran via conventional means and limited frontier nukes may not necessarily destroy Parthia. Parthia is bigger than Iran, as Shiite allies will join the fray and be home to guerilla assets who can be used to harass the West no end. While the West uses conventional warfare, Parthia will use a combination of conventional and non-conventional strategies (e.g. Hezbollah rocket attacks inside Lebanon, Syria, and maybe even inside Europe).

Destroying and depopulating Iran will prove to be a hallow victory. Because even with Iran gone, at least 150 Millions of Arabs and African hordes will have nestled in Europe who, a short time later, will continue the ‘clash of civilizations’ wars via cultural conflicts and economic over-stretch for a continent that is now rapidly decaying back to 3^rd world status.

Cultural decay in the West can be a catastrophic result of the coming clash with Parthia. Just as in ancient times, when “barbarian” hordes took over Roman provinces, Arab and African hordes will be moving up to squeeze themselves in lands they will occupy. Meanwhile, Parthia will be having the last laugh as its ghost will hover over Europe via the migrant hordes.

If New Rome wishes to survive the coming decades, its sane stakeholders should think many times before waging a cataclysmic war versus a revived Parthia. No one power can ever win such a conflict, the only winner being Death & Destruction of a scale heretofore untold.

[Philippines, 24 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

EUROPE & AMERICA ON DOWNWARD SLIDE TO 3RD WORLD ECONOMIES

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Magandang gabi! Good evening!

It’s dusk time as I write, and this dusk at a time of intensifying monsoon rains seems to bode images of a grim future for the West at large. The European Union or EU members and the USA, the gigantic pillars of the global economy, are particularly in dire straits as they have entered the zone of flat growth and perpetual recession.

As already tackled by me in diverse articles, the East is surging forward bringing life to the global economy as a whole. In contrast, the West is spiraling downwards, and the strategies their stakeholders are putting into place to arrest the downslide are at best palliative. As the East continues to surge upward, the West continues to stagnate and decay.

After World War II, both Europe and America embarked on massive infrastructures and heated industrialization that saw both economies dominating the global economy’s wealth production. The result of that was an OECD producing 60% of Gross World Product or GWP for some decades (today that’s down to 40% of GWP and will still go down).

That was the situation back then. By the 1990s, the situation had been badly reversed as a result of liberal economic policies instituted in the previous decade (80s). The rise of a ‘virtual economy’ dominated by predatory finance was instrumental in the West’s massive de-industrialization, decay of relatively unattended infrastructures, decline in science & technology research, and neglect of the transport sector (only Japan & Germany were actively pursuing maglev railways).

By the early 1990s yet, certain experts among economists and sociologists in America began echoing alarming notes about the possible downslide of the USA into a 3^rd world country should the economic decay, such as that of relatively unattended infrastructures,  be allowed to continue till past 2010s.

In the late 1990s, my own circle of political economists in Manila (Sunday Kapihan/Independent Review) saw such a possibility ourselves as we consolidated the data made available to us thanks to the internet. By 1998 all fellows of our circle were convinced of the catastrophic direction that the USA and Europe were plunging themselves into, which could begin with a depression past 2005 and a thirdworldization by 2010s (both have been hit by recession this decade as a matter of fact).

When Katrina struck the USA and when those floods struck Europe just a few years back, and the same free market policies stubbornly remained in place, I knew the downslide would turn out to be irreversible. The fate of New Orleans, with its residents lining up for food akin to a depressed city, revealed an appallingly decayed 3^rd world city inside the USA which, to my mind, is but a fractional tip of a gigantic iceberg that are America’s decaying cities on the way to 3^rd world infamy.

If, for instance, just about 55% of the top 700 cities of the USA will be so badly decayed by 2015 and be declared as 3^rd world or ‘developing cities’, then we know more or less that America had catastrophically seen its worst state. With 97% of U.S. population living in cities (urban), likewise will the whole of the USA be declared as a ‘developing economy’ as early as 2015.

That is, again, if the destructive ‘virtual economy’ policies will not be taken down and reversed sweepingly. As I’ve declared in previous articles before (when Obama was still campaigning for the presidency), America must quickly return to a New Deal-type policy regime: interventionist, with great stress on revivifying infrastructures, revitalizing transport R&D (railways, shipping, etc), upscaling science & technology investments (including rockets), returning heavy industries (revive steel and many dead manufactures), and ensuring agricultural productivity.

Europe is not far behind such near-catastrophic downslide of the USA, just to remind our friends in Europe and the globe. Decisively institute interventionist policies in the continent, regulate the financial-banking sectors (criminalize predatory finance), and revivify social policy that were hallmarks of a once strong and mighty European economy.

And there’s no better time to act then now. Failure to act soon, by stubbornly instituting the palliatives (e.g. bailing out failing big banks, semi-regulating stock exchange), will be the best sure-fire formula to see a rapid thirdworldization of the West.

Before long, some messianic mad leaders in both continents would be drum-beating their being “stubbed behind the back” and generate  new Hitlers and Bonapartes in their backyards. Act now, Western peoples, to avoid this eventuality from ever taking place at all.

[Philippines, 21 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

WEST MARKETS SHRINK, ASIANS’ RISE AND OVERTAKE WEST SOON

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

Good evening from the Pearl of the Orient! 

The International Monetary Fund or IMF has been quite bullish lately about Asian growth. It had forecast East Asia’s average growth at past 7% for this year, and shares an equally positive growth trend for RP at 5.5%-6%. Just what could be the implications of the growth trends on the global economy and the West? 

As Asia expands, the West (Europe, USA, Canada, Japan) contracts. The trend will not change much over the next five (5) years, so let’s see where the East and West are headed for in the foreseeable future. 

In early 2008 yet, the economists and financial analysts of the West (or North) were of the opinion that the technological cutting edge of the West was already breached by Asia by the end of 2007 yet. Remember that 2007 was the beginning of a new cycle of recession for the West which began in the USA with the implosion of the realty bubble. 

Given that the Western economies are flat on their back growth-wise, and their toxic bubble economies have given them only virtual economy results (read: inflated values not based on real production but on speculation), there is ample reason to forecast that they will be mired in problems of saving their ailing banks, financial-monetary systems, and providing sovereign guarantees to their capitalists at the expense of taxpayers and infusing investments in the physical economy. This is now matter of fact, as we can clearly see. 

Western economies have suffered from the ill effects of continuous de-industrialization for decades, of being remiss in their own infrastructures (USA seems to be the worst in infrastructure decay), and deteriorating investments in science & technology. From being a producer economy, Western economy generally has become a parasitical ‘eater economy’ that stands on no clear foundation other than financial quicksand. 

In contrast, the Eastern economies have steadily built their strategic industries across the decades, reinforced their infrastructure expenditures and projects, and invested in science & technology. The Eastern economy generally has therefore been role-playing as ‘producer economy’ worth the emulation of other developing economies worldwide. 

Result: by 2007, at the downspin year of a recessionary West, the East overtook the West in terms of cutting-edge technologies. To qualify, the technologies we refer to are those life-inducing technologies, not those death & destruction technologies that the West has clear edge till these days. 

I still remember what my nationalist colleagues in the Sunday Kapihan that we then held every Sunday at the Sulo Hotel in Manila: the West knows nothing but perfect its Armaments.  Dr. Emmanuel Yap, an economist who finished his PhD at Harvard University, was the most vocal about that emphasis on the death & destruction focus of Western innovations. 

To continue, the added forecast that I’d share at this moment is this: from the years 2007 through 2015, Western markets will contract by at least 30%. That means their own consuming public will spend less and less across a 9-year stretch, until the consumption pattern will settle down by 2016 or so. Real GDP (gross domestic product) will radically decline during the period, shrinking by as much as 30%-40% contrasted to their 2006 levels (the last of the best years of the West). 

In contrast, the Eastern markets will expand by at least 100% during the period. The giants China and India will go farther than that, with China expanding by as much as 200% during the same period. That means the middle income earners in the East will continue to rise by the year and consume more products by the year, even travel more overseas year by year. 

Result: China will clearly overtake the shrunken economies of EU and USA by end of 2015. India may follow suit, at around the years 2020-2025. The last would be ASEAN, which will overtake the West by 2025-2030 period. 

Once a region overtakes others technology-wise, it will just be a matter of time before the same innovator region will overtake the rest wealth-wise. Technologies—physical technologies, biotechnologies, social technologies, medical technologies—are precisely the cutting edge practices that will enable one region to overtake others across the globe. 

The bad news for the West is this: if their own states and markets will fail to solve their ailing problems in infrastructures and reverse de-industrialization, they will pathetically go down as 3^rd world or ‘developing economies’ past 2020. No less than their own economists warned of this possibility in the early 1990s yet, and sadly no one paid attention to them in their own backyards. City after city in the USA and EU will immerse in urban decay, becoming 3^rd world cities in the process. 

My mother just retired from New York where she migrated since the 80s yet. She decided to come home back to the Philippines, and visited the Libis & Cubao areas of Quezon City/Manila suburb pronto upon her arrival. She was so deeply enchanted by the esthetic beauty of the architectures and planning in those mixed land use zones, while she complained of the dilapidated buildings and nauseating smells of cinema theatres in downtown Manhattan. 

Those observations are signs of the times indeed. In just a year from now, the Pagcor City will rise in Manila, housing the world’s tallest tower. Burj Dubai, Petronas Twin Towers, and Taipei 101 are already similar hallmarks in other Asian cities, signifying the power shift from East to West. 

The message is hereby brought to the West’s peoples: shift back from virtual reality to physical reality, from the virtual economy to the real economy. We Asians will help you along the way, as we’ve already been doing through our colossal treasuries investments, direct foreign investments, and quality Asian expatriates in your backyards that have been saving your collapsing economies from rapid decay.  

[Philippines, 13 July 2012] 

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]

2009 ECONOMIC FORECASTS: DEPRESSION, INTERVENTIONISM, REVERSAL

Erle Frayne Argonza

Magandang hapon! Good afternoon!

2009 will be another bleak year economically, more so for the North (USA, EU, Japan are topmost). The recession that began with the subprime mortgage bubble burst in America in 07, will ensue with even mightier turbulence, as there are no coherent policy solutions of a strategic nature that can salve the economic ailment on a global scale.

As already articulated by this economist/analyst in various articles, the policy environment must be changed and regulatory mechanisms strengthened to immediately gain business confidence and reverse the tide of catastrophe. On the domestic front, the solution begins by following a New Deal type of policy set, which will bring back the fervor of production-driven growth and full employment. On the international/global front, a new financial architecture must be agreed upon via a global summit called for the purpose, akin to a New Bretton Woods.

The only intervention mechanisms we observe today are bailouts of failing financial and business institutions, which are toxically immoral as those criminal oligarchs are even rewarded for their sordid looting and corrupt practices. Only Russia and China have openly resorted to a New Deal type solution, in consonance with the practices of the late regime of Franklin Delano Roosevelt of the USA. As far as the international-global front is concerned, the concurrence of a new treaty that will resonate a new financial architecture is nowhere in sight.

In the absence of genuine solutions that can stabilize ailing economies on both the domestic and international fronts, the downward spirals will continue, until the economies of the North will hit rock bottom depression that will be worse than the one that crashed the USA, UK and Germany almost a century ago (USA, UK, Germany were then the world’s top industrial & military powers). In the absence of capital control policies up North, capital flight will ensue at dizzying speed, draining their respective countries of trillions of dollars and/or euros at levels far higher than the 2008 drain.
The smart money that will sneak out will find better shelters in the South (emerging markets notably East Asia + India).

The possibility of North-based companies transferring their headquarters to the South is not entirely ruled out. The other option is for the corporate owners to transfer domicile from the North to the South, leaving their ailing mother companies in the hands of trusted stewards. The era of distance remote control-type management by corporate owners could very well begin this year, which will modify corporate governance by no small means.

The positive light for the global economy is that finally the corporate and state leaders will see light at the end of the tunnel and call for a global conference to carve out a new financial architecture. Laissez faire, a cadaver doctrine before the 2nd world war that was revived by the monetarists and greedy financiers, will finally lay to rest as it gives way to dirigist or interventionist economics.
Stronger regulatory mechanisms may be charted this year too, at least on paper.

New Deal, Keynesian, and welfare state doctrines will be blended together to produce an eclectic admixture. Since New Deal has an international facet into it thus rendering it more comprehensive, as the late FDR cogitated the need for international cooperation and development for all countries to end all wars and foment lasting peace, this doctrine will more or less be followed. We will not be surprised if, after the Davos conference, the shape of the future will already be definitively of the New Deal type.

Conclusively, even if the Northern economies will flatten down to zero and/or negative growths, the downward spiral may stop by the last quarter of the year. The full effects of the intervention solutions won’t be felt this year though, as it will take some more years to get them to galvanize. So let us brace for more turbulent winds, while hoping that the storm would finally stop so we can enjoy a delightful holiday season comes December.

[26 January 2009, Quezon City, MetroManila]

4TH REICH IS A TRANS-ATLANTIC 2-HEADED TOTALITARIAN MONSTER

Erle Frayne Argonza y Delago

Good morning, Fellows across the globe!

Let me continue to write awareness-raising materials about peace, cooperation and development, by focusing on the machinations of the financier oligarchs. The Empire is rising again, the logic being that it is a most fit governance machine for global oligarchic games and forthcoming conflicts.

Guessing gamers have been busy releasing speculations about the next financiers’ great war, and the state machinery that will undertake it. Lacking sophistication in political economy, the guessing gamers end up with superstitious sloganeering and fear-mongering, or reactive behaviors that hardly possess merit and serious attention by the more adroit minds of younger generations.

Following the historic patterns of Empire formations, it has always proved fruitful to wage synchronized conflicts and fatten the oligarchic purses in the process, if an empire formation would do the hot-work jobs for the oligarchs. The last Empire that did the massive aggression for the Anglo-Dutch oligarchs was dubbed as 3^rd Reich by its created abomination, Hitler & Nazi movement.

The same Anglo-Dutch financiers, who control at least 80% of the world’s total financial flows, are itching to create a 4^th Reich totalitarian state. It is time for a great war, the result of which will flatten the economies and enterprises of contending nations. The wrecked enterprises will then be bought at dirt cheap price by the same oligarchs, and the flattened economies funded back to life by the same financiers.

The question is, just exactly what oligarchic state formations to employ? The EU and USA each produce over 22% of the world gross product, or altogether produce 45% of GDP. The Anglo-Dutch financiers, on the other hand, control over 80% of the global financial flows. Using such data, it is very easy to see the congruence of continental economies and financier interests.

In my analysis, using a combination of institutional analysis and political economy, the combined EU-USA force would be excellent for creating the draconian 4^th Reich. Of course, the possibility of a North American Union can be examined, but such a Union doesn’t have the purse power to leverage political strength, do understand this. On the other hand, the EU cannot impose its will on the USA without public dissent being aroused to hell fires, and so no USA-EU political integration is in the offing.

The web of institutional arrangements will see a mega-alliance of USA-controlled North America and a Brussels-based European Union. The trans-Atlantic alliance is a last-ditch effort of the same financiers to exhibit muscle power over the planet, and only the USA-EU  axis remains as the loyal consenter to the financier machinations.  Japan can still veer away from the axis, while the emerging markets’ giants—China, India, Brazil—are beyond the ambit of such machinations.

The institutional plan calls for the implementation of the final treaty in Europe, the Lisbon Treaty, that will see the advanced unification of the continent. Synchronically, a North American Union, with a common currency called Amero, will replace the NAFTA, complete the political unification process, and form the American bulwark of the new fascist axis. That done, the 4^th Reich will be in place, rock-solid in armaments and awash with liquidities for more ambitious, gigantic war efforts.

Part of the governance innovations will be to abolish nations in both continents. Region-states will rise to replace the nations, each region being almost of equal population and size. With no more nations in Europe, the nuclear arsenal of France and UK will be placed in the custody of Brussels, thus transforming Brussels into a nuclear power overnight.

Transformed into police states, both continents will then wage population-control campaigns in the neighborhoods. Gangster groups will logically be deputized to augment police in searching for guns, drugs, insurgent evidences, terrorist cells, petty criminals, and other perceived enemies of the state. Those young ones engaging in binge drinking and sex orgy parties will also most likely be apprehended.

To accelerate public compliance toward the new order, riots can be engineered in cities across both continents. Food price hikes, oil price hikes, massive unemployment, social welfare cuts, overnight hyper-inflation are the most contentious issues that easily inflame quiet neighborhoods into angry urban mobs. Any high school student taking up a subject on sociology can very facilely see this possibility today. It has already been tried and tested across the globe in fact most recently.

While the continental backyards are being provided draconian order by police forces, the military assets will then flex their muscles for huge wars overseas. To ensure that competing regions and continents will be mowed down fast, inter-regional wars will be engineered. The Sunni-Israel versus Iran-Shiite war is now on the pipeline, waiting for a go-signal, a conflict that will see the weakening of the Semitic military establishments and economies, thus paving the way for less costly involvement there.

Other continents will surely see their own war fireworks fanned to the maximum most likely. It would be an instructive work to analyze and forecast the shaping of events there. For instance, the China-Taiwan and inter-Korean conflicts may ensue again on their 2^nd phases. Japanese aggression may also be pursued on a 2^nd phase, which could see the Japanese islands devastated with nukes combined with the Tesla Earthquake Machine to put an abrupt end to its zealous militarism.

To cap the article, it is a Trans-Atlantic 4^th Reich that is now fast rising. How fast the citizens of both America and Europe can neutralize the abominations now shaping up in their backyards remains to be observed. One this is sure here: it doesn’t matter who will be president of the USA or EU. The financiers and their paid technocratic-political subalterns have already ensured that the oligarchy is in control of the situation.

[Writ 22 June 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]