Posted tagged ‘conflict’

FOOD WARS ARE COMING, PREPARE!

January 14, 2014

FOOD WARS ARE COMING, PREPARE!

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Food wars are coming, prepare for the contingencies! This is now a visible possibility, so all those enthused development stakeholders and peace-builders better insert an extra agendum on their ‘key result areas’.

Given the so many sources of conflict that are natural resources related, the latest ones being the ‘water wars’, it is no longer a remote possibility that food wars will erupt in some ‘hot soup spots’ in the world. Such hot spots are not those ones the world knows today (e.g. Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula, Taiwan-China strait) that can be potential starting points for great wars. But somehow, the areas and the food wars coming can ‘cross-cut’ the issues involving conflicts in the hot spots we know.

The scenario would be as follows:

· A convergence of volatilities in the global market would, at one conjuncture, lead to simultaneous price increases in food, oil/energy, metals, utilities. Hoarding then takes place at alarmingly uncontrollable levels. Shockingly, the old ‘policy tools’ to control prices and hoarding won’t work.

· Massive urban riots and upheavals in the affected rural areas take place. New militia groups will rise almost overnight, challenging both national armies and established warlord and rebel groups where these are found.

· Noticing that their own food, energy, base metal stocks are near or pass the critical points, affected states will then turn blind eye to the militias. Tying up with underworld for arms and information, the militias would then conduct quick eco-scan of neighboring countries that are relatively porous for food ransack operations. Key areas would be mapped out as professionally as possible.

· Noticing their own relative porosity, the panic response of affected food supplier states would be to plug their borders as quickly as they can before hothead militias come. They may do panic last-level talks with the state leaders of neighboring countries, who in turn will simply claim that they do not control warlord/militia groups at all. They may send token protection groups at the border.

· Anticipating such moves, the militias, forming cross-country alliances, will mount a coordinated surprise attack. Invasive entries will be done from around 5-6 country origins, using both dawn and dusk attacks. Simultaneous attacks via air, sea, land, rivers & lakes will be mounted on all fronts.

· Effectively unable to prevent the coordinated invasion, the national army/police of the affected state will watch in horror as the rapid moving invaders coalesce with internal players (‘dog of wars’ supplied by local mafia or related groups) to open and ransack warehouses.

· The invaders will then retreat back to their base origins as quick as they’ve entered the porous state. Hot pursuit is simply nil, save for a few sporadic gunfights with retreating forces.

· The affected state will then demand for indemnification or equivalent payment from the militias’ respective states, none of which may come at all. Given the already burgeoning subsidies by states to shore up domestic supplies and prevent further civil unrest due to the crisis, the states will simply have no resource for indemnification. To print more money for indemnification would be to risk hyper-inflation on top of an already inflationary environment.

· With hardly any sincere face-saving moves by the militias’ states, the affected state may then be provoked into a ‘call to arms’ and do some punitive attacks on some quick neighbors. It can also unleash the firepower of rebel groups from the ransacking countries that are based in its territory, arm these groups and make them lead punitive attacks.

· Unless cooler heads prevail in the region, a regional conflagration could ensue, hence widening the latitudes of the conflict. The original ‘hot soup’ for the stomach then turns to a ‘hot caldron’ of total war. Multilateral efforts may fail for a time, as the conflicts happen in at least three (3) world regions.

Partners in development and peace, this scenario can no longer be ignored today. Let us all prepare for the eventuality. If it can be stopped by cutting off the bud before it blooms, whatever that may take, then let’s better do it as soon as we can. Time is now against us, I believe, as events are moving so fast they happen as soon as we forecast them, like the formation of the food cartels.

If there would still be time to constitute strategic studies teams that can eco-scan the planet and identify possible ‘hot soup spots’, this would be a welcome move. Failing to recognize the evolving contingency, let’s not get shocked at all when the paramilitary ‘dogs of war’ will be at the gates of the bereaved states. They deserve some ‘hot soup’ after all, we may surmise.

 

[Writ 04 May 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]

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HACIENDA LUISITA REMAINS THORNY & THREAT-FILLED

July 12, 2011

HACIENDA LUISITA REMAINS THORNY & THREAT-FILLED
Erle Frayne D. Argonza
Good day!
The thorny Hacienda Luisita, among the grand estates of the Cojuangco family, remains as threat-filled as ever. It is a showcase of a land reform executive decision that has gone haywire. The Supreme Court’s lackadaisical behavior shown with respect to this case has made the issue more murky.
The PH Supreme Court has earned the monicker of ‘hoodlums in robes’ in the 1990s. Have the noblesse Justices of the highest court remained as just as expected with regards to issues affecting the marginal sectors in particular? Hasn’t PH dropped off that ‘hoodlums’ image yet for the Justices of its highest court?
Below is a statement from the Hacienda Luisita Peasant Supporters Network Tarlac. It sums up the update on the thorny estate.
[Philippines, 06 July 2011]

Hacienda Luista Peasant Supporters Network Tarlac
SC Decision on Luisita Land Dispute: Legalizing the Theft of Farmworkers’ Lands
We, members of the Hacienda Luisita Peasant Supporters Network – a group of individuals and organizations supporting the farmers and farm workers of Hacienda Luisita – express our utmost outrage over decision of the Supreme Court to bring the case of the Hacienda Luista back to square one by ordering the Department of Agrarian Reform to conduct another referendum among farm worker-beneficiaries to choose between shares of stocks or land.
The Network believes that the High Court’s decision today is a setback for the Hacienda Luisita farmers’ struggle for land and justice. It subjects the longest-running land dispute in the country to a mere “popularity” vote instead of advancing what is right and just – that is, to install the legitimate farm worker beneficiaries to their land by freely distributing the Luisita lands to its rightful owners. This decision sets a bad precedent for all land disputes in the country – especially those involving the anti-farmer Stock Distribution Scheme currently in place in Hacienda Luisita.
The High Court’s decision is a bitter pill sugar-coated with nice-sounding phrases revoking the Stock Distribution Option to make it acceptable to the farmers workers but, in reality, retaining the corporate scheme which prevents the actual distribution of land to the farm workers.
For more than two decades, HLI has tried to manipulate the farm workers for years. They have already raked in multi-billion profits by selling and converting sizable portions of the land and by exploiting the labor of the farm workers. But the great strike of more than 5,000 farm workers in 2004 is testament that farm workers have already rejected this kind of arrangement. Furthermore, the success of the Bungkalan campaign where Hacienda Luisita farmers and their families collectively till the land for their benefit only shows that the farmers are capable of uplifting their condition without the onerous partnership with the Cojuangcos.
Also, we believe that the referendum is a tool for machinations and maneuverings of the Cojuangcos to retain their ownership and control over the sprawling hacienda. The compromise deal cooked up last August 2010 witnessed the excessive release of money, with the HLI dangling a P150-million financial assistance package to the farmers so that the latter would give up their claims to the land.
Finally, we call all peasant advocates, truth- and justice-loving Filipinos to join the mobilizations of the Hacienda Luisita farmers in the coming days expressing their disappointment and anger over the Supreme Court’s anti-farmer ruling.

INDIA-PAKISTAN BETTER HARMONIZE TIES FOR YOUNG GENERATIONS’ SAKE

May 25, 2011

INDIA-PAKISTAN BETTER HARMONIZE TIES FOR YOUNG GENERATIONS’ SAKE

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Both India and Pakistan are considered as ‘emerging markets’. The global economy is being driven upwards today by ‘emerging markets’, and so it pays for two such economic powers to finally say goodbye to their antiquated enmities and shift to the high gear towards cooperation, synergy, and mutual respect.

I am no citizen of both countries but rather that of an outside observer. As a development expert who is a strong advocate of the Asian Dream, I reserve my right to opinionate on the state of affairs of my region and continent, and so I strongly go for a harmonized relationship among all countries for the sake of our young and future generations of Asians.

Indians and Pakistanis alike better face it: they belong to ‘emerging markets’ and have the responsibility to build the image of each one of them. Such an image must be one that is emulated by other countries in Asia and more so in other continents who’s very own peoples are looking up to the ‘emerging markets’ today as the saviors of the global economy.

Indians and Pakistanis have new responsibilities on their shoulders, and so they better say goodbye to old enmities. A drastic de-linkage from those enmities and their sources must be quickly undertaken, consensus built the quickest time possible, and bilateral talks for economic cooperation be concurred quickly.

One of the areas for bilateral talks would be the concurrence for interconnecting both countries via land, air, shipping, and railways. Such an effort would render both countries as builders of the New Silk Road, which as I was saying in a previous article must be built today by Asians.

The New Silk Road will give the planet a new breathing space, a new life in an Age of Hope, and so efforts to quash down old enmities must be taken at all cost. By perpetuating the enmities between these economic might of countries that are both scions of Akbar the Great, India and Pakistan are only showing the way to deterioration and Dark Age.

Both India and Pakistan better review the life of Akbar and the Mogul emperors, as the Moguls infused principles of efficiency, planning, cooperation and synergy by diverse stakeholders within the Empire. Those are golden lessons coming from Akbar, and such lessons became parts of the cultural templates of South Asians that make the jewels worth the admiration by other nations.

Akbar stands for efficiency, constructivism, cooperation, prestige projects, urban planning, architectural wonders, and more. Isn’t it great that each of the states of India and Pakistan build their governance institutions following an ‘Akbarian route’?

By persisting on their mutual bellicosity and fuming noses prepared for next wars, I will infer such behavior as ‘Nero complex’, and any Nero is dangerous for Asians. Indians and Pakistanis, please make the choice now: either take the Akbar route or Nero route. There can be no in-between route.

[Philippines, 17 May 2011]
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Come Visit E. Argonza’s blogs & website anytime!

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KHADAFY IS DEMONIC!

February 25, 2011

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Good evening to all fellow global citizens!

First of all, I extend my solidarity to all struggling Libyan pro-democracy people. Being among the youthful political activists that overthrew the dictator Marcos in my beloved Philippines twenty-five years ago, I do identify well with the young patriots of Libya and Arab states that are clamoring for democratic governance via civil dis-obedience or ‘people power’.

As to the Jurassic perpetual president of Libya, Col. Moammar Khadafy, I have only a single word to describe him today: DEMONIC! Khadafy had ceased to be a human being, had crossed over to the terrain of the demonic, and had lost all sense of touch with reality in his country and the planet.

I couldn’t say exactly as to the precise time that Khadafy had been dominated by his own Inner Demon. He could have very well been formerly human, but judging by the way he exhibited his cruelty towards his very own people, he had ceased to be human at all.

Let it be clarified that I have no penchant for demonizing the estranged leader of Libya. On the contrary, I was once among those who sympathized with Khadafy and the socialist movement that he led. His movement overthrew the archaic state of Libya and replaced it with a republican form, albeit under his authoritarian stewardship.

Being then enamored to militant nationalist 3rd world movements that veered towards the Left, I strived hard to study the same movements and the ideologies that underpinned them. I was likewise involved with a domestic nationalist movement here in Filipinas.

From a cousin of mine did I receive a copy of Khadafy’s ‘green book’, which to my own amusement espoused an Arab form of socialism. Khadafy was well attuned to the secular nationalist to socialist ideologies then raging popularly among Arabs, exemplified by the Ba’ath Party ideology.

But time had elapsed, and the ideological trappings of the patriotic dictators of Arab lands have ossified. Entrenched in power for so long, there was only greed and lust for power, aside from lust for blood, that characterized the governance by the said authoritarian regimes.

From ‘green book’ socialism to militaristic obscurantism, Khadafy’s incumbency has borne witness to the shift from rational-legal modality to the Demonic Mind. To direct air force planes to bombard peaceful demonstrators, on top of the savage gunning down of the same protesters by blood-thirsty troops, is indicative of the lost of touch with conscience and reason.

Khadafi and his close minions are no longer human beings and should by all means be overthrown from power. Not only that, they should be tried for war crimes by the United Nations or equivalent international body. They should pay heavily for their crimes against the Libyan nation.

I won’t be surprised if, at this very moment, more sane minds in Africa are now hatching contingency measures such as to send a continentally-sanctioned invasion force to flash out the dirty & demonic regime of Khadafy. Africa should act fast and sweepingly decisive and demonstrate the same political will that it exhibited to flash out demonic regimes such as the previous genocidal regime of Rwanda.

Such an option is only a contingency ‘plan B’ option and need not be resorted to. The people of Libya are getting the upper hand in the move to institute democracy in their nation, they represent the nation in fact, and the nation should be prevail over an unjust, demonic regime that had lost all legitimacy to govern.

Khadafi is not the Libyan nation, and the nation is not Khadafi.

Hail the pro-democracy youthful patriots of Libya! You shall overcome!

[Philippines, 22 February 2011]

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Come Visit E. Argonza’s blogs anytime!

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‘CLASH OF GENERATIONS’ IN ARAB TURMOIL

February 25, 2011

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

Magandang araw sa inyo! Good day to you all! To the Arab pro-democracy forces, kudos for your initial successes in Tunisia and Egypt!

The unfolding democratization of Arab republics via people power means has got many sympathetic eyes aglow outside the Arab world. That includes this analyst who was among the youthful professionals that militantly brought down the Marcos dictatorship in 1986.

The clash within the Arab republics should not be equated, however, to a simplistic ‘clash of ideologies’. Neither is the conflict some ‘clash of civilizations’ that is being propagated today by the global oligarchy through sub-altern extremist groups.

I would prefer to highlight the conflict as a ‘clash of generations’. Though no fan of the Japanese technocrat Kenichi Ohmae, I am in tune with his thesis that the conflicts of the future will be one of ‘clash of generations’.

Much earlier than Ohmae, the Frankfurt school thinkers Herbert Marcuse and Jurgen Habermas already articulated on the discourse of the youth taking the cudgels for world-changing endeavors. The social turmoils of the 1960s up through the early ‘70s were largely initiated by the Youth, in far contrast to previous ones that were led by the working class astride a socialist ideology.

Fact of the matter is, the working class (via socialist parties) has been tailing behind in those conflicts of the past. In the Arab turmoils of the day, the influential Islamic groups have been quite tailing behind in initiating the protests versus the Permanent President regimes. It were the young ones—youth and young middle aged citizens—who initiated and manned the protest actions, though they may have seen light in some token senior citizen figures.

One shouldn’t make the slap-stick comedy that the Arab revolutions—that toppled perpetual presidents in Tunisia and Egypt—were genuine successes of ‘anarchist’ movements. That goes back to old hat 19th century ideological discourse, and as I’ve stated earlier, the clash is not one of ideologies.

The Turmoil (with capital T to stress) in the Arab republics is one of ‘clash of generations’. It practically pitted the old versus the young. The older ones, who support the entrenched political elites, are those grounded in ideology cum clientelist politics. The younger ones, who are largely ‘netizens’, possess an outlook or perspective that is more global or trans-ideology, though their emerging discourses tend to appropriate from available ‘nation’ and ‘people’ discourse of old.

The Arab revolutions have some remarkable features that contrast with the people power revolutions that overthrew military dictatorships of the late 20th century. The earlier revolutions (such as my own country’s in 86) were largely led by the ‘middle class’ or ‘middle forces’, while the Arab revolutions were initiated by young ‘netizens’ with a rather de-centered social feature or one that can’t be reduced to the class question.

Some quarters may hazard some reflections, using Edward Said and Antonio Gramsci, that intellectuals were the core articulators of the social turbulence. That would be belaboring the obvious by highlighting the micro-facets of the change, or those structures and processes that even kindergarten minds can easily perceive.

There is an over-arching change going on in the psyche of the younger generation Arabs of the day, and it pays to observe and use the logic of induction to conclude about what that change is. Or better still, employ ‘logic of abduction’ as what Charles Sanders Peirce innovated on, by holding in abeyance any hypothesis about the phenomenon, and generate the hypothesis, discourse, and conclusions later.

For now, let us bring the message across to global Western oligarchy to desist from further manipulating the Arabs’ turmoil for their ulterior motives. Like the turbulence going on in the global economy that isn’t susceptible to oligarchic manipulation, the Arabs’ ‘clash of generations’ is no stuff for manipulation by the same evil oligarchs who comprise the secret government called ‘new world order’.

The oligarchic cabals should recognize by now that their strangulation of peoples’ psyche and souls for nigh eons is now coming to a close. It is now time to consider moving away from polarities towards cooperation, consensus, and Oneness that is, in fact, the compass of the future.

[Philippines, 21 February 2011]

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Come Visit E. Argonza’s blogs anytime!

Social Blogs:

IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com

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BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com

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ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com

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@SOULCAST: http://www.soulcast.com/efdargon

Website & Mixed Blogs:

MULTIPLY: http://efdargon.multiply.com

AFRICA ON FIRE!

February 4, 2011

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

Africa is on fire. From north to south, east to west of the continent, politico-military turbulences are taking place, hence tending to confuse and scale up fear among the ordinary folks of the continent.

 

You can go ahead and harbor your own perspective in explaining the causes of the conflicts there. You can see the conflicts from a domestic vantage point, thus explaining turbulence based on internal factors such as religious, ethnic, and geopolitical factors. You can also choose to explain them from the vantage point of a globalist, thus explicating the turbulences as offshoots of global synarchy of chaos fomented by the financier oligarchs of the West.

 

At a time when a new millennium is accelerating momentum, bringing forth glad tidings of prosperity and relative peace, hot fires are taking place in Africa. Whether a single set of explanations would suffice to comprehend the predominance of negative imagery in the continent would be subject of debates. What is clear first of all is that the continental imagery tends to recline on the negative which bodes ill for the Africans.

 

To name a few representative projections of the turbulences: growing protests in Tunisia; contested poll results in Cote d’Ivory, spiraling into civil war proportions; paper governance in Somalia where pirates abound as offshoot of a failed state; still unabated turbulence in Zimbabwe, spilling off millions of migrants to South Africa; Sudan’s split between North and South as a result of religious and ethnic divergences; and, brewing conflict between Copts and Muslims in Egypt.

 

Those representative turbulences alone demonstrate that in every corridor of the continent—north, east, west, south—turbulence is the pattern. The anarchy practically overshadows or masks the peace, cooperation and development now going on in countries that have struggled hard to depart from the path of failed states that were balkanized by internecine wars.

 

Let us take the case of the Sahara. A gigantic effort to green the historically desert region has been going on for years now, which to me is a milestone event that will reverse the age-old desertification. With the turbulences going on in the cardinal corridors of the continent, who would now care to examine and extol the very admirable eco-balancing inter-country efforts in the pan-Sahara?

 

Tanzania and Ghana would also be worth your enquiry. Both countries are undertaking development efforts, with external investors showing great interest in both countries as showcase of cross-border direct foreign investments. Ghana is most especially important to my beloved Philippines, as many of its leaders were schooled by top universities in Manila. Who would ever care for such exemplary developments in both countries, with the media perpetually presenting staccato and crescendo of turbulences in the continent?

 

Africa is indeed on fire, all of its representative regions have their respective versions of hot spots, so the situation must first of all be accepted by all stakeholders there. There must be no denying about the hot fires and brewing caldrons, so that the alternative courses of action can be configured, and the compass of peace be identified and executed.

 

As an external observer who is keenly interested in seeing Africa accelerate its development and poverty-reduction, I am very supportive of efforts by all stakeholders in the continent to forge ahead the agenda for stamping out hot fires, contain brewing caldrons, and prevent other fires from igniting in the foreseeable future. Africans who wish for my moral support can go ahead and let me sign advocacy positions that need the support of solidarity groups and individuals outside of the continent as I’ve done in the past.

 

Watching those exemplars of positive development in the continent, I am optimistic that Africans will be able to transcend their predicaments, imbroglios, and anarchies in due time. I hope that the fast rising ‘emerging markets’ in other continents would expand and diversify on their support for peace and development in Africa, and reinforce their deployment of grassroots volunteers to the continent.

 

To all concerned Africans, Love & Peace! You shall overcome!

 

[Philippines, 01 February 2011]

 

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Come Visit E. Argonza’s blogs anytime!

 

Social Blogs:

IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com

 

Wisdom/Spiritual Blogs:

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com

 

Poetry & Art Blogs:

ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com

 

Mixed Blends Blogs:

@MULTIPLY: http://efdargon.multiply.com

@FRIENDSTER: http://erleargonza.blog.friendster.com

@SOULCAST: http://www.soulcast.com/efdargon

ZION-SUNNI COALITION: ANCIENT PAN-SEMITISM SURFACING

August 2, 2010

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Zion is courting Sunni and vice versa, courtesy of neo-conservative technocrats from Pentagon in tandem with the agents of the Anglo-European oligarchy. The enemy that both camps have to confront—Shiite Persia—is a very determined one and is arming to the teeth to advance its own interest.

Scrape both Zion and Sunni off the surface, and one can easily reveal the ancient Semitic bloodline that runs in both camps. The same Semites who for millennia fought for survival against the might of Persia, are now uniting to face Persia once again in a last war that fits well into the narrative of the last battle between the forces of Ahriman  versus those of Ahura Mazda.

Cross over to the Shiite camp and do the same: scrape off Shiite Islam from the surface. Voila! The Persian bloodline is revealed to the observer in a very kindergarten fashion of quiz. Persia is resurfacing, Persian psyche that was long dormant is reviving, and sooner or later the empire that was so hated by its neighbors may come rampaging again to harass and conquer (if it can) the potentates of the ancient empire.

Racial consciousness, an awareness that operates on the collective level, doesn’t seem to die at all. At some juncture in the future, the dormant racial consciousness of a people may re-awaken again. I see this ancient racial consciousness re-awakening in today’s context when the borderline between reason and madness has been effectively erased.

Such is the case of the Semitic peoples, who were bred from the bloodlines of the Levantine Canaanites and the Sumerians. The Canaanites were a colored people while the Sumerians were white or Caucasian. The resulting race was a hybrid psyche that is suited to the rough and tough terrains of the Levant, Arabian peninsula, and North Africa’s sand dunes.

Indubitably, the Semites have competed against each other for millennia, this is beyond question. The future Arabs warred against each other, and so did the future Jews had their own conflicts. Hebrew-Arab conflict likewise brewed and boiled caldrons, conflicts whose embers haven’t ceased to die till now.

For some time, pan-Arabism served as a cementing force with which to unite the warring Arab tribes against an aggressive Zion. Real as the Zion-Arab conflict may seem, that reality can always get erased as soon as the line of polarity shifts.

With the decline of pan-Arabism came the advent of fundamentalist Islam represented by Shiite revivalism, a radical version of Islam that seeks to destroy both Zion and de-fang Western-collaborating Sunni sheikhdoms.

The advent of Shiite revivalism is indubitably the cementing force that is now uniting both Hebrews and Arabs together. No matter how superficial the Zion-Sunni coalition may appear for now, the superficiality will fade once the ferocity of Shiite Persia will be demonstrated with determined zeal in a war versus the coalition.

To this analyst, Zion and Sunni are no strange bedfellows. The genetic-psychical unity that is deeply embedded in the very DNA of all Semites is the decisive factor that will determine who should be friends versus a perceived predatory enemy, and such an enemy is no other than Persia in its new form as Shiite Islam.

No longer pan-Arabism but pan-Semitism is the order of the day. Pan-Semitism in the aegis of globalization is a borderless racial re-awakening. It is interesting to watch the formation of the contours of the emerging coalition as a surfacing of ancient unity and hatred versus a neo-Persian empire in the neighborhood.

[Philippines, 22 July 2010]

[See: IKONOKLAST: http://erleargonza.blogspot.com,

UNLADTAU: https://unladtau.wordpress.com,

COSMICBUHAY: http://cosmicbuhay.blogspot.com,

BRIGHTWORLD: http://erlefraynebrightworld.wordpress.com, ARTBLOG: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com,

ARGONZAPOEM: http://argonzapoem.blogspot.com]