Posted tagged ‘war’

ZAIBATSU & WESTERN OLIGARCHS’ ALLIANCE CRAMBLES, WAR LOOMS!

March 30, 2010

ZAIBATSU & WESTERN OLIGARCHS’ ALLIANCE CRAMBLES, WAR LOOMS!

Erle Frayne Argonza

Magandang hapon sa inyong lahat! Good afternoon to you all!

Just about a few weeks back, the world was shocked (as per media sensationalism) by the failures of new Toyota models on the road, leading to deaths of over twenty (20) riders in the USA. Within hours of the news, panic arose among riders, congressional investigation began, and Toyota was compelled to pull back 7-digit cars-in-use from the roads for retrofitting works.

The world watched as Toyoda-san, scion of the Toyota zaibatsu founder, wept before the congressional committee that investigated the fiasco and near-to-maelstrom in the markets caused by it. I wished I could have extended commiseration to Mr. Toyoda, but knowing the cold-blooded greed of the oligarchs made me adopt the scientific attitude of detachedly observing a species exhibiting behavior under duress.

My take of the matter, which some economists and investments analysts in the USA incidentally confirm, is that an organized bashing of oligarchs of Asian origin the West is in progress. Using typical Freud-type analysis, I’d say the bashing is very large-scale, with the Toyota- and Hyundai-bashing representing merely the tip of an iceberg, or better still a mere scratch in the skin surface.

My preliminary thought on the matter is that the Anglo-European oligarchy, led by the greedy financiers whose notoriety in looting the portfolio & derivatives markets led to the recent global financial meltdown, is calling it quits with their long-time partners from East Asia. The marriage is over, and so we better expect de-mergers and hostile take-over by the Western oligarchs of the assets and/or enterprises of their East Asian counterparts.

To recall, after the World War II, humanity was confronted with a new polarization forged as the Cold War between capitalism and communism. New spheres of influence have to be crafted pronto by the world powers, with the West securing Japan’s zaibatsu loyalty through sticks (force, de-militarizing Japan) and carrots (permitting Japan to achieve industrial prosperity, but subordinated to the West).

The zaibatsus (Japan), chaebols (Korea), emerging oligarchs of Taiwan and the Far East, zamindars (India), and more, or those landlord-gentry elites who were enticed to invest in industries and emerging commercial enterprise, sooner or later found no better recourse than to ally themselves with Anglo-European oligarchs (bankers, financiers, industrialists, rentiers) in order to preserve family wealth and elevate these to new levels.

Fast-forward to the 1980s, when the zaibatsus reached their peak of prestige brought about by the gigantic strides of Japanese firms, globalization became the buzz-word as Japanese technocrats cajoled the West into creating a borderless world economy. Zaibatsus thus made headway in their merger schemes with Anglo-European businesses, and nary a conglomerate in the West refused the sweet offers of the likes of Sony and Toyota to name some representative East Asian champions.

The last of such waves of mergers and ‘Asian offensives’ in the west saw the Indian tycoons such as Mittal investing heavily in the western backyards, and merging with western businesses when opportunities do open up (e.g. Mittal steel). Asian emerging markets’ own companies followed through this wave, with the likes of San Miguel Corp of the Philippines buying NatFood of Australia at one time (before reselling/divesting).

It seems that the ever-predatory financiers of the West will have nothing like a permanent alliance with the Asian taipans & nascent oligarchs. Just like in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies among global corporate owners. What is nasty about the matter is that the western oligarchs are showing their fascistic, if not racist propensities too soon.

The Toyota-bashing will sooner or later find its equivalent in other industrial and commercial concerns. The goal of the western financiers is to eventually take over the eastern assets, such as what the Mittal steel exemplifies, where Lakshmi Mittal is but the nominal controlling shareholder of a steel giant that is actually now owned and controlled by the pals of George Soros & House of Rothschild.

Whether the zaibatsu-bashing will sooner or later lead to a crack in the Trilateral Commission—created by the same predators to consolidate the wealth and powers of the Northern oligarchs (West + Japan)—remains to be seen. The zaibatsus won’t take slights that easily, and surely enough they won’t take betrayals from their Western counterparts lightly.

The zaibatsus possess enormous quantities of precious wealth that the Western financiers (whose wealth is largely useless debt papers and bills) could only salivate upon: gold bullions. Such bullions were amassed by the Imperial Japanese state in Asia during the heydays of militarist onslaughts (‘36-‘45). Stashed safely inside underground bunkers and cross-island tunnels, they were utilized to bankroll the industrialization of Japan (by zaibatsus, with Emperor Hirohito’s blessings). These must must be worth hundreds of trillions of dollars today, if we estimate them to be at least two (2) million tons.

Whereas the western financiers cannot operate alone as they have to collaborate with each other (e.g. Venetian, Dutch, German, English financiers coming together in gigantic trusts), the zaibatsus can go it alone and wage business offensives using their enormous assets. The same zaibatsus can also finance wars so facilely, such as they’ve done for the USA’s wars in Iraq (early 90s & 2001-02).

The zaibatsus can always choose to go their own way, foment new militarism in Japan, and create a new sphere of influence that can rival the western powers’ (if one can call bankrupt states in the West as powers). Note that at this time, within a span of less than a year, Japan can create nukes arms and unleash its version of the Tesla Earthquake Machine (TEM), simply by employing networks of yakuza and global mafia families to get their WMDs to terror groups, while reserving their own military assets for more ambitious confrontations.

How the latest brickbats between the western oligarchs and zaibatsu-Asians will figure in the forthcoming Philippine elections is something worth observing by strategic research analysts. Whether the Philippines remains in the sphere of influence of the western oligarchy, or move closer to zaibatsu orbit via covert maneuverings, will be contended in the next polls.

The Philippines may decide to install a nationalist government, and stay clear from the line of fire between two potential oligarchic adversaries. And, hopefully, the new government in Manila will sharpen its observation of changing oligarchic templates, and position itself to forge the ASEAN into a regional power later free from encumbrances with the aforesaid contending oligarchic factions.

[Philippines, 23 March 2010]

GLOBAL TOTALITARIAN POLICE-STATE & TECHNOTRONIC SOCIETY: EXTENDING CAPITALIST LIFE

September 19, 2008

Erle Frayne Argonza

Let me go back to the question of what lies ahead of us—when ‘late’ capitalism dies and yet capitalism will be extended.  I am not discounting the possibility that capitalism’s life span will be extended, but this will no longer be ‘late’ capital, just to remind everyone.

You better fasten your seat belts, as the stormy days ahead will come for sure, and as this heraldry from me will sound as stormy already as those times ahead. Stormy heraldry, because (a) you will not come to like it and that (b) its impact will be so nauseating and revolting that you’d rather sedate yourself most quickly with wine, liquor, pot or anything that can reduce that revulsion. I forgot, for the fundamentalists, you’d pray for hours to allay your fears.

By the time ‘late’ capital arrived up to the current juncture, or roughly the whole of the post-Great Depression era, the following developments have come about:

·        State intervention/planning was infused into the system. Post-war former colonies proceeded on their industrial development tracks along this dirigist market model. The USA and Europe were saved from collapsing, emerging markets appeared.

 

·        Market reforms were later introduced, bringing back free market and free trade principles. Centrally planned economies China and Vietnam infused market reforms to construct a ‘social market’ model, while former socialist states folded up in Eastern Europe and 3rd world states.

 

·        The era of ‘mad economics’ resulted from the system integration efforts of ‘instrumental reason’. The dividing line between the rational and the mad in decision-making and system maintenance was effectively deconstructed and erased. In esoteric-mystical argot, this era is the period of the Demonic Mind, the era of Anti-Christ.

 

·        ‘Virtual economy’ based on predatory financial practices of creating values from out of money flows (rather than from concrete production) was exemplified by ‘bubble economies’. Bubble bursts were followed by destructive, catastrophic crises and shrinkages of affected economies.

 

·        Nation-states’ economies came to be integrated into a single economy, via globalization. A planetary economy was already institutionalized, yet no planetary state exists to regulate conduct of commerce and business at a global level. The contradiction between the norms of the planetary economy and the interests of the nation-state has led in no small measure to the fragmentation of nation-states and  emergence of mini-states. Globalization has been undermining the nation-state in general.

 

·        All of such developments will hyper-converge in the months ahead in a general system crisis characterized by hyper-inflation, great depression, and total system collapse. As the economist Lyndon LaRouche correctly perceived, that collapse phase is now taking place at a rapid rate.

 

·        Wars and hostilities are intensifying across the globe. Surrogate wars of world powers have also been rehearsed, such as the Georgia-Russia conflict. All of these conflicts will hyper-converge in a World War III or intercontinental war, the duration of which no one can forecast so easily.

 

So, going back to the issue, if the ‘virtual economy’ cannot be sustained and its collapse will bring the final death blow on ‘late’ capital, is it possible to extend capitalism’s life span? Yes, the possibility is very likely. But the context emerging from the resolution of the general global crisis will hardly resemble what you’ve ever seen before nor imagine.

First of all, the consolidation of the system and attempts to prolong it can never take place without draconian police state tactics. As Lenin correctly emphasized, the dividing line between liberalism and fascism is a superficial one. Neo-fascism will become the political modality in order to save capitalism and bring it to its next phase. State terror heretofore untold will unravel the old order of things and bring the ‘new world order’ into place, resulting to pogroms that will dwarf both Hitler’s ‘final solution’ and Stalin’s ‘purges’ combined.

The possibility of a global state will finally become granite rock, with the United Nations most likely the base for creating that global regulatory mechanism governed by a demonic ‘world rule of law’. This global state will have its own military and police forces, and will have no qualms in quelling dissent and enforcing global fiats in order to bring forth the ‘new world order’.

The global corporations of the moment, whose assets and revenues are already so huge that they dwarf those of nation-states’, will all the more become gigantic. The same corporations will then declare their respective turfs among region-states and city-states that will be created from the dismantled nations. Each mega-corporation will be endowed with its own private army, akin to the British East India Company or BEIC of old, of professional mercenaries beholden to no state but to the corporation, but which can be mandated by the global state to engage hostile forces in other regions and cities.

The era of New Feudalism will then ensue from the social and urban-ecological arrangements emerging. The era of ancient Florence, Venice, or city-states with their own respective armies and ruled by powerful commercial families, will come back though in more sophisticated vogue. The competing powerful & wealthy city-states will then give rise to new conflicts in the form of ‘wars of the cities’, much akin to the ancient Greek city-states’ conflicts. Before this century’s end, no more nations shall exist, but rather a world of cities and regions integrated largely through the mediative and regulative planetary state. Weaker cities and regions will become the vassals of powerful cities and corporate groups, at a time when technology will even be more revolutionary. The New Feudalism will be based on an integration of capital and information, contrasted to the Old Feudalism that was based on land.  

As soon as 3rd phase cybernetics will conclude, and probably a 4th phase will begin, which will all the more erase the barrier between human and machine, the envisioned Technotronic Society will become the manifest order. Cyborgs and machines will then become perfected and endowed with quasi-human intelligence, while those humans with weak minds will be totally controlled via perfected chips, mega-computers, and new cybernetic systems. Large numbers of subhuman ‘Manchurian candidates’ or MCs will become the docile slave labor of the day, well fed and provided for, but whose behavior will be totally programmed and re-programmable.

That technoronic society of the neo-feudal capitalist ‘new world order’, or simply Technotronic capitalism, was fitfully described and forecast in the film series Matrix and Terminator. As 3rd phase cybernetics is advancing today in laboratory incubators of the North, cybernetics that will dismantle the barrier between human and machine, the possibility of an early arrival of that dreaded machine-controlled ‘new world order’ has become concrete. The question is no longer ‘will technotronics come’, but rather ‘when will it come’? Matrix and Terminator are no film fantasies but are rather scientific extrapolations based on existing and developing cybernetic principles.

So, fellows out there, would you count yourself among the fanatical supporters of ‘capitalist life-span extension’, or would you rather opt for a new economy & society other than the ‘new world order’ that has been engineered by the global oligarchy? Or, would you rather be silent about the matter, as the ‘silence of the lambs’ means the Keynesian “In the long run, all of us will be dead!” Caput!

Let me now end here. Suffice that I shared my notes about the possible extension of the favorite economy of the pro-capitalists or the most abhorred society by capitalism’s detractors. At least I didn’t fail to show you the possibilities, I being a sociologist and economist who learned from my thinker mentors the craft of social forecasting or ‘futurology’.

Till next writing! Adios! Adieu! Paalam! Farewell! 

[23 August 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila.]

BEIJING OLYMPICS: LAST GAMES, AS WORLD WAR III COMES

September 4, 2008

Erle Frayne Argonza

Good afternoon from Manila!

I’m sure that the euphoria of the recently concluded Beijing Olympics is still with most of us. I have no better wish for now than to see that euphoria last for a longer time, and make everyone anticipate the next games. My own country is hungry for a Gold medal, and I already said my piece about the matter (i.e. sports science can make Olympics gold medalists for us).

This note is a sports forecasting briefer. It’s not about the typical forecasting of the outcomes of specific events and the overall medals that countries can make from out of the aggregate medals—especially gold—accruing from those events. It is about the big possibility that the Beijing Olympics could be the planet’s last, that thereafter no more Olympic games will be in the offing for a long while. That London games for 2012 is a chimera, it will be cancelled most likely as London will sustain damages from the coming conflagration.

World War III is about to break out soon, and I am of the opinion that if this war will happen, it will last for at least thirty (30) years. It will be likened to the 30 Years War in Europe (1618-48), a great war that (a) totally devastated the economies of the contending war parties and (b) redefined territories along boundaries that constituted the modern nations of today (via Treaty of Westphalia). In like vein, this World War III will be concluded with a treaty that will see the disappearance of nations and the finalization of the territorial boundaries of regions-states and city-states that will replace nations-states.  

As war rages across the globe, the possibility of training athletes for the Olympics will be nil. Bankrupt or near-bankrupt states will be needing funds as logistics for its own war participation pursuits, and cannot prioritize athletics or related cultural-leisure engagements that appear to be trifle in a war situation. However, athletes and entertainers will have a great time performing before war-weary combatants during lull moments of violent confrontations.

The nearest to the Olympics games would be, if ever, regional games. These games will be performed by member-countries of regions that would be least affected by the war, or which will not serve as major warfronts. As to which regions these will be, it is not easy to forecast for the moment. The main warfront will be the Iran-Middle East area, where it will start (it is just months’ away from hereon). Other possible affected areas would be (a) North Africa (spill over area of the battles), and (b) Central Asia (former Soviet states will be polarized in their alignment). Europe would most likely see a flooding of migratory waves of Arabs, Iranians, Berbers, Central Asians, and Africans who will escape the war and move by waters and land to reach the ‘promised land’ of totalitarian Europe.

Possibly conflicts in (a) Northeast Asia and (b) between China &Taiwan will be experienced. The ASEAN and Australia-New Zealand may not turn to battle grounds, and can therefore launch friendship missions via international athletics. If South America won’t be a warfront, then perhaps the countries here can hold their own version of international games.

But most likely there will be no global athletics such as the Olympics. Ditto for specific events of world athletics, for example: WBA-WBF-WBC-IBF boxing fights, world basketball, and world soccer.  A dreary, dreadful planet this one will be when the conflagration spreads across the globe, and made dreary many times over by the lack of leisure & sports events that could pep up and lighten up the psyche of crowds.

The return of the Olympics will be contingent upon the cessation of hostilities among war parties. As to when that time will come, no one knows exactly. What is most observable is the trend that no one single world power, since after World War II, was able to win a war outside its boundaries (save for that negligible “war” calisthenics between Argentina & Britain over a non-descript island populated largely by birds and very few homo sapiens). Even today, the USA is losing in Afghanistan and Iraq, so what will make us forecast safely that the USA can win a major war anywhere in the planet…

The war will drag on for many years, taking us across the 2030s till probably 2040. That’s when some sane people, most especially the leaders of that time who will come from today’s generation of infants and school children, will declare an end to hostilities. To instill order at that time, authority will be hyper-centralized in totalitarian state formations representing (a) city-states and (c) region-states that are beholden only to (c) the totalitarian ‘technotronic’ capitalist world-state…That’s when the Olympics can be returned.

Meantime, enjoy your euphoria, and enjoy it to the max. For you will not see an Olympic game again in a very long time.

[28 August 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]   

SOROS MANIPULATING WORLD WAR III START UP VIA GEORGIA

August 28, 2008

Erle Frayne Argonza

Just exactly what is the overall purpose of the recent Georgia-Russia conflict within the broad context of the agenda of the global oligarchy? Does it have to do with the broad war that was hatched that will begin in the Middle East, with the oligarchic proxy vassal-states taking sides in the conflict? Was the conflict a mere acid test case by the same elites to assess the offensive capabilities of Russia at this juncture?

Below is a report from the Executive Intelligence Review which lends credence to the thesis of NATO forces being honed for that larger forthcoming war. George Soros, the bagman for dozens of financier oligarchs of Europe, was identified as a key operator in fomenting the latest conflict in Central Asia that pitted the oligarchic vassal Georgia with Russia.

[18 August 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila. Thanks to the Executive Intelligence Review database news.]

LaRouche Denounces `Obama’s Godfather’ George Soros Behind Attempt To Start World War III in the Caucasus

Aug. 10, 2008 (EIRNS)—This release was issued yesterday by the Lyndon LaRouche Political Action Committee (LPAC).

Lyndon LaRouche today denounced British agent George Soros, for his hand in the ongoing London-led efforts to trigger World War III in the Caucasus. Soros is the financial and political godfather of both Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and the purported Democratic Party Presidential nominee, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). In the late hours of Aug. 7, as President Saakashvili completed a nationwide television address, claiming to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis in the autonomous region of South Ossetia, he in fact ordered Georgian troops to fire on Russian peacekeepers, who were in South Ossetia as part of a United Nations mandated force, that has been there since 1994. President Saakashvili’s actions now threaten to trigger World War III—precisely what the British intend as their response to the collapse of their post-Bretton Woods international financial system.

“If you want a preview of what the United States would be like under a President Obama, just look at Georgia’s recent actions. Georgian President Saakashvili, like Barack Obama, is owned by the same British godfather—George Soros.” LaRouche asked: “Would Soros’ man Obama be another Dick Cheney if he got into office?”

Soros’ own Open Society Institute boasts that it was the backbone of the so-called “Rose Revolution” that swept Saakashvili into power in 2003-2004. As of January 2004, the Soros Open Society Institute, which first set up its office in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, in 1994, began directly bankrolling the Georgian government, as part of a joint program with the United Nations’ UNDP (United Nations Development Program), then headed by Mark Malloch Brown, who is now secretary general of the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Malloch Brown was so close to Soros, during his tenure at the UN, that he lived in an apartment he rented from the hedge fund speculator.

Saakashvili’s reckless provocations, in firing on Russian troops and killing South Ossetian civilians, who are predominantly Russian citizens, drew a strong military response from Russia, which is bound, under its constitution, to defend Russian citizens under attack. The British have been behind the destabilization of the Caucasus region since the collapse of the Soviet Union, funding and arming Chechen rebels, allowing recruitment into the Chechen separatist movements, at mosques in England, and providing safe haven to Russian Mafiya figures, like Boris Berezovsky, who bankrolled anti-Russian separatist and terrorist operations in the Caucasus.

“Now, look at the vast Soros cash flow into Obama,” LaRouche concluded. “Soros is a British agent, under the control of British foreign intelligence and special operations services. He is used by them. His sources of funds, after his initial bankrolling by the Swiss branch of the Rothschild banking interests, are murky, at best. Soros is part of Britain’s new opium war apparatus—and he virtually owns Senator Obama. And now he is fomenting world war provocations against Moscow, at precisely the moment that I am calling on Russia, China, and India to join the United States in creating a new international financial system that would wipe out speculators like Soros altogether.”

 

EU-BRITISH OLIGARCHS PRACTICE WAR VIA VASSAL GEORGIA

August 26, 2008

Erle Frayne Argonza

The ‘peace arena’ is getting to be fuzzier by the day as armed hostilities are escalating worldwide. The latest among these was that brief full-scale hostilities between Georgia and Russia, hostilities that were directly related to South Ossetia.

 

On the level of appearance, it was a conflict among neighbors Georgia and Russia. However, when one reflects on the added facet of Georgia’s application to the NATO as a member-state, the underpinning machinations of the Anglo-European oligarchs will be easily seen.

 

As already elucidated by this analyst, the global oligarchy had already formulated the blueprint for its wars of the future and the mutation of the EU and USA into totalitarian police states in the short run. Global ‘synergistic anarchy’ (synarchy), modeled after the ancient Empire of Rome, is a key strategy of the same oligarchic circles to foment conflicts across the globe, aimed as always to preposition the financier and industrial interests of their respective families and members.

 

It is very clear to this analyst that Georgia’s leaders have chosen to gravitate to the power orbit of the financier oligarchs, and desire to be counted among the NATO member-states. This same military umbrella will be the military arm of a forthcoming North Atlantic Empire comprising of the EU and USA, an empire that is now rapidly shaping before our own eyes.

 

The presence of NATO in Afghanistan and its proxy war versus Russia via the new vassal-state Georgia are among the exercises aimed at honing the military might of the alliance. The encirclement of Russia is being tested at this moment, as well as assessing the firepower capabilities of the revived Russian state whose very own leaders have turned hawkish during the last few years.

 

Below is an article by Helga Zepp-LaRouche, leader of the Shiller Institute, regarding the oligarchic machinations behind the Georgia-Russia conflict.

 

[15 August 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila. Thanks to Executive Intelligence Review database news.]

 

IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL COLLAPSE

British, EU Target Russia With Shooting War in the Caucasus

by Helga Zepp-LaRouche

With the underpinnings of the present world financial system growing shakier by the day, the outbreak of warfare in the Caucasus shows how quickly the current world situation can be thrown out of joint. It also gives us a foretaste of how quickly it could expand into a new general war. Even if no one can precisely predict how much time we have left to address the underlying cause of the growing threat of war—namely, the systemic crisis of the world financial system—the military operations in the Caucasus nevertheless make clear that our brief window of opportunity could close quite suddenly.

“Caucasus War Catches Europe Flat-Footed,” was Spiegel-Online’s headline to its article on Aug. 8 about the escalation of the conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia—a conflict which has taken on the character of a typical proxy war between the United States and Russia. The article’s author, Hans-Jürgen Schlamp, reports from Brussels on the alleged “helplessness” of the European Commission and of the French government, which currently holds the EU Presidency, all of which can do nothing except express their “deep concern.”

Nothing could be further from the truth. Back in February, when the European Union—Great Britain, France, and other nations, supported Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence, it was already perfectly clear that this destabilization would not only affect the Balkan states, but was also giving the green light to every conceivable separatist movement and minority throughout the world. Just as in the Balkan wars leading up to World War I, and also in the 1991-95 Balkan War, this ethnically complicated region is serving as a chessboard for British geopolitical destabilizations, with the ultimate aim of drawing the great world powers into the conflict, and/or preventing any peaceful economic cooperation on the Eurasian continent. And it is certainly no accident that, since Dec. 12, 2007, the chief of the EU’s planning team for Kosovo has been none other than the British diplomat Roy Reeve, a Russia expert, whose previous postings took him to Northern Ireland, Ukraine, Armenia, and Georgia—i.e., precisely those countries which have problems with nationalities and ethnic minorities.

Already on July 15, Ronald D. Asmus of the German Marshall Fund (GMF) wrote that a war between Georgia and Russia was in the offing, and that this could easily ruin relations between Russia and the West. And that was obviously the intention all along. Asmus also chaired a meeting of the GMF earlier this year in Brussels, where five former military general staff members presented an outrageous report proposing that NATO be transformed into a globally operating intervention force which, under certain circumstances, would be permitted to launch a first strike with nuclear weapons.

With its so-called “Rose Revolution,” and its desire to join NATO, Georgia has turned out to be a willing instrument of the Anglo-American strategy for encirclement of Russia. But what induced Georgia to reoccupy South Ossetia at this particular moment, 16 years after the latter declared its independence? The war in the Caucasus is part of a global destabilization effort, coinciding with the arrest of former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, as well as with the destabilizations of Turkey, Pakistan, Sudan, and Zimbabwe, by means of terrorist attacks or sanctions—and we are only mentioning the most prominent of many other similar crisis spots.

Financial Crisis Fuels War Threat

As I already pointed out above, the overall context of these events is the escalating collapse of the global financial system, which has been pulling ever larger chunks of the real economy down into the abyss with it. The Federal Reserve is now committed to using its rediscount facility for making practically unlimited liquidity available to the two de facto insolvent mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae—which together, guarantee $5.3 trillion in U.S. mortgages! Not only does this have enormous hyperinflationary ramifications, but it only plugs one solitary hole in the leaking boat. In the United States, speculators are debating whether it’s 3,000 or 5,000 banks which are bankrupt; eight banks have already officially shut their doors so far this year. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy—or what’s left of it, after years of “outsourcing”—is sinking ever more deeply into depression: the auto sector, the airline industry, the construction sector. More and more states and municipalities are being forced to make draconian cutbacks, such as in California, where 22,000 state employees have been laid off, and another 200,000 are threatened with having pay reduced to the minimum wage.

Meanwhile, some analysts have joined Lyndon LaRouche in the view that the rate of collapse in Europe is going to be even faster. Spain’s collapsing real estate sector is bringing a massive banking crisis in its wake, and similar scenarios are playing out in Great Britain, where the Royal Bank of Scotland has had to write off $12 billion in the aftermath of the government takeover of Northern Rock. The situation in Denmark is equally dismal. The official inflation rate in the EU is hovering above 4%, whereas the real rate of inflation for less well-off wage earners is far greater, because they have to spend the bulk of their income on food, energy, gasoline, housing, etc. And when none other than former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, “Mr. Bubble” himself, starts talking about the crisis of the century—a crisis for which he is personally responsible—then it’s clear that he wants to prepare the world for the great crash immediately ahead.

It wouldn’t be the first time in history that the international financial oligarchy has attempted to keep a worldwide financial and economic crisis under control by fanning the flames of war. And anyone who prepares for war, must first create an enemy image, so that the population can be brought into line.

Vile Attacks on China

That is precisely the intention behind the repulsive China-baiting being emitted by the media and by politicians on the occasion of the Olympic Games. Regardless of whether it’s coming from witting agents of the British Empire faction, or from mindless dumbos on the morning news shows: The irresponsible gossip that has been spread during the run-up to the Olympic Games, has been simply monstrous. Without any regard for the truth, and without a shred of knowledge of China’s history and culture, the wildest assertions have been floated—assertions which could well succeed in poisoning relations with China, and in helping prepare for coming conflicts with China (and with Russia).

Not only were the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games in Beijing wonderfully beautiful and poetically conceived, but they were also a magnificently staged demonstration of the 5,000-year history of this great nation, one which, for a long time, was the world’s leader, and which is now preparing to resume that role sometime in the future. Even though China certainly has its fair share of problems—for example, the poverty of the great majority of its rural population, and also a certain degree of Western materialism which has infected part of its population—what counts is the vector of development, and in China that vector is going upwards—in contrast to what’s happening with the arrogant sophists of the West’s empire faction.

The Chinese government has blocked Internet access to anti-Chinese propaganda emanating from international and British organizations in connection with Tibet and the Uighurs—and it has every right to do so. After all, do the British and American governments allow the Taliban’s tracts or al-Qaeda’s instructions to be circulated around the country? What do destabilization efforts by an enemy power, have to do with democracy and human rights?

The fact that in Europe, a politician who voted for the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, or a representative of the media which, even after the Irish “No” in their referendum, did not run a single pertinent article on an EU treaty which would abolish parliamentary democracy in Europe once and for all, and would establish an oligarchical dictatorship, would now dare to decry a lack of democracy and human rights in China—that is truly the height of Goebbels propaganda! It would have made Goebbels pale with envy. Europe is dominated by a truly terrifying democracy deficit, resulting in an increasingly deep-seated and extremely dangerous cultural pessimism, as expressed in the famous retort, “There’s nothing we can do about it, anyway.” And so, those politicians and journalists who raise a fuss about democracy in China, ought to go out and listen to what the population thinks about the political class and the media—in Germany, for example.

If we are to make use of the fast-closing window of opportunity, which will hopefully remain open long enough for us to prevent the great catastrophe, then we will have to embark on a radically different path. One very promising impulse in that direction, is an article that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote for the current issue of the journal Russia in Global Politics, under the title “Russia and the World in the 21st Century,” which directly reflects the positions of President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Lavrov affirms the obvious fact that the epoch of the past 400-500 years, during which European civilization has dominated the world, is now closing, and that a new vision is therefore required. He rejects not only the idea that the world will gradually adopt Western values, and the theory of “the end of history”—the idea of a global Anglo-American empire—but he also rejects the idea of a “post-American” world without the United States.

The Russian Foreign Minister emphasizes that he absolutely disagrees with the idea that current developments must end in chaos and anarchy. Rather, he believes that a new international political, financial, and economic architecture can be created, one in which Russia must play a major role as an equal partner.

The Anglo-Saxon (i.e., free-trade) model is tottering, Lavrov writes, just as it was in the 1920s, and therefore today, just as then, the model of Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal is called for. China, India, Russia, and Brazil must be integrated into this new reform of our international institutions. On this basis, plans can be made for a common future for the entire Euro-Atlantic region and for the world as a whole, a future in which security and prosperity become truly inseparable, he states.

Two Options

The Western nations today have essentially two options: Either they follow the British line, treating Russia, China, and India as antagonists—which means, for example, using Georgia for anti-Russian operations, fostering separatist tendencies inside China, setting financial locusts against India, and other such things. In which case, the great catastrophe is sure to come.

Or, they can heed the proposal which LaRouche has been making for some time, that a new international financial and economic order, in the tradition of Roosevelt and his New Deal, and Bretton Woods, be put onto the agenda. In such an arrangement, the United States, Russia, China, and India must collaborate as a core grouping, around which other sovereign nations can congregate. And that is essentially what Foreign Minister Lavrov says in his article.

For Europe’s nations, this means that they must extricate themselves from the European Union straitjacket which, for Germany, since Maastricht at the latest, has become a new Versailles Treaty. Europe’s nations can, and certainly should cooperate as a Europe of sovereign republics—which will be vastly more in keeping with the spirit of humanist Europe, than is possible today with an EU bureaucracy which is farther away from Europe’s humanist tradition, than Earth is from a galaxy a couple million light-years distant.

Let us hope that the coincidence of what Greenspan himself has described as the financial system’s crisis of the century, with the realization of how quickly war can break out, will be sufficient to shock responsible people back to reason.

OBSTACLES TO PEACE PACT BETWEEN PHILIPPINE STATE AND MUSLIM REBELS

August 14, 2008

Erle Frayne Argonza

Allahu Akbar!

Here is a news report about the obstacles to peace pact’s signing between the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. The analysis came from a US-based group called the US Institute of Peace.

The involvement of US-based groups in GRP talks with insurgents does attract curiosity of sorts. While I have nothing against internationalizing Philippine insurgencies so as to involve 3rd parties in the talks, involving US-based groups is another thing altogether as it fuels our thesis of Americans’ involvement in the launching of rebel groups here at the behest of the Anglo-American oligarchy.

At any rate, do read for yourself the news below. The same group wasn’t actually allowed to co-facilitate the signing of the peace pact in Malaysia.

Peace be with you!

[05 August 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila. Thanks to yahoo.com database news.]

US Institute of Peace says it had warned government about obstacles to peace pact

 

A group calling itself the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) had been tasked by the US State Department to undertake a project to help expedite a peace agreement between the government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) from 2003 to 2007 and which supports the establishment of an ancestral domain for the Bangsamoro people.

 

However, after undertaking its Philippine Facilitation Project (PFP), the USIP has warned of the obstacles to the inking of a peace agreement between the two parties – the need for constitutional amendments, a case at the Supreme Court, Congress’ disapproval of the agreement and the political weakness and unpopularity of President Arroyo.

USIP is an independent, nonpartisan institution established and funded by the US Congress.

Its goals are to help prevent and resolve violent international conflicts, promote post-conflict stability and development, and increase conflict management capacity, tools, and intellectual capital worldwide.

The US’s special interest in the GRP-MILF peace agreement is meant to prevent international terrorist groups from exploiting the conflict in the Philippines after the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks on the US.

The late MILF chairman Salamat Hashim also personally wrote US President George Bush in 2003 to help resolve the conflict between the government and the Moro people.

The US support for the peace talks with the MILF came during the same period that the MILF, through Salamat, declared that they had renounced terrorism to attain its political ends.

At that time, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said that while the “United States absolutely supports the territorial integrity of the Philippines,…we also recognize that the people of Mindanao have legitimate aspirations and some grievances.”

The US government was unwilling to commit financial and economic assistance to MILF areas until an agreement had been signed. The State Department asked USIP to inform it of significant developments, advise on appropriate government responses and if negotiations were not leading to a satisfactory settlement, recommend an end to US engagement.

In a special report published in February of this year and written by G. Eugene Martin and Astrid Tuminez, a copy of which was obtained by The STAR, USIP said Mrs. Arroyo expended only minimal political capital to move the peace process forward and that the three branches of government “also lack consensus on the outlines of a deal that may be offered to the Moros.”

Martin was the executive director of the PFP while Ramirez served as the project’s senior research associate. Their special report highlighted the USIP activities in the Philippines from 2003 to 2007. The USIP clarified, however, that the views expressed in the report “do not necessarily reflect the views of USIP, which does not advocate specific policy positions.”

USIP tried but failed to be part of the peace negotiations between GRP and MILF as Malaysia, the host of the talks, had not agreed, but the group had produced and disseminated to educators, journalists and politicians a short video on ancestral domain, tracing the history of Moro grievances and articulating how and why an agreement on ancestral domain could effectively address the roots of conflict.

The video was shown during discussions of Moro ancestral domain in Manila universities, at forums in Mindanao and in a briefing with three Philippine senators.

“Efforts to help the parties think creatively of ways to overcome long-standing obstacles on ancestral domain and to initiate dialogue among disparate Moro ethnic groups made USIP a valuable contributor to the peace talks,” the report said.

There are many hindrances, however, and the USIP said resolving conflict in Mindanao is likely to be an extended undertaking even with the best of intentions from all parties.

“As with past agreements, a serious risk exists that the national legislature could scuttle any agreement signed by the government in the implementation phase. The Supreme Court might also declare unconstitutional any deal on ancestral domain that grants Moro significant political authority and control over natural resources,” the report said.

The report also noted that the ability and intent of Mrs. Arroyo, whose term would expire in 2010, to press the peace process to settlement were also uncertain.

If Mrs. Arroyo makes serious compromises with the MILF or forces significant change in the political and economic dominance of Christian migrants over land, resources and political power in Mindanao, the USIP report said “she could rouse a wave of opposition that might endanger her presidency.”

“Nonetheless, if such an agreement were signed and fully implemented, it would unequivocally augment the president’s historical legacy after nearly 10 years at the helm of Philippine politics,” it said.

The USIP report also said the multiple changes in the composition of the GRP negotiating panel had been a challenge and although GRP negotiators were “well-informed, creative and well-intentioned, they are in many ways unable to influence those at the center of political power and public opinion.”

USIP’s PFP ceased in June of 2007 but the group said the peace process in Mindanao was far from concluded.

The USIP implemented its role as facilitator of the peace process through USIP president Richard Solomon, a former ambassador to the Philippines, who assembled a group of other former ambassadors to the Philippines, the chairman of the USIP Board and a retired general.

The term facilitation signified that the US was not assuming a direct, hands-on mediating role in the negotiations. – Aurea Calica/Philstar

RECESSION STAYS, SPIRAL POINTS TO GLOBAL MELTDOWN

June 18, 2008

Erle Frayne Argonza

The recession stays, the downward global economic spiral will continue for an indefinite time. This is the pattern that we can now see across the globe.

Stock markets have been crashing, going through a freefall for couples of months now. In Manila, the Philippine stock market is down at 2,500+ points as of this morning, or 800 points short of its best performance of 3,300+ late last year. The pattern is true in other stock markets as well.

One thing is clear: this is a global meltdown going on, and the spiral’s turn-around towards more positive gains in the succeeding months. Trillions of dollars have already gone down the drain, loses that may never be recovered again.

Many pockets are getting badly hurt, both from the fund-rich hedge funds and portfolio financiers to ordinary middle class investors. Just about two (2) years ago, everything was bullish in world stocks, most especially in Asia. That situation had since evaporated.

Unfortunately, the harbingers of liberal dogma are still banking on liberalization policies that have proved to be so bankrupt they are, in fact, the very cause of this global meltdown shaping up. The ‘virtual economy’ unleashed by liberalization resulted to looting sprees by fund managers and hedge fund operators, the same money that they partly utilize for corporate social responsibility.

Now the oil price hikes and currency market volatilities have compounded the recession. It’s just mid-2008 by the way, and there’s still the bombing of Iran that we all await as the non-surprise ‘surprise attack’ from neo-cons and Zionist fascists, which will guarantee higher prices for oil and better dollar leveraging power. This will come sooner or later.

Forecasting has been made simpler by anarchic events at this moment. There is no end in sight to the recession, oil prices will still move up, and the recession will lead to a deeper meltdown of the liberal financial-monetary system of casino-style looting by financier operators.

Better do some belt-tightening if you haven’t done this yet. Let’s continue to watch the horrible unfolding of events. Madness and unparalleled greed have shattered the financial-monetary system, the ‘virtual economy’ of predatory financiers.

[Writ 12 June 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]

RP’S CESSATION OF ARMED REBELLION HIGHLY VIABLE

May 11, 2008

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

[Writ 07 May 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]

Peace be with you!

On the year of my birth in 1958, my country (Philippines) raged with fiery caldrons of armed hostilities in all islands. The Old Left rebellion was already petering out though, and local millenarian rebellions in other islands were also being check-mated. My father was a young soldier then, and bringing along his experience in Korea plus his scout ranger training, he went about running after rebels and winning accolades. Mind you, my father was even absent on my natality day (July 6), as he was busy running after some armed millenarians in the south.

Well, I was nourished with so many tales of heroism and wars in the islands, beginning with the Americo-Japanese war (it was called ‘World War II’ hmmm), and then the rebellions. In the early ‘60s the Old Left capitulated, and only ‘lost commands’ were the remains of the army divisions and companies of the Hukbong Mapagpalaya ng Bayan or HMB (People’s Liberation Army). We simply called them rebels ‘huks’, a core of which later joined the Maoists to comprise the New Peoples’ Army or NPA.

Then, with the founding of the new Communist Party (Maoist) in 1968 and its armed with New People’s Army in 1969, new rebel offensives turned many idyllic lands into howling war zones. Since then, I never knew of any year in my life when peace prevailed in the islands. There were only short episodes of ceasefires lasting for days to a few weeks at the most. I even visited a rebel camp in Quezon during a ceasefire in 1987, had some photo-ops with the NPAs. Often than not, our history in Manila (signifying the whole of RP) was one of wars.

This is not ‘rumors of wars’ here, remember. Whatever is it that is in the psyche of Filipinos which produces audacious warriors is something else worth studying. General Douglas MacArthur was so amazed at the unbelievable audacity and acumen of Filipinos in warfare that he designated Filipino troops as bridgehead storm troops in his campaigns (World War II, Korea War), much like the ‘Gurka regiment’ of the British Empire. Something in our psyche makes us natural warriors, but hey! this is the era of Information Society, so warriorship must be translated into management acumen, audacity and courage, and not manifest as gun-firing praetorian behavior that belongs to the ancient past.

But surprisingly, in the 1990s, the state was able to prove that ‘cessation of armed hostility’ or COAH was a viable one. First, there was the formal declaration by the social democratic army to cease armed struggle, even as its cadres and troops joined the Cory Aquino regime and surreptitiously comprised the ‘yellow army’.

Then, after a series of failed mutinies and coup attempts, the Reform the Armed Forces-Young Officers’ Union-Soldiers of the Filipino People or RAM-YOU-SFP, was finally settled as the coalition signed a negotiated peace settlement with the Ramos regime. Imagine this surprising development, from a rebel force that bombed Manila and the army camp to smithereens a few years back! I saw with my own eyes the barbarity and economic paralysis induced by actual wars in Manila, with my own eyes! I thought then that war was only for the rural backwoods.  I couldn’t believe the rebels would join the mainstream, but they did!

Finally, there was the negotiated settlement with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and its armed wing, the Bangsamoro Army (BMA), also during the Ramos regime. Nur Misuari, head of MNLF, his cadres and troops joined the mainstream. Misuari became governor-elect of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao or ARMM, while 7,000 BMA troops were integrated into both the national police and army. To think that this group once almost won over the war in Mindanao in 1973!

Today we still have the CPP-NPA insurgency and the MILF-BiAF insurgency (Moro Islamic Liberation Front-Bangsamoro Islaic Armed Forces) to deal with. Talks get stalled every now and then. But chances are that they will be negotiated, based on a win-win formula. What more can make me and my cohorts, and now the younger generations, happier when this happens? I’m sure I’d weep so much with happiness and euphoria when this happens. Finally here we are, respecting each other as brothers and sisters, and decide to ‘communicate, cooperate and collaborate’ (3 Cs) rather than shoot down each other.

An array of methods and strategies were explored no less from many sides to finally make rebels and state sit down together. To name some: face-to-face talk between officially negotiated parties; back-channel talks to reinforce confidence-building; mediation by 3rd parties (friendly states); peace consultants comprising of international law and development experts on both sides; civil society and church support, aside from their role in monitoring the conduct of hostilities and short ceasefires; periodic peace rallies via prayer, concerts, parades, special events by citizens, church, NGOs; peace advocacy by teachers/educators in schools; peace zones declared by all parties in specially designated towns; initiatives by local government units & players at confidence-building; and, mandating rebels sometimes to help in anti-drug and anti-Islamic terrorist campaigns (boosting mutual confidence).

Exasperated to the extremes now after four (4) decades of war, I am so impatient for peace, for a true cessation of armed hostility. I wish that at least one insurgency can be concluded soon before 2010 (presidential election). Maybe the next exec will pick up the task and conclude the remaining insurgency. The next decade can then witness the fruition of a 7-decade campaign to bring RP to developed country status, which I now opine can happen only if the two (2) insurgencies can be concluded.

For our dream of peace in RP, carpe diem! We shall overcome!

  

MANILA PEACE UPDATE: BACK-CHANNEL TALK WITH MAOIST REBELS

May 10, 2008

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

[Writ 01 May 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila. The author, a professor at the premier University of the Philippines, was a former consultant and senior official at the presidential palace.]

 

Let me share to you some notes about the efficacy of the back-channel strategy as applied to the Peace Talks. By Peace Talks I refer to the on-going negotiations between the GRP (Government of the Republic of the Philippines) and the rebel groups (National Democratic Front, Moro Islamic Liberation Front). For this briefer, I will focus on the GRP-NDF talks, the NDF being the Maoist movement led by the clandestine Communist Party of the Philippines (founded 1968).

 

The Maoist rebellion here began as soon as the New People’s Army or NPA, the military arm of the CPP, was formed. The Philippines than was predominantly agrarian, landlordism was the main stumbling block to industrial progress, the 1948-launced Import Substitution Industrialization was floundering badly, and mass poverty must have been reaching as much as past the 75% mark. With an agrarian population as base, it wasn’t difficult for the CPP-NPA to justify an armed struggle based on the Maoist strategy of encirclement: build rebel based first in the hinterlands where the enemy forces are weak, then gradually constrict the urban areas (cities, big towns) from the countryside.

 

Almost four (4) decades after the launching of the Maoist rebellion, nowhere is there any site of a victory by the Left rebels. Supposedly, the guerilla fronts have reached past the 3-digit level (160+ as of latest claims by the CPP), but those are largely spread out in rural hinterlands. RP’s population is now around 60% urban and only 40% rural, and urbanization is still spreading fast, mutating the rural landscapes into new mixed-use urban and suburban mini-cities.

 

It is now getting clearer that the Maoist rebellion here has been reduced to a Zapatista-sized rebellion, and its strategy of encirclement has become obviously intractable and nauseatingly archaic. Unless that it shifts in strategy from rural-based armed struggle to urban-based mass movement type, the new Zapatistas of Manila (CPP-NDF) may lose enormous mileage in their campaigns and legitimacy. A rising middle class here will never be able to identify with a movement that tends to diminish the importance of the ‘middle sectors’ in shaping the political wind, most specially in Asia to which Manila is now closely hued to (for many centuries the Philippines was alien to Asia and was more hued to its colonial masters in the West).

 

Often than not, the Peace Talks get stalled. This has been the history of negotiations here. But at least what is clear, as has been shown by the past negotiations with the military rebels and the Moro National Liberation Front or MNLF, is that the GRP talking point is not “surrender all of you or die!” but rather one of negotiated political settlement. It took much time for the GRP to admit to this new precept in peace talks, but state negotiators have to rather take this option as it had proved relatively successful as exemplified by the previous cases.

 

One strategy used by the GRP whenever peace talks get stalled is the ‘back-channel talk’. Often than not, the names of back-channel negotiators are not identified at all in public, or that the information is strictly confidential. Having once moved in the corridors of power as a consultant and later a senior state official at the presidential palace, my very own boss then was among them, and his experiences in the BCT (shortened ‘back-channel talk’) are my basis for assessing the efficacy of the strategy.

I found out, to my own dismay being a patriot who was impatient for results, that the peace talks get stalled every now and then not because of ‘insincerity’ of the ‘other party’ but rather due to the lack of trust by the rebels in the GRP negotiating panel’s composition. One must realize that here in Manila, the ‘nat-dems’ (the Maoist national democrats) had that historical animosities and antipathies with the ‘soc-dems’ (non-Maoist social democrats) who were indeed rabidly anti-communist as any observer would notice. Sadly, before the incumbent president GM Arroyo sat in power, the ‘soc-dems’ were already visible and influential in shaping the contours of peace talks including those held with the Muslim rebels.

 

In 2004, barely had the presidential election campaign commence when the peace talk stalled again. The usual bitter reason raised, as per information coming straight from the rebels to their contacts in the GRP other than the peace panel, was the ‘soc-dem’ presence in that (peace) panel (notably the intelligence top-gun Norberto Gonzales, and another ‘soc-dem’ cabinet member Ging Deles). Before that, in the 1990s, there was the complaint against the ‘opus dei’ negotiators. You see, the NDF can never really trust these negotiators who hinge their loyalty to their Vatican-led spin doctors.

 

The ‘nat-dem’ line is that the ‘soc-dem’ and their predecessors the ‘opus dei’ are clerico-fascist, are rabidly anti-communist and will never trust communists or Marxists of whatever rainbow hue they possess. The cleric-fascists supposedly opt for a total destruction of anything Marxist, much more of Maoists, and cannot be trusted in any way in peace negotiations. Of course, in the open mass media the typical line of the Maoists is that GRP is insincere, a line that the MILF rebels likewise echo.

 

That’s why it pays for any incoming president in particular to review the composition of the peace group that s/he inherits from a previous president. Well, the fact is that all the presidents from Corazon Aquino through Gloria Arroyo owe their victories in one way or another to the support of the ‘Jesuit mafia’ (to whom the ‘soc-dems’ owe allegiance) and the ‘opus dei’ (RP’s version of generalissimo Franco’s phalangists). So nary a president can just consign church players to roach-ridden dust bins, rest assured.  

 

A remedial measure adopted by a president here, which the incumbent particularly and that of the flamboyant Fidel Ramos found efficacious, was the use of BCT negotiators. And the result was even more stunningly successful whenever a BCT negotiator was a former comrade of the Left. Many senior-level officials since the 1990s yet, the rank going to as high as cabinet level, were former ‘nat-dems’ including dozens of former CPP cadres no less. They may have left the underground, but they were still in good faith with their former movements which they never antagonized in any way.

 

As the presidential poll got nearer in 2004, the BCT negotiator then, who is personally known to this writer, got himself busy moving in and out of the country to see the NDF officials face-to-face. There was this particular official session between the NDF and GRP, which the BCT negotiator witnessed, and to the shock of the attendants the NDF officials pulled out pronto even before the session even started. But the rebel officials never left the venue, they simply cuddled at a particular nook and discussed their moves right there.

 

As usual, among the GRP panelists were around three (3) ‘soc-dems’ and one ‘opus dei’, and so the knee-jerk Pavlovian response of the rebels was to back off, as if they perceive some hostile man-eating Martians across the bargaining table. Seeing the urgency of a mediation response, the BCT official immediately admonished the GRP panelists to stay and wait while he moves on to massage the rebel side. He then went over to his former comrades, muscled enough courage and confidence to deal witRih them, and pronounced his lines that fruitful things can come out of the session if only the rebels returned to the table.

 

Well, voila! The rebel officials did return to the table, though without a hint of trust shown to the GRP panelists. The panel wasn’t exactly an entirely ‘socdem’-‘opus dei’ tandem, as the BCT official had pointed to the rebels, and so it was a matter of competent communication of their positions that would matter the most at that historic moment.

 

I was myself very busy then with the presidential campaign, being a consultant and spokesman for the incumbent exec who was running for another 6-year stint when the talks resumed. And I was so exuberantly elated at the rebels’ return to the table. The BCT negotiator, being my direct boss in the campaign (he was also among the top coordinators for the ‘parallel campaign machinery’ of GM Arroyo), then narrated the series of events which never came out of the news.

 

Not only did the rebels return to the ‘nego’ table (nego = negotiations, negotiating) as a result of the success of confidence-building spawned thru the BCT strategy. A week before the presidential poll, the top rebel honcho Jose Maria Sison officially announced that the NDF was supporting the GMA-led team in the elections. ‘Joma’ (as Sison was fondly nick-named) even released a formal memorandum to all CPP cadres and members, to openly vote for Arroyo in her presidential bid.

 

We now have new faces among the GRP panelists here, and the political winds have quite changed since 2004. The GRP-NDF war had resumed, peace talks continue but without verve and mutual trust. But BCT had more than amply proved to be a worthwhile strategy for peace negotiations. We should all look forward to its further application in many cases of conflict resolution—from rebellion-related to labor-related conflicts (settling strikes, lock-outs, barricades).

FIND LIGHT & PEACE IN BRO. ERLE ARGONZA’S BLOGS

May 8, 2008

FIND LIGHT & PEACE IN BRO. ERLE ARGONZA’S BLOGS

Gracious Day to all friends, partners in development, fellows in the Path!

 

You’re all invited to relish moments of Light-seeking reflections, call to relevant actions and self-development thoughts with me, through my blogs:

 

Development, Economics, Better World: https://unladtau.wordpress.com

 

Seekers’ Lessons, Freethought, Yoga, Self-Development:

 http://erleargonza.blogspot.com, http://raefdargon.mysticblogs.com

 

Poetry for Inspirational Living: http://erleargonza.wordpress.com

 

Happy Reading!

 

Bro. Erle Frayne Argonza / Guru Ra Efdargon

FOOD WARS ARE COMING, PREPARE!

May 4, 2008

Bro. Erle Frayne D. Argonza

[Writ 04 May 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]

Food wars are coming, prepare for the contingencies! This is now a visible possibility, so all those enthused development stakeholders and peace-builders better insert an extra agendum on their ‘key result areas’.

Given the so many sources of conflict that are natural resources related, the latest ones being the ‘water wars’, it is no longer a remote possibility that food wars will erupt in some ‘hot soup spots’ in the world. Such hot spots are not those ones the world knows today (e.g. Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula, Taiwan-China strait) that can be potential starting points for great wars. But somehow, the areas and the food wars coming can ‘cross-cut’ the issues involving conflicts in the hot spots we know.

The scenario would be as follows:

·         A convergence of volatilities in the global market would, at one conjuncture, lead to simultaneous price increases in food, oil/energy, metals, utilities. Hoarding then takes place at alarmingly uncontrollable levels. Shockingly, the old ‘policy tools’ to control prices and hoarding won’t work.

 

·         Massive urban riots and upheavals in the affected rural areas take place. New militia groups will rise almost overnight, challenging both national armies and established warlord and rebel groups where these are found.

 

·         Noticing that their own food, energy, base metal stocks are near or pass the critical points, affected states will then turn blind eye to the militias. Tying up with underworld for arms and information, the militias would then conduct quick eco-scan of neighboring countries that are relatively porous for food ransack operations. Key areas would be mapped out as professionally as possible.

 

·         Noticing their own relative porosity, the panic response of affected food supplier states would be to plug their borders as quickly as they can before hothead militias come. They may do panic last-level talks with the state leaders of neighboring countries, who in turn will simply claim that they do not control warlord/militia groups at all. They may send token protection groups at the border.

 

·         Anticipating such moves, the militias, forming cross-country alliances, will mount a coordinated surprise attack. Invasive entries will be done from around 5-6 country origins, using both dawn and dusk attacks. Simultaneous attacks via air, sea, land, rivers & lakes will be mounted on all fronts.

 

·         Effectively unable to prevent the coordinated invasion, the national army/police of the affected state will watch in horror as the rapid moving invaders coalesce with internal players (‘dog of wars’ supplied by local mafia or related groups) to open and ransack warehouses.

 

·         The invaders will then retreat back to their base origins as quick as they’ve entered the porous state. Hot pursuit is simply nil, save for a few sporadic gunfights with retreating forces.

 

·         The affected state will then demand for indemnification or equivalent payment from the militias’ respective states, none of which may come at all. Given the already burgeoning subsidies by states to shore up domestic supplies and prevent further civil unrest due to the crisis, the states will simply have no resource for indemnification. To print more money for indemnification would be to risk hyper-inflation on top of an already inflationary environment.

 

·         With hardly any sincere face-saving moves by the militias’ states, the affected state may then be provoked into a ‘call to arms’ and do some punitive attacks on some quick neighbors. It can also unleash the firepower of rebel groups from the ransacking countries that are based in its territory, arm these groups and make them lead punitive attacks.

 

·         Unless cooler heads prevail in the region, a regional conflagration could ensue, hence widening the latitudes of the conflict. The original ‘hot soup’ for the stomach then turns to a ‘hot caldron’ of total war. Multilateral efforts may fail for a time, as the conflicts happen in at least three (3) world regions.

 

Partners in development and peace, this scenario can no longer be ignored today. Let us all prepare for the eventuality. If it can be stopped by cutting off the bud before it blooms, whatever that may take, then let’s better do it as soon as we can. Time is now against us, I believe, as events are moving so fast they happen as soon as we forecast them, like the formation of the food cartels.

If there would still be time to constitute strategic studies teams that can eco-scan the planet and identify possible ‘hot soup spots’, this would be a welcome move. Failing to recognize the evolving contingency, let’s not get shocked at all when the paramilitary ‘dogs of war’ will be at the gates of the bereaved states. They deserve some ‘hot soup’ after all, we may surmise.