STOCK MARKETS SHIVER AS PAN-ARABIA BROILS

STOCK MARKETS SHIVER AS PAN-ARABIA BROILS

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Pan-Arabia, the whole region comprised of Arab ethnicities and state, is broiling in hot embers of social turmoil. As the turmoil escalates, with civil war as the maximum broiler exemplified by Libya, stock markets tumble and shiver.

We thought the new phenomenon of stock markets insulating themselves from political-military hot fires is the order of the day. It seems this isn’t so, as we see the diverse stock markets shiver and grope for better light with the advent of the Arabian broil.

The Philippine stock exchange, which hit the highest level of 4,400+ points late last year, had since been tumbling down, hitting a low level of 3,700+ points since the Arab broils began with the Tunisian crisis. The previous forecasts of the same stock market breaching the 4,800+ points is mere delusional, it is good material for banters and guffaws.

Sure, the Asian growth wave has been helping to jettison stock markets in Asia to better levels, I have no problem accepting this development. I already wrote notes about the matter and published them recently. But there are X factors that can affect stock markets, inclusive of a possible World War III that will pit the Sunni-Zionist alliance versus the Iran-led Shiite coalition.

To my own amazement, the Arab internal turmoil came, thus brushing aside the probability of a global war. Amazement, as I find myself in league with the pro-democracy younger generations of Arabs. Instead, the turmoil by itself has been affecting financial and capital markets in large measures, and so this for us is the X Factor worth observing.

We were all witness to how a political event—the Red Shirts mass upheaval in Thailand—brought down the Bangkok stock markets to pathetic lows last year. That political event was just confined to Thailand by the way, yet the stock markets of contiguous economies did quiver badly while the turmoil was unfolding.

In Pan-Arabia, the turmoil is region-wide, with Tunisia and Egypt showing the way to ‘regime change’ via people power upheaval or revolution. There is not a single political movement orchestrating the turbulence by the way, and let there be no mistake that the turmoil isn’t susceptible to manipulation by any one political or imperialistic force.

A turbulence so gigantic as to embroil an entire region comprising of almost two (2) dozen states is just too mind boggling for various quarters. Financial and stock analysts could be at a lost at the moment for answers to the puzzles raised by the pan-Arabian turmoil, just as political analysts are at a lost for their equivalence of efficacious tools and forecasts.

So the question that can be raised from the unfolding events in pan-Arabia is: will the turmoil make or brake global stocks altogether? If in case the stock markets will plunge anew from this juncture, will the end of the pan-Arabian crisis put an end to the plunge and bring back the stock markets to new bullish rounds? Or, will the stock markets see the end of them all, and lead to the de-institutionalization of centuries of stock trading?

I am of the opinion that stock markets should be abolished altogether, and forecast many years past that stock markets will crash down to never land in the foreseeable future. That crashing down began in 2007, and a much bigger crash will happen sooner or later. The result of that crash will see the greater justification for abolishing the dirty gambling game of stock trading, and lead to alternative capitalization of enterprises other than stock trading.

So let’s all watch out closely for the unfolding events, and see how they dovetail into the stock trading trends. If ever stock markets will show semblance of growth, this will be only tentative till the last month of 2012 if ever. Stock markets will have no future beyond 2012, rest assured.

[Philippines, 09 March 2011]

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ARAB SHEIKHS BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!

ARAB SHEIKHS BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

The month of March just commenced as I write this note. It seems that, as of this writing, the ancient echoes of history are reminding the archaic royal states of pan-Arabia of the cryptic message “beware the Ides of March!”

The tumult of pan-Arabia (all territories covered by Arabs of diverse ethnicities) is clearly sweeping the dirt of the ancien regime, regardless of the nature of the states there: republic or archaic (monarchic). The rousing of awareness affects the young generation in particular, no matter what class, ethnicity, or sect they belong to.

So rapid are the unfolding events, and without the proper framework to comprehend what’s going on, the despots and autocrats of pan-Arabia are at a lost as to the proper comprehension of the phenomenon. In the absence of an appropriate framework, the royal rulers have to undertake a drastic palliative of giving respective families some large alms of welfare gifts.

Almost nine (9) quarters of a century ago, the last queen of France, Marie Antoinette, provided the same palliative: by giving cakes to the poor folks in order to deter their involvement in popular risings. Welfare gifts of today are similar to the cakes of Marie Antoinette. Let the sheikhs be reminded that Marie Antoinette and King Louis XVII were beheaded before the public, an event that foreshadowed what would happen to the various other archaic regimes across the globe, no matter if they gave away tons of cakes in case.

While the overthrown Saudi king and/or Arab sheikhs may not be physically decapitated after their removal from power, the fate of the late French monarchs signifies the decapitation of the monarchic power altogether. Which means that, in the short run, all the remaining archaic states in pan-Arabia will be effectively decapitated, and conditions made so hard for a revival of the ancien regime.

If asked for an honest opinion, my perspective on the matter makes me supportive of a republican form (structure) of government for all Arab states. Archaic regimes in pan-Arabia have been integrated into the power nexus of the Anglo-European oligarchy that has been planning to wage a World War III very soon by pitting a Sunni-Jewish alliance versus a Persia/Iran-led coalition.

Saudi Arabia has particularly been arming itself to the hilt, while Syria and Libya have already stockpiled themselves with the arsenals. All done in preparation for the great war. Israel has been undertaking massive military exercises inside Romania, as it will be the core force tasked by the financier oligarchy to frontally attack Iran in the months ahead.

But the political-military context in pan-Arabia had so suddenly changed as a result of the turmoil. All of a sudden, the viability of launching a world war versus Iran has badly eroded. The primary problems of pan-Arabia today are the domestic ones, and so the global war has to be put in abeyance if not shelved altogether.

As I already cogitated in my earlier articles, it will be suicidal for Israel to go to war alone versus Iran & allies (Hezbollah, Hamas, contiguous countries). Not only that, with the changed context in Arab states, Israel has to re-tool itself to be able to understand the rapidly unfolding events and forecast whether the future Arab regimes will be reliable friends or unpredictable enemies.

Meanwhile, the month of March had arrived, and this month bodes ill for the despots and autocrats of pan-Arabia. Beware the Ides of March!

[Philippines, 01 March 2011]

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ARAB REPUBLICS’ PERMANENT PRESIDENTS

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

Good day to you fellow global citizens!

 

Political turbulence is manifestly the most featured template of the day for Arab republics. The bone of contention by polarized forces is whether to extend incumbent presidents’ terms. So let me share some reflective notes about the intriguing subject.

 

As a keen observer of political economic events, I can verily see that Arab republics have the penchant for electing presidents who would be chief execs for life. In the Vatican they do the same: elect a Pope for life. Albeit, the Vatican is no republic but a theocracy that has evolved its own structures, processes and culture through time, and so the Vatican’s chief exec can sit prettily for life unhampered by possible protests that would see His Holiness’ overthrow.

 

Republics are modern forms of states, and Arab republics chose democratic governance as the process for choosing leaders and/or policy-makers. Expectedly, republics must show exemplary behavior by changing national leaders periodically and give way to others who are perceived as responsible and capable of meeting the job expectations of a chief exec.

 

Even the Peoples Republic of China follows the norms of governance for choosing leaders. True, the Communist Party has a monopoly of governance in the rising star of Asia, but Chinese do choose the leaders from among qualified Communist cadres. Since after Deng Shao Ping, no one has ever become president or prime minister for life, so nobody can ever satirically remark a “Pope Hu Jintao” to denigrate China’s very capable president.

 

Unfortunately, the Arab presidencies haven’t been complying with the accepted norms of republican leadership. Take the case of Iraq that was for a long time governed by “Pope Saddam” as chief exec. “Pope Saddam” seems to be the model of the presidents of Syria, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Sudan, Syria, and other Arab states that traversed the republican trajectory of statehood.

 

Had it been clearly stipulated in the charters of the republican states that their respective presidents will be chief execs for life, the constituents will not begrudge the nation’s echelon whatsoever. But that isn’t the case, as charters do clearly stipulate the fixed terms for chief execs, and that is where tensions can arise in the course of tenures of over-staying presidents.

 

Grand deceptions can indeed be cooked and cooked well so as to be digested by obedient herds of constituents, as the Arab presidencies have perpetually flaunted on their folks. But no one can fool all the people all the time, and sooner or later there will be outbursts of detractions coming from a diversity of oppositionist forces.

 

The Arab republics’ Permanent President (with capital letters to stress the point) had already come full circle, and can no longer be recycled in an unending vicious circle. The phenomenon of ‘rising expectations’ has finally caught up with the system of national governance of perpetuity, thus causing huge explosions of public outrage across the said states.

 

‘Regime change’ is now the most urgent task falling upon the shoulders of responsible constituents. Relentless protests are waged, akin to the protests waged versus military dictatorships in developing states in Latin America and Asia in the 1980s and ‘90s.

 

Portugal’s parallel overthrow of its long-term dictatorship took place much earlier in the 1970s. Dubbed as the ‘velvet revolution’, it was followed a bit later by the Philippine ‘people power’ revolution that overthrew the dictator Marcos. The same phenomenon of massive, relentless protests marked the political landscape in these countries and others that was capped by the overthrow of the existing permanent presidents.

 

Arabs are latecomers in the matter of people empowerment, but it is “better late than never.” The die has been cast on the side of people power, and so one by one shall the permanent presidents be taken down. Arab republics’ constituencies are showing courage and audacity in fomenting change, risking lives and limbs to achieve the goal of reforms, and they are inspired by the recent precedents of Tunisia and Egypt.

 

The momentum of change through people power has already picked up. Arab presidents should better heed the demands for their graceful exits now, or else they face the option of a full-scale civil war of which no one will be winner in the long-run.

 

[Philippines, 18 February 2011]

 

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