US WATCH: IT’S THE ECONOMY!

Erle Frayne  Argonza

The US presidential polls are approaching. The Democrat Party nomination was recently concluded, and there goes the polls.

As an observer of ‘US reality’, I’d candidly say that if there’s anything most worrisome in the US right now, it’s the economy. Without the pejorative ‘stupid’ by the way, I leave that to Bill Clinton’s spin doctors.

Whoever wins, and whoever would be vice president, this tandem of statesmen (hopefully) will have to go about moving heaven and earth to salve the ailing economy. The ailment is not just a structural one that will be resolved with some palliatives.

First of all is the recession. There is no more denying about this fact. The more that the fed and monetary officials would deny information, the greater the amount of suspicion, the greater the legitimacy question. It was good that finally, there was the admission about the sad state of the economy.

Now, folks, most especially you American voters out there, the recession may not be the end of the downspin yet. Watch out, for the recession could well slide into depression. A 6-quarter period of sustained depression (which means a contraction below the established average, or below zero growth) could be the final blow to the long-drawn drift towards the total collapse of the once-mighty US economy.

Look at the signs of the times, Joe! After World War II, the US produced 40% of the Gross World Product or GWP. It’s now down to 22%. The EU, by integrating their economies, produce a similar aggregate of 22% of GWP. The trend is still of a downward drift, including the EU’s, over the years, not an upward lift.

As to what has been causing the downward drift, let’s take those matters slowly in quite chewable fashion. For now, it’s clear to this observer that “it’s the economy” and not the war or parochial sectoral matters such as immigration, gender, more autonomy for states and cities, and so on.

[Writ 05 June 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila] 

OBAMA’S DEMOCRAT VICTORY LAUDED

Erle Frayne  Argonza

Good morning from Manila!

Senator Obama of the USA finally had his victorious moment recently as he clipped the Democratic electoral primaries’ trophy. He is the Man of the hour in America, the most competent choice to beat the Republicans who must better take the backseat of power.

Being a Filipino patriot and analyst who’s been keenly observing economic, political and cultural events in the USA, I’ve arrived at a conclusion way back in the 1980s yet that I have no sympathy whatsoever for the conservatives of the USA. In both their handling of domestic and foreign affairs of America, they always ended up bungling America’s domestic economy and the USA’s image overseas, and drag down the world into the rut that they create.

The impact of Republican governance to Philippine reality has been so strong and so damaging to say the least. As a colony then of the USA, it has always been Republican policy initiatives that held sway in the colonial government here, initiatives that ensured eventually the power of oligarchic families who have since taken over power after America left in 1946.

Then, after World War II, there came President Truman, another boorish conservative, who implemented wholesale the desires of the Military-Industrial elite to divide the world along the Reds versus Capitalist dichotomy. That act, which bred the Cold War, got us mired into the cul de sac, a tragedy that we continue to suffer from as our local military has been residing in that quagmire and its death squads have been violating human rights so abusively.

Then came Reagan who, alongside her Conservative ally Thatcher of the UK, executed to the letter the financier oligarchs’ wish to liberalize domestic economies. The policies of liberalization, deregulation, privatization, tax reforms, liberalized foreign exchange rate, decentralization and hosts of austerity measures, imposed by the IMF-World Bank group, are the causes of our poverty and developmental delays. Those policies began with Reaganomics, just to remind everyone else.

The latest ‘neo-conservative’ Republican hawkish resurgence, which seems like a reincarnation of the Truman ‘cold war’ doctrine, forced us Filipinos to re-align back to US impositions in foreign policy. This is a total reversal of our independence in foreign policy that we patriots fought for with so much blood and pains. And so many lives we lost overseas due to this kowtowing to conservative-oligarchic dictates of the Military-Industrial elites of America.

It is now time to call for a break from the military-financial madness spawned by the hawkish Republicans. And this can be best done by first of all supporting any party in America other than Republicans.

The victory of Obama in the primaries could be the start of the reform movement in America long waited for not only by Americans but also but other peoples of the planet. Kudos to Senator Obama and his campaign team for a job well done!

[Writ 05 June 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]