BEIJING OLYMPICS: LAST GAMES, AS WORLD WAR III COMES

Erle Frayne Argonza

Good afternoon from Manila!

I’m sure that the euphoria of the recently concluded Beijing Olympics is still with most of us. I have no better wish for now than to see that euphoria last for a longer time, and make everyone anticipate the next games. My own country is hungry for a Gold medal, and I already said my piece about the matter (i.e. sports science can make Olympics gold medalists for us).

This note is a sports forecasting briefer. It’s not about the typical forecasting of the outcomes of specific events and the overall medals that countries can make from out of the aggregate medals—especially gold—accruing from those events. It is about the big possibility that the Beijing Olympics could be the planet’s last, that thereafter no more Olympic games will be in the offing for a long while. That London games for 2012 is a chimera, it will be cancelled most likely as London will sustain damages from the coming conflagration.

World War III is about to break out soon, and I am of the opinion that if this war will happen, it will last for at least thirty (30) years. It will be likened to the 30 Years War in Europe (1618-48), a great war that (a) totally devastated the economies of the contending war parties and (b) redefined territories along boundaries that constituted the modern nations of today (via Treaty of Westphalia). In like vein, this World War III will be concluded with a treaty that will see the disappearance of nations and the finalization of the territorial boundaries of regions-states and city-states that will replace nations-states.  

As war rages across the globe, the possibility of training athletes for the Olympics will be nil. Bankrupt or near-bankrupt states will be needing funds as logistics for its own war participation pursuits, and cannot prioritize athletics or related cultural-leisure engagements that appear to be trifle in a war situation. However, athletes and entertainers will have a great time performing before war-weary combatants during lull moments of violent confrontations.

The nearest to the Olympics games would be, if ever, regional games. These games will be performed by member-countries of regions that would be least affected by the war, or which will not serve as major warfronts. As to which regions these will be, it is not easy to forecast for the moment. The main warfront will be the Iran-Middle East area, where it will start (it is just months’ away from hereon). Other possible affected areas would be (a) North Africa (spill over area of the battles), and (b) Central Asia (former Soviet states will be polarized in their alignment). Europe would most likely see a flooding of migratory waves of Arabs, Iranians, Berbers, Central Asians, and Africans who will escape the war and move by waters and land to reach the ‘promised land’ of totalitarian Europe.

Possibly conflicts in (a) Northeast Asia and (b) between China &Taiwan will be experienced. The ASEAN and Australia-New Zealand may not turn to battle grounds, and can therefore launch friendship missions via international athletics. If South America won’t be a warfront, then perhaps the countries here can hold their own version of international games.

But most likely there will be no global athletics such as the Olympics. Ditto for specific events of world athletics, for example: WBA-WBF-WBC-IBF boxing fights, world basketball, and world soccer.  A dreary, dreadful planet this one will be when the conflagration spreads across the globe, and made dreary many times over by the lack of leisure & sports events that could pep up and lighten up the psyche of crowds.

The return of the Olympics will be contingent upon the cessation of hostilities among war parties. As to when that time will come, no one knows exactly. What is most observable is the trend that no one single world power, since after World War II, was able to win a war outside its boundaries (save for that negligible “war” calisthenics between Argentina & Britain over a non-descript island populated largely by birds and very few homo sapiens). Even today, the USA is losing in Afghanistan and Iraq, so what will make us forecast safely that the USA can win a major war anywhere in the planet…

The war will drag on for many years, taking us across the 2030s till probably 2040. That’s when some sane people, most especially the leaders of that time who will come from today’s generation of infants and school children, will declare an end to hostilities. To instill order at that time, authority will be hyper-centralized in totalitarian state formations representing (a) city-states and (c) region-states that are beholden only to (c) the totalitarian ‘technotronic’ capitalist world-state…That’s when the Olympics can be returned.

Meantime, enjoy your euphoria, and enjoy it to the max. For you will not see an Olympic game again in a very long time.

[28 August 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]   

A NEW GLOBAL FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE IS MOST EXIGENT

 

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

[Writ 23 March 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]

 

From the early 1970s through the 1990s, the massive liberalization of the international financial system was executed with such dynamism, radically altering thus the international financial landscape. Look at the result of this gargantuan liberalization today: global economic catastrophe.

 

New Nationalism, in collaboration with old nationalists, socialists, and ideologies that articulate the interests of marginal sectors, argues for the immediate reform of the international financial system. It had to be admitted by everyone else that the system failed, it simply cannot be sustained under a regime of liberal capital, monetary and related financial policy regimes.

 

Both the USA and EU economies today are particularly affected by the failure of financial liberalization. The ‘virtual economy’ had taken over their respective domains, they were so badly de-industrialized notably the USA’s that there may no more be a semblance of once flourishing industrial economies there, their infrastructures are rotting and collapsing, and now the final death blow to their economic wellness had come as recession ravages like uncontrolled forest fire there.

 

On the international level, the problem can be addressed by convening at once the legitimate delegates of states, with market and civil society groups serving as observers. The task is to immediately reform the rotten international financial system, and concur a new global financial architecture. A ‘New Breton Woods’ would be apt as a label for this effort (to borrow from the economist Lyndon LaRouche).

 

The most urgent agenda is the re-examination of national currencies, return of the gold reserve standard or equivalent, institution of better regulatory mechanisms both of cross-border and  national levels, immediate economic recovery by provision of long-term low-interest rated financial instruments or ‘white knight’ finance, and clipping the predatory powers of greedy financiers such as hedge funds and ‘vulture funds’ operators.

 

A special topic would be the stock markets of each nation or region. It is now time to reform the stock markets, which have been used by greedy elements to loot national coffers and the public of direly needed financial resources. If the stock markets can’t be reformed, then the option for them is to face increasing ‘guerilla finance’ by groups that will seek to establish direct links between the market players who seek new capital funds and the potential investors from among the general public. In which case, if the latter succeeds, the stock market is out to die a painful dinosaur’s death, ditto for all those predatory stock traders whose role will become extinct overnight.   

 

The fundamental contention for the reform package, culled from the New Nationalism article, is reflected below.

 

Reform the international financial system.

 

The global financial system is indubitably a homestead of predatory financiers. Usury and global speculation, the masterpieces of financiers, are the enemies of nations. Usury in international finance is at an all-time high, raising questions about the legality and moral propriety of   current lending practices. Incidentally, the said financiers are the ones who exercise the clout within the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, whose chiefs have always been CEOs from the bank headquarters of the financiers. The said banks have always acted out as the marketing agents of financial cartels, even as many nations that have followed the austere ‘structural adjustments’ imposed by them have been reduced to paupers.

 

It is high time for ‘white knights’ to appear in global finance, lending money accordingly for developmental and investment purposes at very low interest rates (lower than 1.5% annually) and at very long-term payments (25-50 years). Such institutions are now beginning to appear, but creditors remain cautious about their moves. Such institutions are autonomous from the power orbits of the Western financial cartels, are well niched in Asia (e.g. China), and appear to be creditor-friendly.

 

The reform though should go beyond the ‘white knight’ route. We must actively participate in Asia’s establishment of its own monetary fund and a single-currency regime, and take a leading role if opportunities allow. It may prove beneficial yet to re-institute a regime of gold reserve standard, which should back up the Asian currency. This same monetary fund will then serve as the regional ‘white knight’ that will provide credit to nations in need in the region and continent. The actions will also accelerate the economic cum political integration of the ASEAN and the economic integration for the entire East Asia, steps that will further stabilize the national economies and continuously sustain their respective growth. Meanwhile, a regional currency can stabilize soon enough upon its launching, that it would be a difficult job for criminal financiers to manipulate it, such as the success of the ‘Euro’ now exhibits to the globe.

 

Still another key intervention measure is the control of predatory speculation through a ‘Tobin tax’ on cross-border currency and related purchases (J. Tobin’s proposal in the early 70s). A tax of 0.75% alone on the current cross-border exchanges, which amounts to $300 Trillions annually, would generate $2.25 Trillions. The said money will then be used to fund the operations of international organizations such as the United Nations, UNDP and authentic international NGOs for social development purposes. The money can also be used by ‘white knight’ financing institutions of international scale. This set of actions will then induce reforms in the other institutions, with chain reaction effects leading to declining speculation in the long run, as the oligarchic  bankers/financiers adjust their rates to more competitive rates in the face of challenges coming from global ‘white knights’.

NATIONAL BANKING & FINANCIAL-MONETARY REFORMS

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

[Writ 23 March 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]

 

Who really is in control of a country’s central bank? Is the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas really in the hands of the people of the republic, under the guidance of the Constitution of the Republic? How come we cannot even see a shadow of any of the Letters of Intent of the International Monetary Fund that were supposedly deposited in the central bank here?

 

National banking has to be strengthened, the sovereignty of the Constitution over the banks have to be re-asserted here, and in other countries where this is applicable. I would quite say it strongly, that the Bank for International Settlements, the central banks that comprise it, and the IMF-World Bank group do not represent the interests of nations and marginal groups at all. They are appendages of the global financier oligarchy and remain to be weak vehicles under the direction of financier families and figures lurking in the shadows.

 

Look at how the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas had been systematically looted in the past, and who knows the trend continues till these days. For serving the interests of global oligarchs well, the core officials here conceal eventualities of looting under the cover of doctored accounting reports. We don’t even know any more the exact quantities and values of gold reserves here. There was massive looting of gold bars here, and who knows the trend continues.

 

There is no transparency concerning the monetary-financial-capital markets and institutions in the country and others. This had been clearly established by so many studies done in the past. Instituting transparency alone isn’t enough to strengthen these institutions.

 

The re-assertion of the central banks’ sovereignty must be done without reserve. In the Philippine case, it is the IMF that has been in control of our central bank and monetary authority. In the USA, the top financier families are the ones who really own and control the federal reserve there.

 

Where necessary, the need to institute financial-capital-monetary controls must be undertaken. Also, there must be a strong consideration for instituting an Asian Monetary Fund here, with an Asian currency backed up by gold reserves. The return to the gold standard, though in revised form, should be strongly studied and considered.

 

Without such reforms, the currency of a nation will always face the risk of being attacked by predatory underworld criminal groups tasked by their financier sponsors to destroy the same currency. Destroy a nation’s currency, and you will destroy the nation as well. Keynes and the Old Nationalists were clear about this, a contention that was amplified by the economic collapse of the Weimar republic, which saw monstrous hyper-inflation, and the scourge of depression that struck the economic giants UK, USA and Germany then.

 

This essential contention of nationalist economics must be re-echoed and re-studied. Its application though must be revised to suit the emerging context. For instance, the viability of instituting a regional currency, as exemplified by the Euro, has become a regular staple of monetary reform.

 

The excerpts from the New Nationalism article regarding the matter is reflected below.

 

Strengthen national banking and the monetary system.

 

Economic stability at all levels demands the strengthening of a national banking system, and concomitantly the strengthening of monetary system with sovereignty-backed parameters and rules. First and foremost of monetary missions is the re-assertion of the powers of the Constitution of the Republic over the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Needless to say, the country today faces a weak national bank, and necessarily a weak monetary system engendered by it. Sovereignty questions impede the effective operations of national banking in the country, as indicated by the excessive meddling of the International Monetary Fund, acting as agent of the global financial cartels, in the Bangko Sentral’s operations. The first step should be a thorough investigation by the Congress of the Republic to determine precisely who owns and controls the Bangko Sentral, and conduct related oversight functions to assess the entire consolidated assets of the said bank inclusive of unaccounted precious metals.

 

Should there be a need to institute maximum monetary controls, the national bank should be mandated by the Congress precisely to exercise such controls through a regime of currency controls, where found warranted. In no way should our national currency be subjected to attacks by predatory financier speculators, as what the latter have been doing from the mid-1997 onwards. Money is the lifeblood of the economy, and rendering our money under a regime of free exchange rates and free trade leaves us extremely vulnerable to the machinations of such greedy forces, further weakening our national economy. Monetary controls are the best antidotes to the ailment of a weak currency. Were it possible to revive a system of gold reserve standard, then let such a strategy be studied and enforced, to ensure stability in monetary concerns and the currency markets.

 

The interest rate controls should likewise continue, but the state must see to it that the rate regimes are within the bounds of sovereignty parameters, representing thereof the national interest and the subsidiary interests of the various social sectors. And, should conditions warrant, our national bank should be among the key initiators for constituting new supra-national institutions, such as an Asian Monetary Fund, thus signaling our participation in reforming the entire financial & monetary system (see below). Our involvement in an Asian Monetary Fund could be a fitful strategy to finally exit from the International Monetary Fund, further strengthening our national banking and monetary system.