PEACE TALKS BETWIXT PH GOVERNMENT & REBELS RESUME

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

We have a glad tiding of news coming from the Philippines as the stalled peace talks between government and rebel groups will resume again very soon. A heartwarming news this one is, as Filipinos are now very sick and tired of local wars. It’s time that total peace be achieved very soon.

To recall recent history, Maoist and Muslim insurgencies broke out in the Philippines way back in the early ‘70s. Martial Law, declared in 1972, was instrumental in further swelling the numbers of insurgents, leading at one point to conflicts bordering civil war proportions.

The Maoist New People’s Army, military wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines or CPP, a ragtag band at its inception, grew to a huge size across the major island groups along the way. Smaller factions split off from the CPP-NPA, it shrank in size in the past decade, yet it continues to be a threat to the central government.

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF was a splinter group from the Moro National Liberation Front or MNLF. The latter, original Muslim insurgency group agreed to a negotiated peace settlement in the ‘90s yet, so only the MILF eventually pursued the old dream of an independent state for provinces where Muslims have a strong presence. While the MNLF held a secular ideology, the MILF was largely a sectarian, Islamic movement.

Talks between both rebel groups and government stalled during the incumbency of the Gloria Arroyo regime. It was unfortunate and tragic a consequence of failed talks, as battlefronts across the islands continuously experience ambuscades and confrontations between warring forces. Collateral damage had already downsized, but it continues to be a phenomenal consequence of the hot wars.

I just hope that the peace talks won’t be for show, like a zarzuela of sorts. Like most compatriot Filipinos, I have grown tired of the wars though I see legitimacy in the advocacies of the insurgents. I myself am of the opinion that social causes are at an all-time relevance, yet these social causes can be fought for through legal and electoral means.

Filipinas has already urbanized across the decades, and urbanization is proceeding at a rapid pace. 2% of folks are added to urban population every year, while 2% are deducted from rural population during the same period. At 68% urban population today, Filipinos can better be convinced about pursuing social causes and advocacies via the ‘urban way’ of mass movements, civil society, and electoral contests rather than the bloody armed way of the old rural Philippines.

The Maoist Left and other Left groups have already proven the relative success of the ‘electoral way’ to institute structural and economic changes. It may be time now to fold up all rebel groups from the most secularly-oriented groups to the most sectarian-fundamentalist groups. The rugs under our feet are changing and the pace of change is fast, so ideological blocs should be fast enough in retooling themselves and co-directing the compass of change via the ‘urban way’.

Meantime, Norway has committed itself as a 3^rd party to the talks with the Maoists, while Malaysia has done the same to the talks with the Muslim rebels. The Filipinos down the ground welcome the peace talks, and wouldn’t squirm at the venues of talks whether these be domestically located or overseas. What matters most is peace talks are resumed and warring parties are holding genuine dialogues.

So far, confidence-building measures were already done by the Aquino regime, with the release of political prisoners from the Left. Not only that, even the political prisoners from the military rebel group Magdalo were also released (the mutiny group is ragtag/no peace talks are necessary between it and government). Development projects in areas covered by Muslim rebels are being scaled up.

A nice beginning for the year 2011 indeed, as the crucible of dialogue pervades among warring camps. Let dialogue be the strategic expression, as conflict folds up and is consigned to historical archives.

[Philippines, 06 February 2011]

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RUSSIAN STATE’S KINDNESS TO THE MAFIA OLIGARCHS

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

Russia’s federal state had exhibited kindness so far to the mafia oligarchs, one of whom is in jail (the top honcho in the energy industry). This is a clear departure from the Soviet days when organized crime leaders and subordinates were jailed by the thousands in ‘gulag archipelago’ conditions.

The Soviet days are long over in Russia, yet democracy is struggling to take root and governance institutions are strengthening from the fragmentation induced by the anarchic policies of Yeltsin who was, in reality, an agent of the British MI6. It will take some more time for democracy to show strength and resiliency, but clearly the urgency of clipping the powers of the mafia oligarchs is a matter of national security in FSB (KGB) country.

To replay recent history, the former Soviet Union fragmented in ’89 during Gorbachev’s leadership. The Russian Federation was then led by Yeltsin, puppet agent of the Anglo-European oligarchs, and got the largest shares of the pie of Soviet wealth, resources, and military assets (nuke missiles included).

Independent Russia, like the other states, was immediately confronted with the problem of shifting to a market economy. Enterprises were state-owned, and so a sacrosanct policy of the Western puppet Yeltsin was to privatize the firms upon the behest of the International Monetary Fund.

The question thereafter was: who in Russia possesses the money to buy state firms, such as those in heavy industries, oil & coal? Legitimate persons just couldn’t afford those firms no matter if the company prices are dirt cheap, so the option of buyers was the Russian mafia (organized crime groups) of which around forty-five (45) ‘families’ were the largest and most awash with money.

Such mafia groups were far more powerful, wealthy and dreadful than the Sicilian mafia from which the term ‘mafia’ originated. Without further ado, upon the go-signal from Yeltsin’s regime, mafia families gobbled up whatever firm they could lay their hands on. As a result, during the last years of Yeltsin, 80% of Russia’s corporate assets and incomes were in the hands of the mafia.

The dreadful scenario of the mafia taking hold of the nuclear and military assets of Russia soon confronted the patriots of the country. It seems that in the last instance, the FSB (former KGB) was the only institution that can mount a challenge to and clip the gargantuan influence and economic power of the mafia that was rapidly producing the new oligarchy of Yeltsin-era Russia.

And so the FSB, acting as a patriotic fraternal order of sorts, deposed Yeltsin in a silent coup of sorts. Putin, former KGB operative, became the favored leader by the chekka that decidedly took down Yeltsin. With Putin in power, returning Russia to a state of civility was now a huge task laid upon his shoulders.

Returning civility and re-asserting state sovereignty means taking back to Russia its economic powers. It was time to let the new mafia oligarchs taste justice and stop them from further fragmenting the federation. Russia was already on the verge of total fragmentation, and could have been balkanized into mini-states with Russian oligarchs taking over their own respective mini-state to govern, plunder and loot.

Thus was the British oligarchy and its MI6 dirty operators stopped from further destroying Russia and looting whatever they can from its fragile economy by buying dirt-cheap enterprises and joint venturing with Russian mafia families. Putin’s strong arm tactics, with aid from FSB, were necessary in order to restore Russia to its civility and sovereignty, without which the federation could have fragmented at the turn of the new century.

Observably, the FSB is the only solid institution that can face up to the dreaded mafia families and the Anglo-European oligarchs. In China, the equivalent group is the Communist Party that wields draconian powers to direct the compass of growth there. In Turkey, the Army is the one that performs the equivalent of a solid patriotic core that continues to modernize the country and prevent a restoration of the Caliphate.

Each country has its own set of gargantuan national security concerns to look up to, so one better understand Russia from within the context of its colossal dilemmas with the Frankenstein of mafia power. An oligarch in Russia is synonymous to a mafia godfather; oligarchic wealth, derived from criminal operations.

Hard tactics are best to clip the powers of mafia Frankensteins. However, such tactics can no longer recline on Stalinist repression or elimination as Russia is facing a new history of democratic governance. The ‘rule of law’ must be advanced to the max in a global context of strengthening democracies.

[Philippines, 04 February 2011]

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DRUG WAR IN MEXICO: HEIGHTENED PARANOIA TOWARDS MAFIA

Erle Frayne D. Argonza

 

Good day to all fellow global citizens!

 

In a previous article, I wrote about the possibility of mafia states rising to power. As tackled, Belarus could very well be the start of such a mafia state should it get entrenched for long, so the events there are worth watching. Meantime, a drug war ensues in Mexico, and so let us do some reflections about that war.

 

Over 36,000 were already declared dead due to the drug war in the country of patriot Emiliano Zapata. The war that was declared by then president Calderon ensues ceaselessly, deaths thus rising in seemingly exponential fashion by the year. That war is proving too tragic for the NAFTA country, and bodes ill for the entire North America as both the USA and Canada are experiencing their own hotfires of economic malaise.

 

To recall, Colombia was the nest of drug cartels’ power just about a decade ago. With the effective clipping of the powers of drug lords there, drug lords’ lairs became more diffused thereafter, no longer to be ever concentrated in just one country in Latin America.

 

Mexico, Jamaica, Brazil, and other countries are now experiencing the growing powers of mafia lords in Latin America. Mexico seems to be the most vulnerable to entrenchment by the drug cartels since the country is just a step away from the United States that is the main drug market in the Americas.

 

Americans indeed are the most voracious drug users, so that one may wonder whether Americans are still holding own to their nature as humans—that they haven’t already tipped over to their demonic side. A research done in the early 1980s yet showed that as much as 40% of high school students admitted to having used a narcotic at least once, with 20% admitting to having used narcotics repeatedly.

 

That was the 1980s cited, and it is now 2011 or the 2^nd decade of the 21^st century. Drug use there has been growing steadily, and so it is safe to infer that over half of Americans are hooked into narcotics. Those heavy users of drugs may be less than 10%, but that still counts around 25 to 29 millions of Americans forever dependent on narcotics.

 

Next to America would be the European Union or EU. Nobody knows exactly the level and frequency of drug use there. But given the huge 450 million population, even just a 5% heavy usage would translate to 22.5 millions of Europeans heavily dependent on narcotics. At least over a hundred millions more are moderate or non-dependent users.

 

So it isn’t difficult to see why drug trade is so lucrative a business. In my country alone, drug production and trade is a whopping $10 Billion industry, and that estimate could well be under-estimated. Drug user count here is moving up the ladder too, while the Asian and American markets are also active destinations of drug exports.

 

Going back to Mexico, it may not be accurate to just cite the American market as the sole impetus for drug production and trade there. Mexico itself has a large population, enough to absorb a very large portion of locally produced narcotics. And there is South America that very well serves as a huge backyard in the Latino world for any salivating drug lord to flood with low prized narcotics, thus ensuring big bucks to the criminal honchos’ pockets.

 

With a string of conservative governments installed from the late 90s through the present, the paranoia towards drug cartels is understandable. The same conservatives unleashed the sword of a crusade versus the drug lords who are now being hunted down in the same way that heretics were tracked down and massacred by the Church during the infamous Inquisitions around the globe.

 

Insurgents used to be top national security threats in Mexico, but that fizzled out much later. The last insurgent group Zapatistas were a ragtag peasant group in an erstwhile urban-led Mexico, and that group’s potency fizzled out as soon as its uprisings were mounted.

 

Now the drug mafias comprise the major national security threat to Mexico, or that is what the Inquisitionist conservatives want Mexicans to believe. So huge is the anti-drug Crusade that the entire machineries of military and police are engaged in large-scale offensive operations that are akin to facing men-at-war in a conventional war between conflicting nations.

 

Keen observers are noticeably irked at the rather excessive force being used to stump out drug mafias in the country. The paranoia is simply too much, the force is excessive, and so expectedly the ‘collateral damage’ of the war is proving too much for ordinary citizens caught in between the violent fireworks.

 

Mexicans should better exert efforts to bring down that paranoia and bring back the Mexican central government to reality. Mafia groups ought to be stumped out all right, but the war need not be in the vogue of a full-scale war akin to engagement in a world war.

 

[Philippines, 03 February 2011]

 

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